What determines the value of cards?

[trevo878]

Hey everyone,

I've been out of the hobby for a while but recently got back into it. I decided to go on ebay the other day and browse some cards and the prices of some cards really surprised me. For instance, when I left the hobby, Crosby RC's were selling for just slighlty more than Ovechkin RC's. However, when i was looking on ebay, Crosby young guns were selling from $200-$225 while Ovechkin young guns were selling for only $55-$75.

Also, Stamkos yg's were selling for the same price as Hall yg's. Is this because Hall is in a hockey markey city or is it simply hype and the prices of his cards will drop in relation to the price of stamkos cards?

I guess what I'm thinking is the nationality and city which a player plays in are the two greatest factors in determining the value of a card? This would explain why Crosby>Ovechkin and Stamkos is pretty much the same as Hall.

Any feedback/comments would be awesome!

[braden]

I guess what I'm thinking is the nationality and city which a player plays in are the two greatest factors in determining the value of a card?

All you have to do is look at what people are paying (or overpaying really) for Subban cards. You'd think the guy scored 80 goals last year the way his stuff sells.

[trevo878]

All you have to do is look at what people are paying (or overpaying really) for Subban cards. You'd think the guy scored 80 goals last year the way his stuff sells.

I looked into that too. Some of his stuff is selling for 5 times the value of Doguhty's. Pretty ridiculous lol

[30ranfordfan]

IMO - There is one great factor: Popularity.

Crosby and Ovechkin are a great example. The argument is pretty easy to make that Sid is the better player (when healthy) but he's not 4x better.

These prices are driven by demand, and there is just much more demand for a Canadian Superstar than there is a Russian one.

Stamkos vs Hall is another interesting one. If you follow prices of cards for a couple of years, you'll find that most first year players see their prices plumet as time goes on. Demand for those cards goes down. Hall will (likely) see his prices drop this season, as guys like Nugent-Hopkins & Cody Hodgson become the hot rookies. Set collectors will be through with the 10-11 stuff, and onto the 11-12.

Even common Young Guns. When they first hit the market - roughly 80 of the 100 in the set can be had for $5 or less. Those same 80 will be in the dollar bin, in a couple of years.

For the bigger stars (at least in theory) it depends how they do. Stamkos' cards really bottomed out a couple of years ago (much like Tavares' have now) but then shot back up when he became a true Super Star.

Hope that helps, at least a bit.

[RGM81]

Simply put, the market determines the value of a card.

You mentioned Sid & Ovy - I don't think it's even a debate anymore as to which one is the better player. Prior to his injury Sid was simply playing a different game than anybody else, just on a plane all his own. Toss in a Cup, the Olympics, etc., and that explains the wide gap between him and Ovy.

The player's home market ABSOLUTELY determines the value of a card. You think PK Subban would be off-the-charts if he were a Florida Panther and not a Montreal Canadien? Not a chance. Any Canadiens player gets a bit of a bump just by virtue of the jersey he wears, but if he's something special then look out because the die-hards will get insane collections going, and for many of them money is no object.

So there's a lot of factors but in the end it's simple supply and demand. There's a high demand for the game's elite players, so to keep values high the card companies have to short-print the premium cards. Crosby is SP'd in almost every product where he has an autograph, to a far greater extent than Ovechkin or Stamkos. So even though there's about 400 different Sid autos out there they're still worth a couple hundred bucks because there's limited copies of each one.

[Habitforming]

All you have to do is look at what people are paying (or overpaying really) for Subban cards. You'd think the guy scored 80 goals last year the way his stuff sells.

He was one goal away from a 40 year old record though....

Doughty has been overrated as well. Take a look at his current contract negotiations, 21-22 years old and asking for Lidstrom money long term??

[ReimerFan]

Location / Supply / Demand - Imagine if Crosby played for the Leafs (I do sometimes) how much his card would be worth then!

[Habitforming]

Location / Supply / Demand - Imagine if Crosby played for the Leafs (I do sometimes) how much his card would be worth then!

For sure.... just look what they did with a 3rd tier backup like Reimer!!

I kid, I kid.

[trevo878]

So nationaly, location, popularity, and supply are the four key factors then.

Also, I like the point brought up about the "first year hype". I agree that the value of Hall cards will drop while people pay premiums for Nugent-Hopkins and Landeskog cards.

All great feedback. Thanks guys!

[braden]

I would say location plays a big part for sure. Pretty much any star from the Original 6 sells well. Obviously Montreal and Toronto are highest. Nationality is perhaps the biggest reason of all. Stamkos is in Tampa of all places but his stuff sells really high.

I always use Ryan Miller as an example. The guy was money in 2010 (think Olympics) but he's American. I still think if he played in Toronto or Montreal his stuff would be through the roof but if he was born in Canada it would be higher yet.

I think US players are getting more attention collector-wise because there are some very good ones in the league now. Kane, Miller, Bobby Ryan, JVR (he was awesome in the Playoffs), and a very underrated David Backes.

Russian guys (deserved or not) are perceived to be lazy, indifferent, and after the money. Some are but think of Ovi and Datsyuk. Some will disagree but I think Datsyuk has more pure skill than anyone in the league and it's not even close. Nobody handles the puck in traffic like he does and his defensive play is outstanding. But....he's Russian.