The Future of Sports cards?

[JeRmZ]

I was sitting back thinking last night about this and was wondering what some other collectors would say.
If you look back at the history of sports cards it goes back pretty far. Today if you look at some of the vintage cards that are selling very well you could almost have considered it an investment to buy and hold those cards back then (long term of course). With the Vintage cards though the print runs were probably crazy high and the only reason that so few of them are still around is that people didn't know what they had .... right?
so if you look at today's cards and some of them with very very very low print runs, the knowledge people have of all major sports and sports cards do you think that say in 50,60-70 years from now our 2006-2007 cards will be looked at as vintage and carry the value close to if not better than say a 55 Topps All American Jim Thorpe or a Payton rookie etc. etc. etc.
I just got to thinking about my collection, which doesn't include too much stuff that may turn out to be a "investment" but somewhere down the road these players we are all collecting now will be the "Jim Thorpe's" of the new age and people could possibly be paying big money for them.

Is this all irrellevant or does it make some sort of sense?
Whats your opinion?

[ashley832]

Yep, makes sense. I dont think I've thought about it exactly like you have but I have thought about it. Like when I'm old the cards from the last couple of years that seem new will be many many years old. And the look of them will probably change drastically considering how they have already changed in the last 10 years or so. It'd be interesting to see what they'll look like and what the newer collectors many years from now will think about the older cards. It'd be weird too because there'd be a whole new set of Nascar drivers while I'd bet most of the ones around today will more than likely be retired when I get old. LOL

Ashley

[sivjosh]

I think most people buying today's cards for investment purposes will be pretty disappointed in 25-30-35 years. The cards people consider "good" fetch pretty big prices right off the printing press. There isn't enough room for growth to replicate how a card from the 50s grew in value to today.

[Ducks1978]

I think most people buying today's cards for investment purposes will be pretty disappointed in 25-30-35 years. The cards people consider "good" fetch pretty big prices right off the printing press. There isn't enough room for growth to replicate how a card from the 50s grew in value to today.

Totally agree with Siv. That and its not like they can make the cards more limited. Which is what drives a collectable market in the 1st place.

[JeRmZ]

All very true but there still should be some buzz if the collecting community stays active and alive. Someone somewhere will be trying to grab say a Payton Manning red ruby parallel auto #'d/5 just like today there are collectors trying to find that Prisitne 10 Walter Payton rookie.

I've also got this posted over at Beckett and so far the answers are pretty even.

[OnePimpTiger]

I've thought about this some too and I haven't really reached a conclusion. There are a few factors that I think about and possible scenarios. A couple of things people have mentioned, such as print run sizes and people knowing to keep their cards. The print runs for each card are much smaller, but there are many many more cards out there now...so I kinda think that even though each individual card may be harder to get, the fact that there are a lot of different cards of each player, RC, etc will keep them from getting to valuable. Also, since people know now to keep their cards, a good card in good shape won't be as hard to find.

But on the other hand, I'm a firm believer of cycles...weather, economics, social styles, etc. Back in the day, people didn't pay as much attention to cards, threw them out or parents threw them out, put them in bicycle spokes, etc. and those cards are now worth big bucks because it's hard to find them and especially in good condition. Now cards are big business and everyone knows to treat them with care. But I think eventually, and possibly pretty soon from the look of the market, things are going to become vastly over saturated and the hobby will go down hill. Card companies will go out of business, or at least shrink the number of brands and/or print runs they produce, not as many people will collect, and there will be kind of a trading card depression. But as with all cycles, it'll come back around, get popular again, and the people that kept collecting and most importantly kept the old stuff through the "depression" might see some "returns on investment."

Or maybe I just took too many crazy pills this morning.

[sivjosh]

This is a good observation.

Eventually, those of us that consider ourselves collectors will rebel against the un-collectable 1/1s and /5s, etc. That will take away the gambling aspect of buying cards and the card companies will need to have good ideas and execute them well. That's what I think.

But on the other hand, I'm a firm believer of cycles...weather, economics, social styles, etc. Back in the day, people didn't pay as much attention to cards, threw them out or parents threw them out, put them in bicycle spokes, etc. and those cards are now worth big bucks because it's hard to find them and especially in good condition. Now cards are big business and everyone knows to treat them with care. But I think eventually, and possibly pretty soon from the look of the market, things are going to become vastly over saturated and the hobby will go down hill. Card companies will go out of business, or at least shrink the number of brands and/or print runs they produce, not as many people will collect, and there will be kind of a trading card depression. But as with all cycles, it'll come back around, get popular again, and the people that kept collecting and most importantly kept the old stuff through the "depression" might see some "returns on investment."