Less Equals More? Imagining a 7-Release UD Product Line

[Fred Bear]

Not to throw too much realism into the conversation, but I wonder if we would all still be as cheery when box prices go up...

If UD spends $X in licensing and spreads it across 12-15? products right now (depends on how you count Team Canada, Edmonton, etc.), if we cut the releases in half, there will inevitably be a bump in cost that gets translated down to us, the consumers. You can't halve overall production and still get OPC for $45/box or UD1/2 for $70/box.

I'm not trying to rain on the parade, but this is a league that doesn't want players going to the Olympics because the league can't figure out how to make money off it. Are they just going to lower licensing fees? It's actually more likely that if UD approached them with an idea to reduce releases for a reduced cost, the league would walk away from UD and either go to an exclusive with Panini or add Topps and ITG to the mix. The NHL and NHLPA are about growing revenues, not making collectors happy...

As far as what could happen to improve the current state (limited to UD products)...

Spread entry level products out further. I love that OPC comes out early, but go old school since it's an 'entry-level' product and split it into 3-4 releases of 200-300 cards. What this does is keep low-end collectors involved over the whole season. If I'm a new collector (or a young collector), OPC is an affordable pack and picking up Series 2 (late fall), 3 (early spring), and 4 (playoffs) is going to be more fun than watching others bust $10+ packs of SP Authentic or even more expensive packs of SP Game-Used. [This is really applying the same principle to OPC that they use for Series 1/2, except now with $2 packs instead of $4 packs] [I'm not sure how this would fall into the licensing, but maybe there is some flexibility for it to happen]

Increased value in mid-range products. I think UD has done a pretty good job with this recently, but it needs to continue. Black Diamond and Artifacts are pretty solid. It's hard to believe but Artifacts has consistently gone up in sealed box prices over the course of the year for the last few years. The RCs sell great (early and redemptions all the time) and the game-used is nice for the price point (good shots at nice patches and tags). There are still duds, though. Trilogy was a mid-end product with a high-end price tag and I'm sure some would argue that SP Game-Used is a low-end product with a high-end price tag. SPx is another 'brand' with no love. If UD is able to translate their success from SP Authentic and Artifacts to a couple more mid-range lines (new or refreshed), they would grow the hobby even more. Personally, I think they try too hard to draw on nostalgia. Do something 'new' in this price range and it's going to set a manufacturer apart (i.e. look at what ITG has done with Decades 80s & 90s sans base).

Tier the high end. Most collectors won't like this idea because they are mid-range buyers/collectors, but like the rest of the economy, there is more room at the top. Keep Ultimate. Keep The Cup. Add one more truly high-end release either over top of The Cup or shift The Cup up and create something between Ultimate and The Cup. I think ideally this should be a niche product, vintage memorabilia, something similar to ITG StickWork or Enshrined, something that targets a specific group of 'higher-end' collectors and changes from year-to-year (which is why it should fall between Ultimate and The Cup). [If we look at price points, this already happens. The problem is, the release has typically been a 'fail'. I'm interested to see how Panini does this year with Dominion, Prime & National Treasures(?). It will tell us a lot.]

The key for manufacturers is to make all their releases collectible on some level - at the price points they release them at. As much as one person doesn't like OPC, there are people willing to spend serious money to complete their master sets. The same can be true for a number of other releases (including ones that I might dislike).

[30ranfordfan]

I'll bite on this topic, though I have to qualify anything I write with "I don't beleive for a second this is where we're headed." No way UD (or Panini, for that matter) wants to reduce the number of sets they make. If anything, they'll push to increase that number.

IMO - Three manufacturers making 7 licensed sets each, 21 total, would be FAR better than the current system of 2 of them making 11 each. It would only drop the number of releases by 1.... but it would force all three to be inovative, and offer very good value in each set. Yes, you're going to $100 boxes that yeild $25 worth of cards - that's how it works - but the configuration of hits, plus the quality of the base, it would need to be there, becuase the compitition would force them to do it.


