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10-24-2013, 08:41 PM #1
Brilliance UD The Cup Odds
Can someone estimate the number of cards, even though not numbered based on information ?
From what I can figure approx. 22,410 packs ... ( 249 base cards x 90 different )
Brilliance Autographs
Featuring 30 cards
Overall Odds - 1:5 packs
Individual Odds - Group A 1:19 packs, Group B 1:14 packs, Group C 1:10 packs
Other info, 13 players as - A's, 9 players - B's, and 8 players - C's
But I get confused as to the math of how many of each card out there. My first attempt I was getting 18 of each player - A's , 35 of each player - B's , and 56 of each player C's , won't explain how I came to those numbers as I don't want to throw off the next persons guess. (and I do realize some C's may be more common then other C's, as it isn't an exact science).
Anyone else ? approx. production numbers ?Last edited by DeanCrandall; 10-24-2013 at 08:46 PM. Reason: math
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10-24-2013, 09:14 PM #2
The problem with any number that anyone comes up with is the assumption that all players within a specific group are created equal which is not the case with any product since they went to this misleading SP info. Parkhurst Champs was an excellent example of this as there are many cards seriously short printed within groups which appear not to be that tough.
Darren
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10-24-2013, 10:16 PM #3
From what I've read there are actually 2 base cards per tin of the Cup so I'd cut your pack number in half - also there are 27 Ultimate cards each x/399, and with one Ultimate pack per Cup tin and one Ultimate base card per pack, that also works out to around 11,000 packs.
By my math... I would take num packs / (num players in group * odds per group), or roughly...
Group A = 11,000 / (13*19) = 45
Group B = 11,000 / (9*14) = 87
Group C = 11,000 / (8*10) = 137
Of course that would just be averages, no idea how short-printed some players may be.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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10-25-2013, 09:28 AM #4
All I know is that across 2 cases, I pulled 6 of them, including a couple Group As like Lindros.
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10-25-2013, 10:17 AM #5
Yes looking at Sedins numbers seems to make more sense. From all the cases I have watched the Brilliance hits seem to be just a bit more frequent then Enshrined which is 36 players with 50 copies each, which is more indicative of Sedins numbers vs my original thoughts. Was just looking for price ranges longer term since initial selling prices seem to be all over the map. Some of the A's over $100, with Gretzkys coming close to $500, little high with so many copies expected.
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10-28-2013, 02:51 AM #6
For what it's worth..........Trevor Linden (Group B) - $82 today........ugh
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10-28-2013, 08:07 AM #7
And now I just had a case with 0 Brilliance in it. Go figure!
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10-28-2013, 02:33 PM #8
I am more surprised by a Sundin for $143, three Ovechkins over $100, and a Roy redemption that has three sales .. $51, the next one $77, the last one $113, I don't think buyers can make up their minds either.
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11-01-2013, 12:29 PM #9
I was trying to figure out myself how much I should be max. bidding for the Fleury one. I guess there are fellow bidders like me that aren't sure how much to bid based on the unknown print run.
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11-01-2013, 02:51 PM #10
I have bought 5 cards now, bought my Theo Fleury one for $38 which is probably the one I overpaid on out of the 5. Not sure if you meant Theo or MA. Thinking you should be able to get a T.Fleury for around $25 and M.A.Fleury for $20 if patient. Paid $50 for Hull, $18 for Kreider, $17 for Skinner, and $49 for Sakic. Have three of them in hand and they look better in hand then in photos. Nice cards.
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