Case Break - break even?

[xposipx]

A lot of people pre-order cases of new product and put them on ebay immediately and presumably keep some PC as well. Who has done this before? Have you kept track of how often you lose money/break even/make money? I am interested in trying this out, but am also very wary about it. I almost pulled the trigger on the 2012 UFC Finest, but decided not to. If anyone has any advice or statistics from their experiences I would love to hear your input. Thanks!

[Frantiic]

It's very hard to say if you ever break even on cases etc. Some cases are loaded with high selling cards, and some or not. hit or miss .

I collect alot of basketball and by buying alot of panini since UD and topps dont have a nba license, its very hard to break even. lot of boxes cost more to buy than what the cards inside of it is worth.. if you pull a Kobe or a durant you might get your money back for buying a box. but even if you hit one, its not certain you will get your money back .. im sure it's different in UFC, Hockey etc.

[MattDMC]

Done it multiple times usually 70% of the time you lose money 30% of the time you break even or make money. Thats my experiences anyway.

If you don't get a loaded case with the big name rookie as a case hit you're pretty much doomed, most of the time your case hit is going to be a no name rookie and you're pretty much screwed unless you can hit a SP or HOF auto.

Unless you have a decent amount of disposable income I wouldn't try it.

[xposipx]

Thanks for the input! any more?

It just seems like if you get certain cards on ebay first they will sell for at least double the value it's worth later in the week.

[htram9]

Thanks for the input! any more?

It just seems like if you get certain cards on ebay first they will sell for at least double the value it's worth later in the week.

This is true. I pulled a 2011 SP Authentic Football FW Auto /35 of some random guy. Got $50 for it (it was the first). It sells for $5. Not sure why people pay so much for the first. There are some products which is a VERY good sell almost always. But being one of the first, and listing EVERYTHING helps a lot. If you plan to break 2010 Topps baseball for example, you won't do well without a big hit. The first day it came out? You would of done well. There are people who make 50% more then the case price by selling very fast, and breaking a lot. Try it out with a new case, and start keeping stats. If you can afford it, you won't lose much.

[xposipx]

This is true. I pulled a 2011 SP Authentic Football FW Auto /35 of some random guy. Got $50 for it (it was the first). It sells for $5. Not sure why people pay so much for the first. There are some products which is a VERY good sell almost always. But being one of the first, and listing EVERYTHING helps a lot. If you plan to break 2010 Topps baseball for example, you won't do well without a big hit. The first day it came out? You would of done well. There are people who make 50% more then the case price by selling very fast, and breaking a lot. Try it out with a new case, and start keeping stats. If you can afford it, you won't lose much.

Pretty much what I was thinking. I would try it with a more inexpensive case before trying one that sells for $1,000+. I would also avoid cases that only have 3 boxes. Thanks!

Really, opening all of the product would be really fun too and "losing 100-200" wouldn't hurt at all if it were fun breaking the stuff.

[htram9]

Pretty much what I was thinking. I would try it with a more inexpensive case before trying one that sells for $1,000+. I would also avoid cases that only have 3 boxes. Thanks!

Really, opening all of the product would be really fun too and "losing 100-200" wouldn't hurt at all if it were fun breaking the stuff.

Exactly on the fun part. 50% of it for me is fun so I can lose 50% and be happy haha. Honestly, low-end stuff seems easier because the money ISN'T in the actual hits. Work is more, but more money. At least from experience. Look at 2012 Topps Chrome football. You may not hit a big name auto. But you get a auto /25 and it is good. Then all the rookies, refractor's, etc. Again, selling when it is hot is the best way to go. With a bigger product, for example 2011-2012 SP Authentic hockey. Even the best auto RC barely sells for the box price. You NEED a big triple auto, amazing patch auto, or a few of the big rookie autos just to break even. Better products need that big hit to help.

[xposipx]

Thanks for the input htram!

I was looking at 2012 Finest Football at $750/8 boxes because of the Rcs, refractors, etc.

[htram9]

Thanks for the input htram!

I was looking at 2012 Finest Football at $750/8 boxes because of the Rcs, refractors, etc.

That isn't bad at all. I assume 2 hits per master box again? Sometimes 3? The common rookies sell well at release. You get about 5 or 6 numbered refractors per master box. $750 isn't bad at all. A good mix of lower stuff to add to the sale total, and chances at huge stuff.

People always claim that boxes yield 20% return.. etc. They never look at the little stuff. Sure, if I bust a box of 2011 Finest and I get Delone and Powell'd, it isn't good. Many will say worse box ever! But wait? Is that a Cam refractor /399? Seems so harmless, it is a $35 card! Add up all the other common stuff and all of a sudden you got half your money back on a worse box ever. Sure, some boxes are horrible, but I always notice this, on a 12 box case 3-4 will make money, 3-4 will lose money, 3-4 will be toss ups (real bad or real good). If you bust Finest right away. You'll get back $600 without trying if you use eBay. Best of luck!