2022/23 Upper Deck ICE, watered down

[ronfir]

Had the day off work for the MLK holiday so I stopped by the local to try my luck on 2022/23 Upper Deck. This used to be one of my favorite Upper Deck products but that is NO longer the case. In my opinion the last two years, Upper Deck has watered down the product so much it is not worth the effort to buy.

Here are the best of today's break. I won't be buying any more:









I hit a 99 rookie of some guy not in the league so I didn't scan the card. Linas Sandin

I did hit this 99 rookie so my streak of pulling a 99 rookie continues. Sadly I didn't hit on in McDavid's rookie year



That's it

[gummer11]

You did well. I went into a 12 box break and there was only two big hits, Sacik auto/patch #/5 and a Horvat auto/patch #/25. There were a couple RCs #/99, but like yours, unknown.
The Potvin auto is nice

[odjickfan]

The Savard auto is very nice! I agree with you that Ice is watered down. In facts, most products in the past few years are watered down vs the sticker price. The checklists are getting longer, filled of lower-level prospects that wouldn't get many cards of them done in the past.

[RGM81]

It's always amazing to hit an /99 and congrats to you for that Ron. I think it was @Fultoncards that did the math, and of all the RC's in the product, the /99 crop represents less than 1% of all the RC's. Wild.

I share your sentiment--when they added parallels to the rookies starting in 2021-22 I was very disappointed. It's already so difficult to get a good rookie hit, and doing this just waters it down tremendously. I was in a break last year, and had the ace so I had first pick, and in the last pack we hit a Caufield Ice Premieres.....Green Parallel /799. Obviously happy to at least get a PC card, but elation turned to deflation pretty fast.

You did well on the Exquisite rookies too!

[Fultoncards]

Okay. My two cents, and I write this benignly.

I obviously understand the resentment lofted at Upper Deck for mass printing. I guess I've been in the hobby too long. I've seen so many cycles of ppl out of the hobby, whereby cards are rare. Then, those rare cards spike in value due to more disposable income at broader stock market highs. Then ppl flood into the card market, thinking there is a "get rich quick" scheme. So after the hyperinflation of card values, card companies satisfy the excess card demand by mass printing. (No different than mass printing of the money supply to dig out of recession, whereby the dollar devalues.) Then ppl leave the market, because cards have no value. The secondary market becomes a buyer's market again. Then card companies reduce printing to coincide with less demand. So card value again spikes. Ppl with FOMO get in the market late, and take a bath, complaining about box prices.

But, if you follow how products like Upper Deck Ice have evolved over time, Ice was always more of a novelty product than one with inherent "value" or average upside. So randomly, let's take 2008-09 Upper Deck Ice hobby for example. It's almost entirely base packs. In fact here, I'll put together a table of the Ice Premieres.

Rookie Card Breakdown:
- Ice Premieres Level 4 (#/1,999)
- Ice Premieres Level 3 (#/999)
- Ice Premieres Level 2 (#/499)
- Ice Premieres Level 1 (#/99)

Level	Print Run per Level	Player Names on Checklist	Total Rookie Cards	Percent of Total	Ice Premieres Per Box
L4	1,999	21	41,979	54%	2.17
L3	999	21	20,979	27%	1.08
L2	499	26	12,974	17%	0.67
L1	99	16	1,584	2%	0.08
		84	77,516	100%	4.00

So, here is what you get in a hobby box break of 2008-09 UD Ice:

• 3 autos or memorabilia
• 4 Rookie Premieres (2.17 L4, 1.08 L3, 0.67 L2, 0.08 L1)

Odds of hitting Stamkos Ice Premieres #/99 = (0.08 x 100) / 16 cards = 0.5%!

Hits:

• 0.67 Frozen Fabrics - inserted 1:30
• 0.67 Fresh Threads - inserted 1:30
• 0.91 Glacial Graphs
• 0.06 Signature Swatches
• (Auto-Patches #/10)
• (Frozen Foursomes #/5)

Does that sound like good value to you, or more value than today's product, which is a novelty product that makes a great present for a kid or teen? Those average 2008-09 Glacial Graphs and memorabilia have no secondary market value. And, if you look at my YouTube break, I only hit one relic and one glacial graph ( ). There are barely any inserts and certainly no parallels. And the base are plasticky but not actual see-through acetate cards.

