13-14 Artifacts Top 12 Rookies Autos

[rydlar99]

Hey all,

Just figured I'd ask people here to check my math. I just pulled a Nail Yakupov Top 12 Rookies Auto (redemption) from one of my cases of 13-14 Artifacts... as far as I can tell, these Top 12s are 1:1000 packs, or 1:100 boxes. Now follow my math here, and let me know if I'm off:

Hobby Boxes yield roughly 1 Team Canada card /999 per box. There are 25 different players. So, I'm going to assume 25,000 boxes.

At 1:100 boxes, we'd be looking at there being 250 of these Top 12 Rookie Autos across the whole 12 players, correct? So roughly 20 cards of each with, I assume, some of the players SP'd? Just trying to figure out what I've got on my hands here. Tops 20 copies for Nail, probably less?

Darryl

PS. Not asking for resale, this is a PC item.

[Gallinator]

Using the numbers given for Auto RC Redemptions:

24 cards /99 = 2376 cards
2376 found 1:160 = 380160 packs or 38016 hobby boxes

Checking against Rookie Redemptions (which I believe are assumed to be /999)

42 cards /999 = 41958 cards
41958 found 1:10 = 419580 packs, but these are also found 1:96 blaster packs, so I am OK with the 38000 number for hobby boxes.

That would yield (38000/100) = 380 total Top 12 Rookie Autos, so roughly 31 per player if evenly distributed.

Great pull any way you look at it!

[30ranfordfan]

Very, Very SP'd. Heard they were falling less than 1-per-case..... so your numbers sound like they might be right.

[rydlar99]

I think it works out to 1:6.5 cases, just trying to figure out the print run. Thanks Gallinator - that makes some more sense. So high end 31 for the Yakupov, but I figure there's probably SPs in the set itself - hoping Yak is one. :)

[Gallinator]

I think it works out to 1:6.5 cases, just trying to figure out the print run. Thanks Gallinator - that makes some more sense. So high end 31 for the Yakupov, but I figure there's probably SPs in the set itself - hoping Yak is one. :)

Well, the high end will be higher if not evenly distributed - 31 would be the average. Range could be anything up to 369, but for sake of speculation, let's say UD wanted to SP the top three - Yak, Galchenyuk and Huberdeau - and made 15 of each of those. 15*3 = 45. 45 from 380 leaves 335 across the 9 remaining players, or roughly 37 each. If for some reason UD decided to DP the top three to meet demand or something, it could be something like: 50 each of the top three, 50*3 = 150 leaving 230 for the other 9, or roughly 26 each. Really no way of knowing precisely unless UD makes a statement on it.

[Gallinator]

So, I've seen a Top 12 in each of the five cases I've watched so far...either they are stacking the early cases or the hit ratio info is incorrect or I just happened to hit a 6^5 (1:7776) viewing chance!

[rydlar99]

LOL That would seem to be a bit odd... I busted 2 cases, only 1 in them. I have 2 more cases coming tomorrow. Will let you know.

[30ranfordfan]

Just to add to the conversation....

I was in a group break on CnC, and did see about 4 1/2 cases get busted. When I was watching, there was only one of them (I think a Dougie Hamilton) pulled.