Is the party over?

[doniceage]

Yeah @doniceage because Extended is over-produced and isn't particularly great. Cherry-picking ONE bad 2020-21 that was a dog isn't a reflection at all of pricing of new products.

Take a look at SP Authentic - my LCS was selling it at $350CAD for a while...they were getting calls from other shops across Canada because they all wanted to know how they were that low. For SPA, which was historically in the $150-$180 range. It has literally more than doubled and they're offering fewer autographs per box. SPA and the other higher-end products have increased significantly while delivering fewer hits. Shrinkflation, as they call it. You're paying more and getting less. It used to be that if you dropped $200 on a box of Ultimate and got skunked, it hurt but you can get over it. At $300 though, when your big hit is a Logan Stanley auto (no offence, Jets fans) that sells for $10....people aren't going to be going back to that well again.

They're saying that for the first time ever, you can probably expect that 2023-24 UD1 is going to be allocated because of Connor Bedard. The distributors are already telling the hobby shops that if they don't up their orders on stuff for 2022-23 products, they may not be able to get what they want for Bedard. Take a look at the very weak Series 1 checklist for this year....the shops are going to be sitting on it just like they are with prior years of Extended. And who is going to get the costs passed on to? That's right, the consumer.

20% increases (as your chart implies) at a time when people are already getting squeezed in their day-to-day lives is not sustainable and it is absolutely not accessible for the average collector.

Richard,
See you share the mentality of the new stuff like most folks which I never have gotten into. As usually when you pay early you get less in the long run. On a few select rookies you might lose but the majority like 95 percent and up you will get it cheaper down the road. You remember the box of UD series 1 we broke that the Cale Makar came out of I bought a case at a box price at 62.50. I thought that was a good price so bought a case which I have sitting in the closet. I think anyone can afford that price and you might say it is overproduced and it is a okay product just like the extended. Problem is everything produced now is probably overproduced compared to product print run in the recent past. It reminds me of the UD Griffey rookie that was suppose to be a high end product but was supposed to be limited but they made more, more, more, and more and it became so oversaturated the market tanked. I truly think that Panini and Upper Deck are truly trying to get the dollars out of the hobby as long they can before the downturn. If enough folks stopped buying the cards we would see wholesalers lowering prices dramatically on boxes. Until, the collectors stop throwing dollars at the hobby why should anything change.
Your mention of the allocation and that has been true for many years on THE CUP and other products by Panini and Topps if you wanted the real limited cases etc. If Upper Deck truly does stick to their guns on this and the dealers balk what will happen. Wholesalers will have the whole allotment and they will probably be able to sell it lower than what the Upper Deck is soliciting currently with the guarantee to get the product. A dealer can only get stuck with so much product in the long run. Hence, why so many small dealers just oder their boxes thru a wholesaler instead of being direct with the larger companies etc.

Just think there are good deals to be had out there if you take your time to be patient if you like to gamble with boxes. I do not like to gamble hence why mainly remain closed.
@RGM81

DON

[pwaldo]

It is absolutely brutal. I've passed on many cards on eBay in recent months from US sellers. The sale price ends up being lower because Canadians aren't willing to pay $15USD on a $20USD card. It's lose-lose for everybody involved.

Yup. I've slowed down my trading on here because it just isn't worth it unless it is a larger deal and it is very difficult to find somebody that has more than a couple cards I need. If they won't do a PWE then I just have to move on.

[WillyC]

The party won't be over for quite a while, the price of boxes and online breaking has become very much like a gambling addiction... it would be like all the casinos disappearing.

IMO, the hobby is being saturated with product and parallels.

[discomike]

Raises many questions about the inceasing cost of poducts. I'm sure The Cup costs more to prodeuce than OPC, or UD Series 1 & 2. However, there is less quantity produced to offset the increased costs. As with many items, the entry level stuff probably has a slim profit margin which means there is not much room to lower the prices. The high end stuff, however, likely yields much more profit and could be reduced and still give UD a tidy profit. It seems, at least to me, that UD is pricing poducts on the value of the secondary market and not on the cost to produce.

If UD produces a card of The Cup 1/1 Wayne Gretzky Patch Auto, at a cost of $50 ( made up number) but that card sells for $2,000 on eBay, wouldn't UD feel like they should get a piece of that? So, they raise the price far above what the actual poduction cost + reasonable profit would dictate. They produce a $50 card that is "worth" $2,000.so they pice The Cup as if evey card is (could be) a $2,000 cardand the buyer is gambling on whether they get that $2,000 card

It would be easy to say, "Stop buying The Cup and it will force them to lower the cost" but I don't think it's that easy. Thee are still people with enough cash who arre willing to pay,

I think you hit upon the key word there, 'gambling.' A lot of collectors 'have' to buy the cards, to feed their habit. Which it makes it easier for Upper Deck or Panini to charge what ever they want for the products, because many of the 'addicts' can't stop. At what point does this stop being a hobby and become a full-blown addiction?

[discomike]

Just some thoughts on the prices going down. I get may newsletters and here is how the price per sport was broken down in a recent e-mail.



@RGM81

Look at this price point so I think the price point is not inaccessible if you take the time to make the move at the right time.





I probably should have ordered more but I do not truly do the breaks anymore so there really no reason to order that many to have them sitting in a closet. I think that is a awesome price point in my opinion and any collector on here can afford that price.

Think Steel City Collectibles and Dave and Adams has them both for 45 each.

DON

Zephyr Epic also has had the 20-21 Extended retail boxes on sale for $42.50 each. Just ordered a couple of boxes (free shipping on orders over $50).

[odjickfan]

Zephyr Epic also has had the 20-21 Extended retail boxes on sale for $42.50 each. Just ordered a couple of boxes (free shipping on orders over $50).

UD1 21-22 retail for 67CAD and OPC 21-22 blasters for 16CAD. At those prices, I had to try again!

[doniceage]

UD1 21-22 retail for 67CAD and OPC 21-22 blasters for 16CAD. At those prices, I had to try again!

I cannot blame you as those are good prices imo. Hopefully, you get lucky and get a nice pull here or there in your break.


DON

[odjickfan]

I cannot blame you as those are good prices imo. Hopefully, you get lucky and get a nice pull here or there in your break.


DON

thank you! I'd love to pull a Caufield YG, and OPC is just so much fun to open!

[chakhae1]

I'll chime in with my two cents here. The hockey card market as we all know has always been secondary to most card collectors out there and the pandemic all showed us all that even though parts of the this market blew up along with the rest of it, large portions of it remained stagnant. Over the past several months, those trends continue but if you are not named Ovechkin, Crosby or a top tier star, prices have fallen at least a little bit.

For example I was pretty surprised to see the other day that Caufield YGS were at were they were and even more surprised to see how low Zegras YGs were raw. Box prices have also gone down to an almost respectable price for the lower end stuff such as Series 1 and 2 and the mid and higher end stuff also took a major hit back down to reality.

All these signs are good, but is it a buyer's market? Nope. It is a more friendly buyer's market, but the current state of the hobby dictates that the hobby will stay where it's at until everyone is more comfortable in the sports card market.

[cjb]

ZE has some great deals depending on the time of year. They had boxes of this year's extended hobby for $92 and last year's blaster boxes for $12. Couldn't say no.