Common Superstar Autos

[87sluggo]

If the NHL & the PA declared tomorrow that they would license only 10 trading card sets per year, and no more than 4 sets per any single manufacturer, I'd welcome it.

The manufacturers, PA, and NHL would hate it though - becuase it would hurt their bottom line.

UD Series 1 will be a HUGE hit when it comes out next month. Why? Becuase people will be chasing about a dozen of the 50 rookies, the canvas versions of many, the serial numbered versions of all rookies, and that's about it. When that's the market that companies are trying to cater to - why would they change?

That's it in a nutshell..........as long as the market exists for the products, as long as we're lining up for it, the companies will continue to churn it out. Business is business after all, and they're just giving the people what they still want. The "industry" has expanded and contracted at least twice in the last 20 years, who knows how long this bubble will last?

I've never broken a tin/box/pack of The Cup either. Or Dominion, or Superlative or Prime or even Ultimate. But I've bought what I like from the breaks from eBay or here on SCF or at the card shows........ Some guy spent $500+ on last year's The Cup and I got a Canucks quad jersey /10 for twenty dollars from it. Sooner or later that guy's going to get sick of spending that money for that kind of return, and he'll stop. And then the market will correct itself again. That's how I look at it.

But yeah, nothing will ever be "rare" again, and that's a shame............

[Fred Bear]

If the NHL & the PA declared tomorrow that they would license only 10 trading card sets per year, and no more than 4 sets per any single manufacturer, I'd welcome it.

The manufacturers, PA, and NHL would hate it though - becuase it would hurt their bottom line.

UD in particular, but card manufacturers in general, yes - that's what they have done. They've taken a kids hobby, and turned it into big business. I don't think you need anywhere near $25k to 'compete' in this hobby though. IMO - I don't really care what other people want to collect, what they deem to be "good" cards. I haven't spent anywhere near that, but I don't feel I've really missed out on any cards that I truely wanted for my collection.

At the end of the day, it's supposed to be fun. Sure, rookie cards from "The Cup" are more desirable than ones from any other set..... and while I'll admit that I would love to own a Taylor Hall ARP /99, without even going to eBay - I know that the price is something far more than I would spend on it, so I don't even bother looking.


I do agree though, the way this hobby has shifted over the last 15 years will (eventually) be its undoing. The contents of most boxes are throwaways now, becuase so many people have no interest in sets, despite the fact that manufacturers keep making them.


UD Series 1 will be a HUGE hit when it comes out next month. Why? Becuase people will be chasing about a dozen of the 50 rookies, the canvas versions of many, the serial numbered versions of all rookies, and that's about it. When that's the market that companies are trying to cater to - why would they change?

I disagree.

The 'less' products solution is only going to raise prices, not value. To increase value, you have to increase demand. How do you increase demand, though? It sounds over-simplified, I know, but if supply remains the same, but demand increases, secondary market value goes up. Every card that's been produced is already out there - fixed supply... All we need are new collectors.

The manufacturers, ultimately, can't (or won't) do it. They will put the product out there, but they can't generate hockey fans and 'new' collectors are such a small fraction of their business, it's not one they want/care to push. Look at what they've done with 'entry' level products over the last couple years. Score just doubled in price and Victory/MVP got dropped. I got into the hobby because my old man would buy me 3 Topps packs for a buck (or less) while he was picking up cigarettes or whatever at the corner store. Now I can't get 3 packs for less than $5 and I have to go to Target or Walmart to even do that. I understand that 2010 economics are different than 1980 economics, but the barrier to entry needs to be low to get people involved.

The undoing of the hobby, if it ever comes to that, will be that there are no new collectors.

I could go on-and-on because it's a topic I'm passionate about, but I'm not going to derail the OPs thread. Suffice it to say that I believe collectors do more to hurt the hobby than they realize. Kids learn behaviors and they aren't born to look for autos and game-used hits or even 'value' in a pack or a box. Those are concepts that 'seasoned' collectors use to describe and compare products. I've seen it happen a number of times where a young collector is excited hitting a base card of their team only to become discouraged by an adult collector because he didn't get a box/case hit of an auto/patch.

As you pointed out, it should be fun.

If we, as current collectors, each replaced ourselves five times over, that's 5x the number of Orr/Howe/Lemieux/Gretzky autos that's needed to fill collections. If each of those collectors generates that much interest, we're talking 25x. What looks like over-production today might not look so bad tomorrow provided we do a little work to grow our hobby...

[jmatchett]

If we, as current collectors, each replaced ourselves five times over, that's 5x the number of Orr/Howe/Lemieux/Gretzky autos that's needed to fill collections. If each of those collectors generates that much interest, we're talking 25x. What looks like over-production today might not look so bad tomorrow provided we do a little work to grow our hobby...

I really doubt there will be even a 1x replacement for the next generation. The hobby is probably going to collapse on itself in the next 20 years.

Part of it is price of the "cool" products. But another part is that cards don't let you play games, don't have crazy changing colors. They're pieces of cardboard and ink that sometimes have a cool holographic/refractive feel. That's not what kids today want, so it falls on collectors to get their kids into it, and I don't think it's going to happen on a 1x replacement basis. When I was growing up, there were 3 card stores within 10 minutes of me and another 3 within 20. Right now, one of them exists, and all they have is football. It may be different in Canada, but I just see the whole hobby pricing itself out and not having enough collectors.

