The Hurricane Sandy-related lull in tracking polls gives us a good opportunity to look at one of the more interesting aspects of polling to develop this month: the divergence between national and state polls. Put simply, the national surveys point to a Romney win, while the state polls collectively point to an Obama win. Both can’t be correct. The RCP Average currently has Mitt Romney up by 0.8 points nationally. He has held this lead fairly consistently ever since the first presidential debate. Given what we know about how individual states typically lean with respect to the...

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