What happens When?

[ep3225]

Just curious to think what everyone thinks. What happens when the low returns on cards drives away the people who open the product just to sell it? With people bragging about all of the steals they get on eBay and all, what happens when more and more "busters" stop spending the money. It is inevitable that it will happen eventually. Will prices go up because of supply and demand? Or will the industry steadily dissipate? Opinions.

[canucksfan007]

Less cards on the market = higher prices on the cards out there.

It will most likely get rid of all the people who do this as a business or for extra income. They might not leave the hobby, but will most likely go back to how they were when they 1st started collecting, for the enjoyment of the hobby. It seems people are breaking less and less, but it only really applies to Panini in my opinion. Those super rare /5 or less cards from UD still surface from new products. It feels like there are some cards, /25 from Panini that never see the light of day.

Im sure Panini wont admit it ....... but if we saw the amount of UD wax busted each year in comparison to Panini ..... I think we'd be surprised at just how far away those numbers really are.

[13stepper]

Just curious to think what everyone thinks. What happens when the low returns on cards drives away the people who open the product just to sell it? With people bragging about all of the steals they get on eBay and all, what happens when more and more "busters" stop spending the money. It is inevitable that it will happen eventually. Will prices go up because of supply and demand? Or will the industry steadily dissipate? Opinions.

Good god where do these rumors keep coming from? Do you actually believe anyone, ANYONE, makes money cracking wax? No one has consistently made money cracking wax for many years. If they tell you they make money cracking cases and cases of products, they are lying.

I digress. To answer your question, yes, basic economics. We should see prices rise back up.

[Wickabee]

My guess is the secondary market would go up, then the market for wax would fall, then people would bust, then prices would go down. It can survive on that model for a couple of cycles, but not long.

[FrankToronto]

If no one cracks wax then the opposite of what we see today will occur. If you think only in the now then wax prices will go down and those who buy will reap the rewards from those waiting for cards to finally arrive on the secondary market.

But future products will have downward pressure on prices since they aren't turning over as quickly. Then the laws of supply and demand take over. Prices on the secondary market would decrease just as box prices have but the returns would be where they should be.

But it doesn't stop there and iron itself out. If suppliers are making lower margins then they'll have trouble covering their overhead and may not stick around to meet whatever demand there might be.

Either there needs to be more collectors (the hard route) to strengthen the market or there needs to be less products (easy route if it were truly that simple) in order to meet a more balanced equilibrium.

Only those collecting royalty cheques have it easy. If only they would think big picture then those royalty cheques might be larger.

[joecoolio]

If no one cracks wax then the opposite of what we see today will occur. If you think only in the now then wax prices will go down and those who buy will reap the rewards from those waiting for cards to finally arrive on the secondary market.

But future products will have downward pressure on prices since they aren't turning over as quickly. Then the laws of supply and demand take over. Prices on the secondary market would decrease just as box prices have but the returns would be where they should be.

But it doesn't stop there and iron itself out. If suppliers are making lower margins then they'll have trouble covering their overhead and may not stick around to meet whatever demand there might be.

Either there needs to be more collectors (the hard route) to strengthen the market or there needs to be less products (easy route if it were truly that simple) in order to meet a more balanced equilibrium.

Only those collecting royalty cheques have it easy. If only they would think big picture then those royalty cheques might be larger.

Don't forget about the Group Breaking phenomenon that has hit the hobby in the past few years. There are less individuals cracking, but more case breakers hence more singles on the market because only a small fraction of the cards dished out during group breaks are desired by the participants.

[Fred Bear]

Good god where do these rumors keep coming from? Do you actually believe anyone, ANYONE, makes money cracking wax? No one has consistently made money cracking wax for many years. If they tell you they make money cracking cases and cases of products, they are lying.

I digress. To answer your question, yes, basic economics. We should see prices rise back up.

At the risk of missing some hidden sarcasm, this is a the lie.

There is money to be made in cracking wax. IF, and this is a big, big IF, you are disciplined and have a sales network in place. It's not as easy as walking into your LCS, buying a case, and listing hits on eBay. If it were that easy, EVERYONE would do it.

And, please, don't put words in my statements. I'm not saying every product and every case will make 300% returns. Busting wax and selling cards is a grind, and an expensive one. There are products out there, though, where if you can afford to put the pack odds in your favor, you can make a reasonable profit (i.e. close to 20% after costs).

To the OP's question... it's complicated. On the surface, if less sealed product gets busted, presumably, less single cards make it to the market. But it depends on which product you're talking about and where the singles come from. Bust less Cup, yeah, singles are harder to come by (singles are driven by case breakers not box breakers). Bust less Score, probably not going to notice on the singles market (more people busting boxes/packs than cases). Thing is, The Cup is more profitable than Score, so it's more likely that 'big' guys will quit Score before the Cup. It really becomes a sliding scale, you'll lose small/random breaks from high-to-low and bigger/coordinated breakers from low-to-high. Trying to apply a simple 'let's break less of everything' and you can look at FrankToronto's post.

FrankToronto makes several good points. Product sits, prices come down, box prices fall, singles prices match... Singles prices go up, box prices go up... Circle of life continues. joecoolio's point should be considered as well. Group case breaking has become quite popular (and profitable for the coordinators) and that's not going to change unless prices get really out of whack.

[rustyisin]

gamblers will always gamble.