[Fred Bear]

I really doubt there will be even a 1x replacement for the next generation. The hobby is probably going to collapse on itself in the next 20 years.

Part of it is price of the "cool" products. But another part is that cards don't let you play games, don't have crazy changing colors. They're pieces of cardboard and ink that sometimes have a cool holographic/refractive feel. That's not what kids today want, so it falls on collectors to get their kids into it, and I don't think it's going to happen on a 1x replacement basis. When I was growing up, there were 3 card stores within 10 minutes of me and another 3 within 20. Right now, one of them exists, and all they have is football. It may be different in Canada, but I just see the whole hobby pricing itself out and not having enough collectors.

But that's a choice, either by you or by others. I don't believe it has to be that way.

When I was a kid, I had 5 card shops within 15 minutes of home and another 5-10 if you wanted to drive a half hour. There were maybe three of us that actually collected hockey (put together sets) more than to break a couple packs or participate in random pack wars. When I moved out here, I had 1 and I was pretty much the only hockey collector (again, outside of a few random box/pack breaks). I got great deals on 3-yr old unopened product, lol. After the owner passed, I have 0 within a 2 hour drive of me, but I still choose to collect. If I choose not to share my hobby and what I enjoy with the next generation of collectors, that's on me - nobody else. It's not because of the high prices, it's not because of over production, it's because I'm not able to convey the positive aspects of the hobby.

I don't mean for it to sound all rosy or holy-than-thou. I 100% understand frustration. But like I said... complaining in front of an 8-yr old that you (or they) didn't hit a $100 auto doesn't help the hobby one bit. For all the pitfalls of the hobby, we each find some joy in it otherwise we wouldn't do it. If we can't take a few minutes to convey that to kids in a shop or at a show, then, yes, the hobby stands a good chance of falling off. But it's not because of anything UD did...

[odjickfan]

I disagree.

The 'less' products solution is only going to raise prices, not value. To increase value, you have to increase demand. How do you increase demand, though? It sounds over-simplified, I know, but if supply remains the same, but demand increases, secondary market value goes up. Every card that's been produced is already out there - fixed supply... All we need are new collectors.

The manufacturers, ultimately, can't (or won't) do it. They will put the product out there, but they can't generate hockey fans and 'new' collectors are such a small fraction of their business, it's not one they want/care to push. Look at what they've done with 'entry' level products over the last couple years. Score just doubled in price and Victory/MVP got dropped. I got into the hobby because my old man would buy me 3 Topps packs for a buck (or less) while he was picking up cigarettes or whatever at the corner store. Now I can't get 3 packs for less than $5 and I have to go to Target or Walmart to even do that. I understand that 2010 economics are different than 1980 economics, but the barrier to entry needs to be low to get people involved.

The undoing of the hobby, if it ever comes to that, will be that there are no new collectors.

I could go on-and-on because it's a topic I'm passionate about, but I'm not going to derail the OPs thread. Suffice it to say that I believe collectors do more to hurt the hobby than they realize. Kids learn behaviors and they aren't born to look for autos and game-used hits or even 'value' in a pack or a box. Those are concepts that 'seasoned' collectors use to describe and compare products. I've seen it happen a number of times where a young collector is excited hitting a base card of their team only to become discouraged by an adult collector because he didn't get a box/case hit of an auto/patch.

As you pointed out, it should be fun.

If we, as current collectors, each replaced ourselves five times over, that's 5x the number of Orr/Howe/Lemieux/Gretzky autos that's needed to fill collections. If each of those collectors generates that much interest, we're talking 25x. What looks like over-production today might not look so bad tomorrow provided we do a little work to grow our hobby...

In my opinion, to get new collectors, card companies should get back to doing promos with restaurants like the McDonalds sets from the 90s/early 00. A Tim Hortons hockey set at a good price per pack might help bringing in new collectors. New collectors = more future cashflow for card companies.

[jmatchett]

In my opinion, to get new collectors, card companies should get back to doing promos with restaurants like the McDonalds sets from the 90s/early 00. A Tim Hortons hockey set at a good price per pack might help bringing in new collectors. New collectors = more future cashflow for card companies.

That's a fantastic idea. I loved the old McD sets. Sadly, right now I think UD and Panini are comfortable just riding the wave.

[30ranfordfan]

Fred Bear makes some excellent points. While I think cutting supply would boost prices, increasing demand (i.e. new collectors) is ultimatley what needs to happen.... and as others have posted, unless another generation of kids picks this hobby up - it will go away.

Doesn't matter if you're talking about the Expo in Toronto, or a much smaller local show, most the people I see at card shows are my age (early 30s) maybe a bit younger, and lots that are older. There are very few kids at these shows. When I was 17 and at a card show, you saw a ton of people my age..... and lots that were there with their parents, and significantly younger.



The McDonalds thing - I agree. I think it's a great idea, and it does help promote the hobby with kids. I can say with near certainty that it was not Upper Deck's idea to scrap that release though. I remember reading somewhere that it accounted for about a third of the profits they make off hockey cards. That call was made by McDonalds, ending all "premium" promotions. If McDonalds, Tim Hortons, or any other restaurant chain wanted to do something like that again - I'm sure either manufacturer would be all over it.