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08-22-2012, 09:16 PM #11Dispute Assistant Manager
I think there is another factor influencing the rise in sales of Crosby cards. He has played only 1 full season in the past 5 years and it's beginning to look like his will not be a long career. So when you factor in the amount of new Crosby stuff entering the market, sell offs by people who are trying to either get money back or cut their losses and his history of injuries the market for his stuff is softening.
what others have said about Orr is definitely true. There was a time when he had very few autos and even fewer GJ's but that's changed. Plus guys like him tend to have more appeal to the older collectors who recall his playing days. The same can be said about Gretzky.
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08-22-2012, 09:24 PM #12
I think overall its just too many people collecting to make a profit rather than the fun of it.
It's all based on wealth and greed unfortunately in my opinion. Think about it.. Back in the early 80s and 90s, it was the kids going out to the card stores to rip open some packs to score the stars and rookies to show off and trade to their friends. Now fast forward to 2012 to when some packs cost $100+.. just for a PACK! Its not 12 year olds trading with their friends, its 40 year olds buying and selling to flip for a profit. I'm not saying that there's necessarily anything wrong with that, its just that the card companies have realized this trend and have used it to their advantage knowing that they'll be able to make these ridiculously high end cards, and lots of them, and people will buy the products.
I'm sure for all of us, the hobby started with us for the love of the cards and the thrill of getting that awesome card.. And I can at least speak for myself, but over the years, collecting for me has strayed away from that and has turned into a secondary cash flow.. The other day I found myself in the process of selling a really nice baseball card of my childhood hero that I had kept for a really long time, simply as a reminder of those childhood memories. The memories of staying awake past my bedtime to watch the games.. Sometimes missing school the next day since I was up until 1AM watching the end of an opposite coast game.
Wow, I just went on quite the mini rant, I forget how this even ties into Crosby, but you guys know exactly what I'm talking about. Collecting has turned into pure business. I'm not even sure it can still be called collecting... Maybe "flipping for profit" would be a better term.
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08-22-2012, 09:31 PM #13
Except they aren't making a profit. The UD Young Guns is holding it's own at $250.00 on eBay as well as the other Rookies of Sid.
The later on High-ends aren't, so unless somebody has a secret way of getting their hands on cheap Crosby's and them dumping them, profit is not being made.
Just because you hold a card for 3 years that you pulled from an expensive box does not mean you are in the profit profile. If all you did was pull boxes based on your income just to find Crosby cards, you'd soon go broke.
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08-22-2012, 11:23 PM #14
Very interesting thread, all. Love the discussion.
It seems like we're looking at two things here
1 - Market saturation. As was mentioned we're now talking about 500+ different autoed Crosby cards. Anyone who wants one (or three) has them now. Sid isn't a third year player, he's been around for nearly a decade and there's a lot of cards out there.
2 - Market peak. Crosby is never going to be at the peak he was when the Pens won the Cup in 2009 and he scored a career high 51 goals. He may certainly come back and have some excellent years -- I hope he does -- but regardless the hype is gone. Unless we're talking about winning multiple Cups, he's already been to the top. People have already seen the best he can be. There's nothing else left to do. That's not to make him sound washed up because if he can get healthy he surely isn't but that initial buzz is gone. And once something loses that initial buzz, it's nearly impossible to get it back. Again, I'm not saying he's washed up, I'm saying his popularity has almost assuredly peaked.
It's sort of like Jeremy Lin. He was HUGE, on top of the world for a few months but now he's in Houston and even if he wins a title is he ever really going to capture the lightning in a bottle again of earlier this year? No way. Same thing with Crosby -- the big difference between these two is that that this was spread over a decade for Crosby as opposed to a few months for Lin.
I have to disagree with this being about profit. centrehice hit the nail on the head. No one's making a profit busting boxes. I bought a bunch of boxes of Ultimate and for about a week the prices on the cards were nuts, but now I could get cards for half the price I would have paid a few weeks ago, some cases less than half. I've been tracking ebay prices on some of the cards I pulled for fun and the price of a Couturier Team Canada Ult Sig went from $40-50 two weeks ago to $15-20 as of the 21st. So many packs were busted and so many cards hit ebay that anyone who really wanted one got one and now the market is down -- and that's for a decently high end hit from the set, Group B sig. Tavares Ult Sigs are now down under $10 because there are a gazillion of them. If you bought a box of Ultimate today there's no way you're turning a profit aside from hitting a huge card; such as a 97 Roy, RNH or 1/1, etc. You're getting killed other wise. Think about a box with a base, non-auto rookie and a Group E sig. That fourth card better be damn good to make your money back on ebay.
