I've seen a number of discussions lately about the best way to predict future goaltender performance. The analytical community showed long ago that because a goalie doesn't see very many PK shots per year, simple luck doesn't come anywhere near balancing out and a goalie's PK Sv% bounces around almost completely randomly from year to year.

From that, it was natural to infer that the penalty kill just adds noise to our measurement of goalies and that we should focus on even strength save percentage (ES Sv%) instead of total save percentage. This would also presumably remove any unfair advantage a goalie gets in total save percentage by playing for a team that doesn't take many penalties


http://www.broadstreethockey.com/201...-even-strength