ARTICLE: Mike's guide to the WPB theory. Pick better boxes and packs!

[soxfan445]

ARTICLE: Mike's guide to the WPB theory. Pick up better packs and boxes!

by Mike Wittman (soxfan445)

NOTE TO MODS/ADVISORS: Please leave this in the General Forum for two days so Mike can get comments, then I will move it to the article forum. Rima

Hello everyone, and welcome back to another Mike's guide to!
It must have been a good 4 months since I've written an article, and I have some free time today so I'd figured I'd write one today on a tactic that I have been developing for some time when it comes to picking boxes.

Let's begin.

Buying boxes and packs is an interesting thing. Obviously, other sources, like eBay, are more reliable and cheaper when it comes to buying singles that you need. In some cases, you can get the entire contents of a box for more than half below cost.

But boxes are still purchased, packs are still purchased, and no matter how many times you get nothing, you continue, because next time could be the time. The box breaks by some of our members help too, seeing someone get something nice after buying a cheap pack definitely makes you think that you could be the next one. When you are buying packs and boxes, there is one important thing to remember. Every good card, on ebay or wherever, has to have come from a pack somewhere. Packs are the way that cards are introduced to the secondary market, like us and eBay, and it is important to fully understand how to maximize your chances of getting your money's worth from packs.

I have a couple of tips for buying individual packs first, and then I'll get into the WPB theory and how it applies to boxes.

I employ a theory called selective pack buying when I buy packs and boxes.

The ultimate most important thing to remember when you are buying packs is KNOW YOUR ODDS. Whenever I walk into a card store, I ALWAYS have one of the following:
1. A mental list of the hit ratios of the packs in the store.
2. A written list of the hit ratios of all of the packs released in the last year.

Now what is a hit ratio, you ask. A hit ratio is the most important concept in selective pack buying. A hit ratio simply is the rate that hits (GU and autos) are seeded in the packs. For example, a hit ratio of 1:6 means that on average, one hit will be inserted every six packs. In general, a product with more hit ratios is a better value.

I have looked at my list long enough that is almost memorized, but if you haven't memorized such a list yet, I will provide mine at the end of this article. Feel free to use it, distribute it, print it out and take it to the store with you. It will definitely help.

Another important thing to look for is the amount of packs left in a box. In general, companies do not insert hits in the last pack(s) of a box. If you buy a product with 3 packs left in a box, your odds are much less than they are if you buy a product with 24 packs in a box with the same odds. Buying the last pack is almost guaranteed to decrease your chances.

One more thing to remember is Know your product. Know things about how many other inserts are inserted in a box. For example, I know that 2005 Donruss has an insert or short print in every pack. I would buy this product over something such as 05 Upper Deck that does not promise that. Knowing your product will also help.

Packs are usually relatively cheap. However, when it comes to buying boxes, all of these steps will become even more important because you are dealing with a lot more money.
Over a little while, I have come up with a interesting method of selecting boxes.

I call it the WPB theory.

WPB stands for Worst Possible Box. The main gist of the theory is to buy boxes in which the worst possible pulls are the best. What does that mean? Here's what you do to determine a box's WPB quotient.
1. Get a magazine such as Beckett Plus that lists all of the inserts in a certain product. This can also be done on Beckett.com by typing the name of the set into the set search in the price guide section.
2. Look only at the sets that are GUs or autos.
3. Determine how many GUs/autos are inserted in each box. You can get this information from charmcitycards.com
4. Using the number of GUs/autos inserted, choose the combination of GUs and autos that add up to the LEAST possible book value, without using duplicates.
5. Divide this total book value by the price of the box.
So let's say that Product X guarantees 2 GUs or autos per box.
I look on beckett, and see that there are $8 GUs possible. I multiply that by two (because there are two hits per box) to get $16. I then divide that by the cost of the box, $32, to get a WPB quotient of .5. This is an average box.
Always make sure that you follow the conditions set by the box. For example, if it says "one auto and one GU per box", calculate the WPB using the least expensive GU and the least expensive auto.
A quotient of .5 is rather average.
.75 is a rather good box
Quotients of 1 or higher signify very good buys. More than 1.25 is a must buy.

There are other factors that you can use when buying a box, but if you have no idea of what to get, or if you are stuck between two boxes, the WPB quotient is a very good indicator of the better deal.

Why do this, you ask. Here are my reasons behind the WPB theory.
1. You are looking at the worst possible situation. It is much easier to get a very bad box than to get a very good box. For that reason, you are analyzing the easiest thing that can happen.
2. You will almost NEVER get the worst possible box. For that reason, the WPB quotient will almost always be lower than the total BV of the cards in the box. This is why it is important to jump on a box with a WPB of 1 or higher, because you are very likely to beat the odds and get a total BV that is much higher than the price of the box.
3. It makes you feel like you got a good box even if you don't get the best possible items, because you are still beating the WPB.

I have found that the WPB is a very good indicator of the bargain value of a box, and I use it in almost all of my purchases. Please try it and let me know your results, I am interested to see how this is used in other places.