At the end of the day, busting boxes and collecting cards isn't investing. It can't be, it's just not feasible. Sure, you could get a few rookies from an under the radar player and cash in when he hits it big or make some money when you gamble on a case of ultimate and hit a 1/1 but on the whole, you're not getting your money back on a box break. These cards are going to decline. Think about my ultimate examples but over many years. What cards are really going to stand up a decade from now? Rookies, super high end. That's about it. Very few people are going to want ten year old ultimate cards. Some one will, but certainly not enough to actually move the prices up.
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08-22-2012, 11:51 PM #15
Very well said. At the end of the day, this is a hobby, and it meant to be fun. Don't spend too much money on it, especially don't put your retirement investment on it. :) set a budge aside and spend within range.
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08-23-2012, 12:30 AM #16
I don't really agree with anyone here. I think the issue is way different that what people are pointing out.
1. Crosby has had serious injuries in the past few years. A lot of people have experienced buying or obtaining RCs only to have the player not pan out and the cards be hard to sell at %3 of book. People seem to be running to get ride of the cards now while they are still high so they are not stuck with cards they paid thousands for that end up being hard sales at a fraction of what is being sold.
2. If you pay attention to fans, people don't like Crosby like they did. A lot of people call him a whiner and a pre-madona now, much more than before. He is just not the worldwide favorite he used to be. Plus, to be honest, to myself and many others it looks like Malkin may be the better player.
3. Consider this, Ovechkin was always the better number player, Crosby has those skills that numbers don't track and a lot of hockey fans judge on numbers. So why was Crosby's stuff always worth more than Ovi? It just has to do with popularity. Its not the same sport but look at LeBron other than very rare high end his stuff took a huge crash leaving Cleveland and is still low. LeBron became only the second player ever to win a NBA title, Gold Medal, NBA MVP, and Finals MVP in the same year, the other being MJ. Why did his cards crash so hard? Can you HONESTLY say LeBron is not that good? Regardless of if you like him or not his is amazing, its popularity.
4. As far as the eBay thing, I recently looked at a poll on eBay's Facebook page, only like %5 or something of people have been selling on eBay for years, the vast majority of people taking that poll have only been selling for the last few months to a year. As some of us veteran eBay sellers know there are tricks to selling things, the new market of people, that changes constantly, are just not getting it. I don't know about any other eBay veterans but it took me a while to learn how to sell and I think that figures in as well.
5. Crosby is just being left behind. He was the star player to collect to hold onto so you could make that big payday later. Just this year RNH, Quick, Pietrangelo, Karlson, Giroux, Malkin, and several other players gained ground in a year Crosby lost ground. Now you have Yaku, Suter, Parise, Nash, Jagr, and others coming in or moving which could provide a big boost to their career, Crosby is just not the great investment he used to be.
This is just what I think, none of us can tell for sure. I know as far as I go, I used to always look for those Crosby GU and Autos, I don't care about the new ones, I want the old ones, the RCs, second year autos, and 2009 ones (Cup winning year) Now, I am not even entertaining the thought of dropping a few hundred or thousand on a Crosby card. He is in that area with Pronger, one good smash hit and it could very well be over (Pronger looks to be done to me) It is really going to suck if you are holding 10 or 15 autos and patches if he has a short career. Look at how good Bossy was but due to a short career this generation acts like Bossy was a mid level player at best when, IMO, if he was able to play as long as Gretzky or Lemieux he would be right up there with them, maybe even better. A lot of younger people I talk to don't even know the Islanders won 4 Cups in a row and just how great Bossy was, I think this is the fear with Crosby moving forward and I can say this is my fear as to why I am not looking for his cards anymore, even for trade bait.
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08-23-2012, 02:16 AM #17
Madonna is much older, there's no way he's a Pre-Madonna. She's old enough to be him Mum.
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08-23-2012, 05:04 AM #18
I have 2 highend crosby cards and ive been trying to sell them for very long time now, i had many interested buyers but none so far has been willing to buy cards for reasnoable price, if im gonna almost give away the cards free its not that fun really to loose big money on cards you bought just a few years ago i dont get it, it seems people want highend but few want to pay price what is reasonable in my book.
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08-23-2012, 06:36 AM #19
That is the issue. The prices have gone down. Check ebay and you will likely see the offer you are getting are consistent with what the cards actual sell for and not what you paid for them a few years ago when they were at a high point after the Pens Cup win. Everyone is trying to de-invest in Crosby cards but the ones who are buying are looking to get really good deals on them believing Crosby will win multiple Cups and stay healthy scoring 100+ point seasons. If Crosby plays a full 82 games this season I'd bank on 120 points. If the Pens stay relatively healthy and Fleury is back to form then they are the Cup favourites.
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08-23-2012, 08:02 AM #20
Do not underestimate Crosby. Price's have gone down (rookie year hanging on), but Sid strikes back.
We will see.
Harri
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Originally Posted by deJKHnSe 
