Discussion: RFAs this offseason

[scottkoz20]

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[RGM81]

Agree that it’s likely. So many teams against the cap.

[Savard18]

Hey, I'm a Crowder fan, lol...

Obviously the biggest name out there will be Marner and you know what? that kid is going to get poached...

Come July, 1st there will be a lot of great free agents..... And you know what? HOPE Marner gets poached - and I hope he's poached by the Islanders..... What did Shanahan think was going to happen when "they" signed Tavares??.... Signing Tavares was a STUPID move by Shanahan ..... I know he's a great player but did he NOT see the future of the Leafs? ..... And teams aren't going to help him selloff players to help him sign Marner - that is just ridiculous.... Shanahan and Co are now backed into a corner and they didn't even make it past the first round...... Sorry but in my opinion - the Leafs are screwed.... They will have ZERO depth next season because they have only 2 options - keep Marner or keep their depth...... I mean they're not going to get market value for their depth players....

Look, as a Hawks fan I have seen it happen....

I know Leafs fans are pissed but ...... Man, Shanahan (and Co) really "screwed the pooch" as they say on this one...

[Savard18]

IMO, if I has Stan Bowman I would make and offer to Shanahan and Co of this:

A 2020 1st round pick and a 2021 2nd round pick for Kadri & Reilly or Gardiner..... OR I offersheet Marner, lol...

You see, most teams cant afford to make that offer... They're restrained by the salary cap OR cant afford to give up the picks knowing what these players will cost against the salary cap...

So yea, watch Stan Bowman bend Shanahan and Co over the table....

These are only my opinions but if I was in Bowman's position and was an NHL GM I would absolutely prey on the Leafs "cap hell"....

And the Leafs have quite a few players that could turn the Hawks into a super-team for a very long time -- AGAIN!!!!

[zunato]

IMO, if I has Stan Bowman I would make and offer to Shanahan and Co of this:

A 2020 1st round pick and a 2021 2nd round pick for Kadri & Reilly or Gardiner..... OR I offersheet Marner, lol...

You see, most teams cant afford to make that offer... They're restrained by the salary cap OR cant afford to give up the picks knowing what these players will cost against the salary cap...

So yea, watch Stan Bowman bend Shanahan and Co over the table....

These are only my opinions but if I was in Bowman's position and was an NHL GM I would absolutely prey on the Leafs "cap hell"....

And the Leafs have quite a few players that could turn the Hawks into a super-team for a very long time -- AGAIN!!!!

Teams that can afford to sign Marner still will not do it. It's not worth giving up a bunch of high picks for. Teams will wait for the Leafs to come to them offering trades. The Leafs, as the Hawks had to do, will end up having to trade some of their prospects away just to dump salary.

As for the Hawks, Bowman would never offer that trade. If he was to go after one of the Leafs dmen it would be Muzzin and maybe Zaitsev. Or just wait until July 1st when Gardiner becomes a UFA.

I think this will be a very active off season. There are 11 teams with less then $12 million in cap space with 14 teams with more then $20 million in space.

[scottkoz20]

the player that would target would not be Marner; but Sebastian Aho.

yes - Carolina has nearly $30 million in space, but this is also a team that is a floor team and has an internal cap. Part of the reason they sold off Skinner was because they were not going to be willing/able to get $8 mill, let alone $9 million.

Now, here is an intriguing route for a team IMO... not the 7 year, but go 4-5 years (like Matthews) and walk him up his UFA season.

AS a Sabre fan, I would not mind them swinging to see if a 4 year/42.3 Million (10.575 Million) would be something that the Canes match or if you have make a deal in order to do it. And yes, the Sabres will have the space to do it. Do not be shocked if they can flip out Sobotka or Scandella with something else to get them off the cap for this season..

[30ranfordfan]

the player that would target would not be Marner; but Sebastian Aho.

yes - Carolina has nearly $30 million in space, but this is also a team that is a floor team and has an internal cap. Part of the reason they sold off Skinner was because they were not going to be willing/able to get $8 mill, let alone $9 million.

Now, here is an intriguing route for a team IMO... not the 7 year, but go 4-5 years (like Matthews) and walk him up his UFA season.

AS a Sabre fan, I would not mind them swinging to see if a 4 year/42.3 Million (10.575 Million) would be something that the Canes match or if you have make a deal in order to do it. And yes, the Sabres will have the space to do it. Do not be shocked if they can flip out Sobotka or Scandella with something else to get them off the cap for this season..

If you really want to go after the Leafs, there's a better way to do it:

Instead of 4-5 years, you go two:

Offer him a two year deal, worth 20.2 million (total). That number is important, as it's as high as you can go to keep the compensation down.
10.2 AAV would cost you 4x 1st. 10.1 AAV costs 2x 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd.

