Rookie cards and speculating with them

[GrinningBuddha]

Two different questions for the experts here:

1) If I'm looking to collect a genuine rookie card of a player, is the Series 1/Series 2 Young Gun the most widely accepted version? I've been told the base Young Gun is preferable to the canvas version, as the canvas cards aren't considered true rookie cards, do you agree?

2) When does the typical rookie card peak in value? Is it right after release, after the player has their first breakout season, or some other time? As an example, let's take Steven Stamkos. At what point was his Young Guns rookie card worth the most on the secondary market? Or will it be peak at some point down the road?

Thanks for your input.

[87sluggo]

1) Your basic YG is the most popular RC out there, it's pretty much universally accessible. After that comes the SP Authentic Future Watch-es.
Canvas YG versions have only been released in the last two years, they're not "true" rookie cards, but sometimes they carry a premium price, if they're RNH or short-printed etc................


2) If I had the answer to that, I'd quit my job and buy boxes of hockey cards for a living hahahaaaaa. Stamkos has probably dropped in price a little compared to when his card was released but it still commands very decent money. Tavares is holding steady. Guys like RNH & Hall & Eberle fluctuate with their performance on the ice. Look at Torey Krug.........who'da thnunk that?????

[30ranfordfan]

Couple of answers.....


1. I would say that the 'Young Gun' is the most accepted (preferred?) RC, but I would call it a pretty good standard, as that set (UD Series 1 / 2) has the longest running history of any set currently on the market. Rookie Cards from 'The Cup' are easily the most desirable to own. Of course though, they command more money.

On the question of Canvas vs Regular though, you're correct. Nobody considers the Canvas to be a "Rookie Card". It's a parallel of a rookie card. That being said, doesn't mean that the Canvas cards arn't more valuable (they are) becuase they're much more limited.


2. The easy answer: There is no set time.

Most cards now-a-days, they do peak @ the time of the release. Think about it like this.....

Yakupov first Rookie Cards will hit shelves in late summer. When they do, there will only be 1 or 2 of them on the market. As the season goes on, he's going to have 20+ Rookie Cards. Many collectors may want multiple types, many will simply settel for a favorite set, but as the season goes on.... supply will increase, but demand isn't going to go up all that much. Not unless he explodes for a really big second year.

The other thing that the first few weeks / months have going for them: Set collectors. A set like SP Authentic.... the Rookie Cards are limited, but not all that limited. 999 copies. That's quite a few, by today's standards. Except.... they're common enough for people to be able to build the set, while being limited enough for them to be considered (at least) a little bit rare.

If 250 people try and put together a complete set of SP Authentic, that leaves 749 for the rest of us. For common players that's probably plently, but for top picks.... there are going to be player collectors, rookie collectors, team collectors, "good card" collectors, and speculators all snapping these up. It does mean the supply can (and will) dry up in a few months.

This may seem like a few months later is the time to sell (supply has dried up, at least somewhat) but not necessarily true. If the set collectors all have the card, they won't be around to bid up your auction. Same with a lot of the other people who want it. They've already got their copy. Supply has gone down, but Demand has too.

You also get guys like Jonathan Quick. He was a no-name in his rookie year, and only made his way into three sets. Most of these cards were afterthoughts. Could be had for a couple of bucks (and only that much, becuase they were serial numbered RCs). When the Kings went on their run last year..... cards that used to sell for $5 were selling for $120.


So, what's the answer? Really, I don't know. It's very hard to say for sure.


For 13-14 Rookie cards, if you're looking to sell within a calandar year of when you pulled them... most of the time, best bet is to move them in the days after the release of the product. If you sit on them for 5 years and hope that they'll go up in value, that probably only happens if the player suddenly moves into being considered a true superstar (and not just a 'superstar rookie) OR they have some crazy good run in the playoffs (see Krug, Torrie).


In all honesty, if you're looking to buy rookie cards up now, and make money off them later.... its not that it can't be done, but it's hard. You're MUCH better off putting your money elsewhere.

[CoolHandLuke]

Price always resume to demand and availability. What will influence demand, first how the player was pre NHL rating and daft position. Then performance will affect value. But also the team they play for. So if a player is drafted by a team that has more collectors then demand will be higher and so will be the price tag. Also when a player is traded, this can affect value. Take Halak that become really popular while player for Montreal and then when traded to St-Louis, the value and demand went down.

So while it's easy enough to predict the player that will be the top rookie of a crop, it's hard to predict how they will do in time as performance start bringing stats, trade or time before they actually start playing in the NHL are all factor. In other word they are gamble as we can't predict things for sure.