I'd argue today's product is better for low-end collectors, given the variety, die-cuts, parallels, and very tactile nature. And look at the price of 2022-23 UD Ice on Dave & Adams. The price of a box is already 35% off. So the supply price will absolutely be reduced to meet the demand price, of those who are younger or have shallower pockets. Release day pricing relates to distributors, certainly in lead-in to Bedard, and group break middle men multipliers. It is just a matter of waiting for seasonal sales.

For all these reasons, I believe we need to understand broader market fundamentals, and not just vent about "watered down" products in a vacuum. I've said this before. But, to my mind we are not victims. I personally believe the blame game and drama merely serve to monetize social media channels. We do have complete control to wait for prices to drop post-release. We should appreciate that we are not always the target market for each and every product release. Do we take to social media to berate the the 95% of Netflix content where we are not the target market? To what end. No, we simply don't watch it.

By historical comparisons, Ice is no better or worse than it was for some 20 years.

I hope you get I say all this in good faith.

[ronfir]

Fultoncards,

First enjoy your videos and you certainly know your math and you are entitled to your opinion and I am entitled to mine. I have been collecting cards since 1959 starting as a nine year old so I have seen about everything this hobby has to offer.

My opinion is that 2022/23 is watered down because in the past years product you had one set of acetate rookie cards with the tiers starting around 1299 down to the 99 rookies.

This year you have the same tier of cards but you have then in brown, green, and blue. Odds are what they are, your math.

I bought enough of the product actually pull three brown rookie cards numbered to 99 They are Filip Roos, Linus Sandin, and Vladislav Kolyachonok. Check out where these three guys are playing. 99 Rookies have always been reserved for the very best of that years rookie crop and these three are far from that.

So by adding in the brown and green rookies to the blue rookie cards this year's product in my opinion it has watered down the product even if you hit one of the rare 99 rookies.

I don't have scanned of all the 99 Ice Rookies I have pulled as I traded away some of them. But I have pulled 99 rookies of Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent Hopkins, Sam Reinhart, Nolan Patrick, Connor McMichael, and then these:

Update found a scan of the Patrick:







Again, you are entitle to your opinion and your math but for my two cents UD really watered down the product by increasing the number of total rookie cards in the prodcut.

[Fultoncards]

@ronfirI appreciate your thoughtful response. My take is the demand side of cards is what has evolved the most. People now buy boxes not to set build, and often not even collect. They buy (and even watch my math-based videos!) to chase a social media endorphin rush. Distributors set box prices based on group break middle-men multipliers, and distributor thresholds so retailers will be allowed to secure Bedard year releases, next year. (Shame on distributors, for their market manipulation.)

People join those group breaks on release day, justifying the group break multipliers, as a form of gaming and gambling. Group breakers and their customers often buy spots completely divorced from mathematical odds, chasing mathematically impossible hits. And, then they drink alcohol, watching the breaks, like gamblers at the online racetrack. (Cards become a culture, and often not a family friendly one, contingent on how people engage with it.) And then they re-buy, until they get hurt. And whoever does hit the multi-case product hits promote them on social media. People have FOMO, and the cycle begins again. People do not promote their consistent gambling losses on social media. No one discloses their total yearly sunk costs, yet they still talk about card values, as if that matters if they are at a loss by definition. Everyone conveniently ignores the more important side of the ledger, and demand side irresponsibility.

My point is, people increasingly break boxes or join breaks as a form of gambling, in and of itself. They don't even hang onto the cards. They immediately post them on eBay to recoup. Cards are a self-contained online universe, divorced from the physical cards. If the hobby weren't a form of gaming as opposed to collecting, ppl would simply buy cards in a clear buyer's market on eBay with 100% certainty for far less money than all their gambling losses. Most don't, which is why eBay is a buyer's market after the pandemic hyperinflation. But that's not why they break. They break to buy an expensive lotto ticket. There is a reason sports events and sports networks are sponsored by gambling sites. People gamble and that is how sports, networks, and social media channels are monetized. Through division, conspiracy, and adrenaline. I'm not saying I agree with it. I don't like it, which is why I never mention card values on my channel. It is the wrong side of the ledger. (Historically, it was alcohol and cigarettes that monetized sports. That was just as bad.)