Happy busting, and good luck in your buying.
Regards!
Mike

Now as promised, here is my hit ratio list, updated to today.
Data from charmcitycards.com

2004 Bowman: 1 in 12
2004 Bowman Jumbo: 1 in 3
2004 Bowman First Edition: N/A
2004 Bowman Heritage: 1 in 8
2004 Bowman Chrome: 1 in 9
2004 Bowman Sterling: 3 in 1
2004 Donruss: 1 in 24
2004 Donruss Classics: 1 in 9 (one per mini-box)
2004 Diamond Kings: 1 in 6
2004 Donruss Elite: 1 in 6.33
2004 Donruss Elite Extra: 1 in 4
2004 Donruss Leather and Lumber: 1 in 6
2004 Donruss Studio: 1 in 8
2004 Donruss Team Heroes: 1 in 24
2004 Donruss Throwback Threads: 1 in 8
2004 Donruss Timeless Treasures: 1 in 1
2004 Donruss Timelines: 1 in 1
2004 Donruss World Series: 1 in 5
2004 Fleer Authentix: 1 in 8
2004 Fleer Classic Clippings: 1 in 9
2004 Fleer Flair: 4 in 1
2004 Fleer E-X: 2 in 1
2004 Fleer Genuine: 1 in 6
2004 Fleer Greats of the Game: 1 in 5
2004 Fleer Hot Prospects: 1 in 5 to 1 in 2
2004 Fleer America's National Pastime: 1 in 3.33
2004 Fleer Patchworks: 1 in 6
2004 Fleer Inscribed: 1 in 4
2004 Fleer Platinum: 1 in 11
2004 Fleer Showcase: 1 in 8
2004 Fleer Sweet Sigs: 1 in 4-6
2004 Fleer Tradition: 1 in 18
2004 Fleer Ultra; 1 in 12
2004 Fleer Ultra Update: 1 in 6
2004 Leaf: 1 in 12
2004 Leaf Certified Materials: 1 in 2.5
2004 Leaf Certified Cuts: 1 in 2.5
2004 Playoff Absolute: 1 in 1
2004 Playoff Honors: 1 in 6
2004 Playoff Prestige: 1 in 12
2004 Playoff Prime Cuts: 1 in 1
2004 Skybox Autographics: 1 in 1
2004 Skybox Limited Edition: 1 in 6
2004 Topps (1 and 2): No guarantee
2004 Topps Jumbo (1 and 2): No guarantee
2004 Topps All-Time Fan Favorites: 1 in 8
2004 Topps Bazooka: 1 in 8
2004 Topps Chrome 1 and 2: 1 in 20 (not counting refractors or box toppers)
2004 Topps Clubhouse collection: 2 in 1
2004 Topps Cracker Jack: 1 in 12
2004 Topps Finest: 1 in 3.6 (1-2 in 1 mini box)
2004 Topps Heritage: no guarantee
2004 Topps Opening day: N/A
2004 Topps Originals Signature: 1 in 1
2004 Topps Pristine: 1 in 1
2004 Topps Shoebox: No guarantee
2004 Topps Total: no guarantee
2004 Topps T & R: 1 in 24
2004 UD 1 and 2: 1 in 12
2004 UD All Star Lineup: 1 in 24
2004 UD Etchings: 1 in 2 or less (many people reported getting 7 hits per box)
2004 UD First Pitch: N/A
2004 UD Legends: 1 in 8
2004 UD Play Ball: 1 in 8
2004 UD Pro Sigs: 1 in 24
2004 UD Reflections: 1 in 1.6
2004 UD R-Class: 1 in 12
2004 UD SP Authentic: 1 in 12
2004 UD Sp Auth. Cuts: 1 in 4 (autos 1 in 4 boxes, cut autos 1 per case, 1/1s 1:96)
2004 UD Game used patch edition: 1 in 1
2004 UD SP Prospects: 1 in 5
2004 UD SPx: 1 in 4.5
2004 UD Sweet Spot: 1 in 4
2004 UD Sweet Spot Classics: 1 in 12
2004 UD Vintage: 1 in 24
2005 Donruss: 1 in 12-24
2005 Fleer GOTG Cut Sig. Ed.: 1 in 5
2005 Fleer Ultra: 1 in 12
2005 Upper Deck: 1 in 12

ARTICLE (C) 2005 Mike D. Wittman All Rights Reserved. Please ask for permission before duplicating (you will probably get it)

[fjniskey]

Good Article. Thanks for the info.

[ChiefsFan88]

That is a very interesting article. I like the WPB theory. I might use that. thanks


Blake

[connor5]

Another great Article Mike I think I might try the WPB theory next week. I've trying to decided which 2005 Hobby box I should buy. thanks again

-Brad O'Connor

[tutall]

great article but your theory does not take into effect the inserts that many companies release that are worth just as much if not more than the GU. it is an awesome way to figure it out if you are only buying the box trying to pull a GU or AUTO but some boxes, such as the showcase i bought a few days ago... have 1 GU or AUTO but i pulled 2 legacy collections bv 40 and 30..... those would not be taken into account with this theory but again.. if all you want in GU and AUTOS... i assume it would work

[LakersMC]

A very nice article, Mike. I like this article better than most of the articles I read in Beckett or Tuff Stuff. I like learning new stuff, like WPB. Very interesting.

The one thing I don't agree with in the article is the last pack theory. I don't think it matters because the packs on the bottom usually did not start at the bottom (due to pack picking or dealers "shuffling" the packs). So I think your chances of pulling hits in the last packs are the same as starting from a new box. Just my 2c.

Hey, but I love the article. I'm gonna read some more of your other ones now.

ARTICLE: Mike's guide to the WPB theory. Pick up better packs and boxes!

Another important thing to look for is the amount of packs left in a box. In general, companies do not insert hits in the last pack(s) of a box. If you buy a product with 3 packs left in a box, your odds are much less than they are if you buy a product with 24 packs in a box with the same odds. Buying the last pack is almost guaranteed to decrease your chances.

ARTICLE (C) 2005 Mike D. Wittman All Rights Reserved. Please ask for permission before duplicating (you will probably get it)

[soxfan445]

Yea, that's true, I guess.

Thanks for the comments!
Regards,
Mike

[TurdFerguson]

Great job Mike, you've done it again !