Do you think the draft lottery is fixed?

[ensbergcollector]

with a lot of talk this year about the draft lottery being fixed, i wonder how many people really think so. I enjoy a good conspiracy theory but I have long been suspicious of how the lottery plays out.

Yao Ming ends up in Houston which has a large asian population
Lebron ends up in cleveland which is his home turf
derrick rose ends up in chicago which is his home turf
etc.


I know some people just say no because to think otherwise would change everything. Just curious where everyone stands

[tutall]

I guess it wouldnt shock me... I think a lot of the NBA is fixed and most games/series have pre-determind outcomes.... There are just way too many games where a bucket at the end flips the over/under or the line in vegas for it to be any other way.... Lately there have been a ton of weird things happen, as you mentioned.... Rose, LeBron, Cavs getting first pick after Bron leaves, Hornets getting a high pick after the NBA sells the team.... In any conspiracy theory you can make a case for each side but it wouldnt surprise me at all to find out it is all fixed.

[gladdyontherise]

Yes, I 100% believe it's fixed.

[drtom2005]

No it is not. It is simple stats. Since 1990, the first pick has been awarded to one of the 5 worst teams 69% of the time. These teams have have a combined chance of 81.2%. 22 years of data isn't enough time to tell. Since the new system has been ongoing, the mean has been progressing to this. If you go out to the worst 8 teams, they get the first pick 90% of the time(The first 8 have a 95.6 % chance at the first pick).

I would hope that people who hit superfractors as collectors would understand variance. When buying a case , people probably have 1 in 3 to 1 in 5 chase of hitting a superrefractor(depending on the product). Of course, we all hear stories of people pulling a superrefractor out of pack or box(chance in a box around 1 in 24 to 1 in 40). Going down to packs it becomes more unlikely, but it still happens.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

After 50-60 years of data, I might believe in a fix. By the way, how does Howard going to the Magic, Lebron going the Cavs, and Shaq going to Magic, Duncan to the Spurs, Yao to Houston really help the NBA? Wouldn't the NBA want them in L.A, Boston, or New York instead?

[cgb_orl]

After 50-60 years of data, I might believe in a fix. By the way, how does Howard going to the Magic, Lebron going the Cavs, and Shaq going to Magic, Duncan to the Spurs, Yao to Houston really help the NBA? Wouldn't the NBA want them in L.A, Boston, or New York instead?

Because fixed doesn't always mean the big teams win. That's simplifying it. Like saying boxing would want Manny to win instead because he is good for the sport. Helps fans sleep better at night knowing they aren't watching a scripted show. Same logic when it comes to the playoffs and small market teams. The L.A.s, Bostons and New Yorks will make money even when they stink. This league is about making money. To be quite honest, I wasn't that much of a skeptic until they gave what I considered to be a "pot sweetener" to Benson for agreeing to purchase the Hornets. Not to mention there's an All-Star game coming his way as well. The other thing that bothers me is why is it so important to hold the drawings in private?

[magic_bobcat]

Because fixed doesn't always mean the big teams win. That's simplifying it. Like saying boxing would want Manny to win instead because he is good for the sport. Helps fans sleep better at night knowing they aren't watching a scripted show. Same logic when it comes to the playoffs and small market teams. The L.A.s, Bostons and New Yorks will make money even when they stink. This league is about making money. To be quite honest, I wasn't that much of a skeptic until they gave what I considered to be a "pot sweetener" to Benson for agreeing to purchase the Hornets. Not to mention there's an All-Star game coming his way as well. The other thing that bothers me is why is it so important to hold the drawings in private?

Thats the bit that gets me. If its not fixed make it open!

[mrveggieman]

I say go back to the old way. Put all the team logos in a drum spin it around a few times and let the commissioner pull each team logo out. Each team has as much chance of getting the 1st pick as the do the 15th pick. Also it eliminates the incentive for teams to tank because they will not be guaranteed a higher pick for losing more games. Also show it live on tv for transperancy.

[cgb_orl]

I say go back to the old way. Put all the team logos in a drum spin it around a few times and let the commissioner pull each team logo out. Each team has as much chance of getting the 1st pick as the do the 15th pick. Also it eliminates the incentive for teams to tank because they will not be guaranteed a higher pick for losing more games. Also show it live on tv for transperancy.

I think that's why it's in private now. Also I think Stern is losing credibility every time he opens his mouth. I would have a contest and let a fan draw it. In fact how about the NBA work with their exclusive license holder and have a product that includes redemptions to be the ones to pull the envelopes?

[mrveggieman]

I think that's why it's in private now. Also I think Stern is losing credibility every time he opens his mouth. I would have a contest and let a fan draw it. In fact how about the NBA work with their exclusive license holder and have a product that includes redemptions to be the ones to pull the envelopes?

I like.

[Frantiic]

EDIT: Got my answer, was a bit quick on the reply.

EDIT 2: Has the lottery always gone down like this? Never been shown Live before?