Skewed RC values?

[Drewk86a]

While writing my last post, this thought occurred to me:
Wouldn't the value of a redemption RC be based on how many were actually redeemed? Also - Wouldn't it be cool to know how many were redeemed?

I just pulled a Matt Niskanen expired Aritfacts RC redemption card. That RC was numbered to 599. However, since I now know, for a fact, that at least one Niskanen card was not redeemed (mine) there are actually only 598 Niskanen RCs out there.

What sort of effect would it have on the value of a card if you could go to the UD website and see that of the 99 RCs for player A, only 5 had been redeemed. Couldn't you make the argument that ths card just went from a 1/99 to a 1/5?

[gatesnapper]

is it a possiblity that companies offer un-redeemed cards as replacements for others?

[Wickabee]

I imagine it wouldn't have any bearing until at least the redemptions expire. For all intents and purposes the redemption card is the RC until it's redeemed, so I don't think it would affect the pricing too much until that point.

After that, you'll always have a card that says xxx/599 and you will only ever be able to sell it as such. I can see the knowledge of redeemed vs unredeemed vs destroyed could change some player collectors' habits, but overall xxx/599 means xxx/599 no matter what.

[reoddai]

What sort of effect would it have on the value of a card if you could go to the UD website and see that of the 99 RCs for player A, only 5 had been redeemed. Couldn't you make the argument that ths card just went from a 1/99 to a 1/5?

Doniceage takes a similar approach to the ITG redemption programs. He likes to submit his points on or very close to the last day that the program is in effect. That way, when he received the numbered card, he has a pretty good idea of the total print run.

You make some good point, but Wickabee comment is also approrpaite where "overall xxx/599 means xxx/599 no matter what." Its wrong mathematically of course, but the perception of the people trading for the card don't change. so, for the average user, its just tradebait that says its #/599 and deserved no premium.

Where it will really make an impact is in when selling in the market. Player and set collectors will slowly realize just how rare that card may be, despite the numbering on the front, and slowly, you will see sales rise as copies disappear into player collections. Over time, people who are going back trying to find these cards just... can't! As they appear on eBay they get snapped up pretty quick with bidding wars that most of us can't believe.

Cheers,
reoddai

[jagrnyr68]

i had a similar thought except with damaged cards. i bought an 09-10 Callahan OPC Retro Blank Back and it came in with a nice crease in the back. i still have it since they are very limited but it's obviously not mint so technically, theres one less out there.

for a card with a higher print run, i think it'd have to be significantly less for buyers to start taking notice. say like only 50 of the Niskanen's were redeemed, i think then buyers would pay more for it.

[30ranfordfan]

I would be very surprised if they didn't eventually hit the market as replacements anyway.

You're absolutley right - 599 copies does't mean that 599 we redeemed..... but 250 redeemed doesn't mean they destroyed the remaining ones either.

[Bauldie]

Yea the artifacts rookies are going to make it into circulation somehow via replacements etc.

The ITG HSHS cards are a different story.