On Upper Deck specifically, here's the 7 I would go with:

Automatic (as is): UD Series 1 / 2, OPC, SPA, The Cup
Makes sense to keep (as is): Ultimate Collection

Then I'd make a hybrid of SPx & SPGU. If they want to do RCs #ed to Jersey #s still, cool. Make them Auto / GU like SPx is, and offer draft position parallels. Use some of the better inserts / patch / auto sets from both products, and make one big winner (full discloser, I still wouldn't buy it)

Then I'd make a hybrid of Ice & Black Diamond. Use the Acetate style cards like Glacial Graphs as a box hit. Bring back the old 90s style diamond format.... but with a modern tweak:

All cards are available as "single diamond" cards. SP the rookies (much like YGs) if you like, but keep the single diamond on the card
Make all cards available as "double diamond" parallels" and use the Ruby style that you see in the 1st tier of parallels now (I think they're #ed /100 ??)
Make all cards available as "triple diamond" parallels. This is where you have some fun with it. Make those parallels "Black Ice" (stealing the name from Rich) and while you might use the same photography as the base card, make these guys a full acetate thing.
Make all cards available as "quad diamond" parallels. This is where you use the Ice Rookie Patches type thing. Really limited parallels. UD may not have GU material of everyone in the base set to build out an entire set with this style, so come up with something else creative for the base set parallels? I don't know.... just thinking off the top of my head.


Of course, I didn't inlcude Artifacts in here, which I think is a very good product already. I didn't include any of the retro stuff (Champs, Parkhurst, etc) which I thought were good sets too. Instead of limiting them to 7 releases, I can suggest something else:

3 manufacturers, limited to 9 releases each (27 total. Is actually an increase in the number of licensed sets). The rules:

- Allowed a Series 1/2 type release, that counts as only 1 of the 9 (UD is the only one doing this now, but it effectivly ups the number of releases to 10 for each of them... and if this was allowed, everyone else would likely jump on board)
- Rookie Year players may only appear in five of the nine releases.
- Retired players may only appear in four of the nine releases.

It would limit the number of RCs coming out each year, without taking away the number of sets. It would stop companies from rehashing the same retired players over and over again in each set, without cutting them off (lots of us like them in there). Turn UD into something like this:

- Upper Deck Series 1/2 - YGs remain as is. Have to ditch the retired players from GU / Auto sets - but other than that, unchanged
- SPA - FW remain as is. Ditch the retired guys
- The Cup - Don't change a thing (RCs and retired included)
- "Black Ice" - A Black Diamond / Ice hybrid. Include RCs, no retired players
- SPx / SPGU hybrid - Include RCs, no retired guys

- Artifacts - Retired Guys included, no RCs
- OPC - Early season (August / September release) go heavy on total team content, large base set, but really focus on "this is what happened last year" kinda content. No RCs. No retired players (unless you're talking about guys that played the season before, and have since retired)
- Ultimate Collection - This is where you really pump the fact that you've got GU material from players' "Rookie Year" jerseys. Instead of making a Nathan Mackinnon Sheild / Auto card this year.... using a photoshoot shield..... wait until next year, when you can use the real thing. Combine "rookie year materials" with nice cards of established players too. Use retired players too. Don't need the rookies to make this a winner.
- Parkhurst Champion, heavy on the retired players (and current stars). No RCs.


IMO - That would create great balance. The number of RCs would drop, the over use of guys like Gretzky, Orr, and Howe would drop. Sets would be more focused on the stars of today.... while making some (obvious) sets to put the focus elsewhere.

[centrehice]

The NHL and NHLPA should not be making rules regarding cards that are manufactured by a 3rd party. That is simply way too much control. If the NHL has to control something through their licensing, it should only be affordability for children.

If any rules must apply, then at least one set per year must be affordable, Period.

[FrankToronto]

Fred Bear, you're not raining on anyone's parade, you're adding a dose of realism.

Bottom line is the licencing fees are too high and in order to make a profit the companies need to sell as many products as they can to a limited customer base. This comes as a catch-22 in terms of growth of the hobby.

[Bostonfan46]

Personally I like the set market of different price levels something like

low-end
OPC
UD 1
UD 2

mid-end
a new product involving rookie hits (something like Hot Prospects)
SP Authentic (for auto hits)
SP Game Used ( Jersey/ Mem hits)

High-End
The Cup
Trilogy/UD ultimate hybrid product