How does this relate to Upper Deck Ice? Ice, unlike historically, now includes high-end Exquisite product hits to justify some of the gambling. In fact, every product now has these product hits to justify the multipliers. Prices are not defined by rookie card yields. They are set based on release day breaks, and then sticker prices tank. And prices and products are structured as not to deplete, just like in the 1990s and 2000s, after card hyperinflations. What will happen is all the discontented folks will leave the card market, as cards have no inherent value when the market is saturated with people, as it means it will be saturated with cards. When people get frustrated that cards represent a loss, as they do by definition, they game elsewhere. Print runs come down. Card values go back up. And, people again arrive back in too late with FOMO, and get killed. It is the same phenomenon as people selling stocks after crashes and buying stocks at all-time highs, the diametric opposite of what should be done.

People are even cheerleading the cyclical sports card market crashes. But, crashes are actually the best time to buy, and obviously the worst to sell.

This is why I impress on people that wealth is earned via our life's work. We invest in equities and real estate, not UD Ice or UD The Cup penny stocks. Cards are a hobby purchased from our entertainment budget. It should not matter what is in boxes, if we buy during seasonal sales once the market corrects prices. Box breaks are events to enjoy, like attending a hockey game. We do not control the dismal odds and terrible value proposition. We simply enjoy the cards, regardless of cyclical people and card saturation.

[ronfir]

Fultoncards, the former owner of one of the local stores used to say busting wax was like cardboard crack!

Also, I have never been involved with any breakers, don’t roll that way but I know a lot of people do that. Just not something I want to do.

I am a set builder at heart and a collector first and foremost


Thanks

[Fultoncards]

Fultoncards, the former owner of one of the local stores used to say busting wax was like cardboard crack!

Also, I have never been involved with any breakers, don’t roll that way but I know a lot of people do that. Just not something I want to do.

I am a set builder at heart and a collector first and foremost


Thanks

I hear you brother. I'm obviously fond of the set building approach, as I am a set builder myself (e.g. my sets include historical Parkhurst, OPC, Topps, BAP and BTP autos, Champ's autos, TCJ, President's Choice Canadiens, etc.). In fact, I posted a series of videos on some of the earlier sets. But, economic forces and how private corporations behave are fairly consistent over time. Social media monetization and mass legalized gambling are the new drivers. And the affects on society, including on our politics and how we communicate, are what worry me the most. As a rule, in the free market west, people blame and undermine governance and government just as much as they do private companies. At some point, people themselves need to look in the mirror. We can't pretend we are victims. As humans, by definition, we have brains and agency.

I appreciate the conversation. And, I accept most views differ than mine, as we all have different angles and perspectives.

[RGM81]

Great discussion in here, gents. I want to pick up on something @Fultoncards said, which really resonated with me.

People now buy boxes not to set build, and often not even collect. They buy (and even watch my math-based videos!) to chase a social media endorphin rush.

The most-often asked question I see these days (not here, but the elsewheres of hobby life) is: "Should I get this card graded?" Doesn't matter what it is; 5th year low #'d McDavid insert, hot rookie card, it runs the full gamut. During the pandemic we saw hedge funds getting into investing in the absolute highest-of-high-end cards. Not a lot of hockey, of course, but some. Cards like a PSA 10 Gretzky RC. But mostly basketball stuff. Jordans & Kobes. Logomans with bounties on them. Drake getting involved. You'd have these monoliths getting involved and buying up these pristine, true investment pieces. And of course that triggered a wave of new aspiring "investors" who dumped truckloads of money on Zion Williamson Prizm RC's, drove Alex Ovechkin values absolutely through the roof, and have helped bring us to where we are today.