Next, you backload the deal. 8.1 million in the first year, 12.1 million in the second. Maybe you have to pay the bulk of the first year as a singing bonus.

What does that do? After two years.... you'll have to offer him a raise on the 12.1 million, not the 10.1 AAV, eating a bigger chunk of their cap going forward. It also puts him only two years away from UFA status.

You could hurt the Leafs even more (potentially) by giving him a 3 year offer sheet. Doing the same thing.... 8, 9.5, 12.5 (something like that). After three years: If he just signed a qualifying offer (a raise on 12.5) he'd be UFA at the end of the season.


Plus, if you signed Marner to a high AAV offer sheet, if the Leafs do match, you could then target a guy like Kapanen by offer him something like 4m x 5 years, which is only worth a 2nd round pick.

[scottkoz20]

like I mentioned, I would not go after Marner - I can't see any situation where they fail to match and let Marner walk. I was talking to @ravens_creed a bit about this over the weekend and I still think the Leafs are going to deal Nylander and use that money for Marner. I also think that there is going to be a team that would potentially trade for both Willie and Alex from Buffalo, but that is a different topic.

As for other Leaf UFAs - I do see Kapanen and Andreas Johansson being targets.


for those interested, here is something cap friendly has with this on the compensation for RFAs - https://www.capfriendly.com/offer-sheet-calculator

[30ranfordfan]

like I mentioned, I would not go after Marner - I can't see any situation where they fail to match and let Marner walk. I was talking to @ravens_creed a bit about this over the weekend and I still think the Leafs are going to deal Nylander and use that money for Marner. I also think that there is going to be a team that would potentially trade for both Willie and Alex from Buffalo, but that is a different topic.

As for other Leaf UFAs - I do see Kapanen and Andreas Johansson being targets.


for those interested, here is something cap friendly has with this on the compensation for RFAs - https://www.capfriendly.com/offer-sheet-calculator

Yeah, I wasn't talking about Buffalo specifically - but if someone identified Marner as the guy they wanted to target, that's how you do it (IMO). You're probably right: The Leafs will match, regardless...... but another team could put them in an even worse state of cap hell if they really try to do it.

Dealing Nylander makes sense as a means to free up money (sign Marner, the other RFAs, and they have to spend somthing on the blueline).


They could be in a real world of hurt though. 83 million is the projected cap, and they already have 74 million tied up in salaries. Marner, Kapanen, and Johannson need to be resigned, and Ennis replaced (or brought back?). Hainsey & Gardiner need to be replaced on the blue line.

Teams are only allowed to go over the cap by 10% in the offseason. This is where the final year of Nathan Horton could also bite them. He's got a 5.3 million cap hit.... and while he'll be on LTIR again next year, that 5.3 does count against their Cap+10% overage in the summer. They can't have more than (about) 92 milion in salary, on the books, at any given time.

If they're already at 74, and an offersheet (that they match) ties up 10 in Marner.... plus the 5.3 for Horton: They could be looking at July 3rd, and have almost zero wiggle room. They'd have less than 3m in overage left - they couldn't even pursue a decent dman in free agency until they clear cap space.

[scottkoz20]

the player that would target would not be Marner; but Sebastian Aho.

yes - Carolina has nearly $30 million in space, but this is also a team that is a floor team and has an internal cap. Part of the reason they sold off Skinner was because they were not going to be willing/able to get $8 mill, let alone $9 million.

Now, here is an intriguing route for a team IMO... not the 7 year, but go 4-5 years (like Matthews) and walk him up his UFA season.

AS a Sabre fan, I would not mind them swinging to see if a 4 year/42.3 Million (10.575 Million) would be something that the Canes match or if you have make a deal in order to do it. And yes, the Sabres will have the space to do it. Do not be shocked if they can flip out Sobotka or Scandella with something else to get them off the cap for this season..

I'm amending to this because for the purposes of the compensation, only 5 years is taken into account and divided by the total amount... Meaning a 7yr with a Total Value: $52,850,000 (Cap Hit of 7550000) would be 4 - 1st round picks

https://www.capfriendly.com/offer-sheet-calculator


SO - for a team like Carolina that is a floor team AND seems to have an internal budget AND has holes to fill due to expiring contracts, I think its fair to ask at what point would they say no signing Aho and take the compensation?

AS a Sabre fan, I would love to see this happen because at some point, you have to stop drafting in the Top 8 can get back to the Playoffs.

Now the other side to that coin, the 2020 Draft might be LOADED... but for teams - like Buffalo, Edmonton, Florida (ok, not Florida) - I think you have to find talent that can help you win now and get the picks into the 20's where its less of a sure thing....

just my 2 cents (2.6 cents in Canadian )