The real poll numbers

[pghin08]

If they didn't matter, they wouldn't exist.

Really? Polls matter? Because in another thread, you said this:

You will see lots of these polls going both ways over the next three months. I wouldn't put much stock in any of them.

Why wouldn't you put much stock in them if they are important?

[mrveggieman]

No, I'm telling you that if polls didn't matter, the campaigns wouldn't commission them.

Several years ago I used to work for firms doing political polling. The polls are always paid for by supporters of a particular party and are used as a marketing tool. For example one of the questions that was asked went something to the effect of do you believe in a womans right to chose an abortion free of gov't interference? It was pretty much a pro abortion tool to get people on the fence about abortion to become pro abortion. In marketing/political research it is real easy to skew the numbers to show whatever you want. Those polls are simply a marketing/pr stunt and like wikabee said the only poll that matters will be the one in november.

[AUTaxMan]

Really? Polls matter? Because in another thread, you said this:



Why wouldn't you put much stock in them if they are important?

Different polls. The polls in the news are not reliable. The internal polls are what matter.

[AUTaxMan]

Several years ago I used to work for firms doing political polling. The polls are always paid for by supporters of a particular party and are used as a marketing tool. For example one of the questions that was asked went something to the effect of do you believe in a womans right to chose an abortion free of gov't interference? It was pretty much a pro abortion tool to get people on the fence about abortion to become pro abortion. In marketing/political research it is real easy to skew the numbers to show whatever you want. Those pools are simply a marketing/pr stunt and like wikabee said the only poll that matters will be the one in november.

Different type of poll. The campaigns do conduct polls for internal use that actually attempt to predict how people are going to vote instead of using them for campaign publicity.

[pghin08]

Different polls. The polls in the news are not reliable. The internal polls are what matter.

I agree. The polls in the news are not reliable. But neither are the ones that Dick Morris claims are "real", but he can't name the source. I usually don't trust people who've been disgraced out of politics to adequately analyze them.

[AUTaxMan]

I agree. The polls in the news are not reliable. But neither are the ones that Dick Morris claims are "real", but he can't name the source. I usually don't trust people who've been disgraced out of politics to adequately analyze them.

Morris is a pretty smarmy guy, but I think he's on top of this one. He knows what he's talking about.

[pghin08]

Morris is a pretty smarmy guy, but I think he's on top of this one. He knows what he's talking about.

Really? You won't trust Pew or Rasmussen, but you'll trust the guy who said it would be Condi against Hillary in '08 and the guy who let a prostitute listen in on his calls to Bill Clinton?

Look, I have no idea who's going to win, and what polls will end up being right, if any. Nor do I care, I think polls are more for the fun of guessing and following than anything else. But what you're showing me right now is that you're no different than the legions of people out there who will believe whatever data they can find in order to validate their previously held notions, no matter the source or legitimacy. The fact is you're willing to invest in what a guy is saying without checking his validity or sources. Invest wisely, my friend.

[Wickabee]

Different polls. The polls in the news are not reliable. The internal polls are what matter.

I'm sure you meant "polls that favor Obama are not reliable".

Or is that just a coincidence.

[AUTaxMan]

I'm sure you meant "polls that favor Obama are not reliable".

Or is that just a coincidence.

No.

[Wickabee]

I'd ask no to which part, but I'm pretty certain you meant no it's not just because this one favours Romney and the other favoured Obama, so I'll just reply with a "if you say so, I guess I have to believe you..."