The Bradley Effect

[RenegadeLonghorn]

Obama's going to win, right? Think again.

The term Bradley effect, less commonly called[1] the Wilder effect, refers to a proposed explanation for a frequently observed discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.[2][3][4] Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

In sum, Obama's 11% Gallup lead in the polls could really mean he's barely ahead. We really won't know until election day. We still have 3+ weeks to go.

[OnePimpTiger]

Very interesting. I think that pre- and even to some degree post-election polls aren't exactly accurate anyway, but in the case of a black candidate running against a white candidate, I can see how that might increase the discrepancy. I had never really thought about it before, though, thanks for the post.

[streicher187]

There was a yahoo poll where 40 percent of Dem. White voters had a negative impression of African Americans and 5% wouldn't vote for him for that reason(and that's democrats)..

With that going against him, Voter purges, and the shady practices of the Rep. it's to hard to overcome (even with Acorn voting dead people).. The voter Purge cost Gore in Florida and there was a bigger one this year...

[randallcards]

i told everyone this before, Networks will be stupid and call the election for Obama based on Exit polls and McCain will win.............just because of this fact!!

[randallcards]

There was a yahoo poll where 40 percent of Dem. White voters had a negative impression of African Americans and 5% wouldn't vote for him for that reason(and that's democrats)..

With that going against him, Voter purges, and the shady practices of the Rep. it's to hard to overcome (even with Acorn voting dead people).. The voter Purge cost Gore in Florida and there was a bigger one this year...

o hold on Rebublican Shaddy Practices? are u kidding me>? lol OMG thats all Democrats know how to do this Election and thats all Obamas done his whole life.....