2013-14 UD Ultimate Collection Discussion Thread

[13stepper]

I guess that 05-06 is a steal because Crosby and Ovechki, 06-07 because of Malkin, 07-08 because of Toews, 08-09 because of Stamkos, ect. I think your wrong there. You have a very very small chance at hitting Mackinnon. Most (95%) of the boxes will have less than $100 worth of cards. Just because there is one player that will sell for $300 and all the others will be under $100 doesn't make that box a steal at $100.

There is no box that is a "steal" on release day.

Unless of course we talk about 05/06 The Cup, I believe it was $300 on release day.

[theboxbreaker96]

Unless of course we talk about 05/06 The Cup, I believe it was $300 on release day.

Wow that shocks me actually. I wasn't collecting then so I would not know. But yeah that's actually something I would have taken a shot at for $300!

[Fred Bear]

I guess that 05-06 is a steal because Crosby and Ovechki, 06-07 because of Malkin, 07-08 because of Toews, 08-09 because of Stamkos, ect. I think your wrong there. You have a very very small chance at hitting Mackinnon. Most (95%) of the boxes will have less than $100 worth of cards. Just because there is one player that will sell for $300 and all the others will be under $100 doesn't make that box a steal at $100.

There is no box that is a "steal" on release day.

I disagree. Some boxes go up in price post-release, thus they were a 'steal' on release day. Too many collectors forget that and focus only on the negative...

Quick Examples:
10-11 Ultimate Collection - ~$100 /pack at release - current is ~$150 (D&A)
13-14 ITG Stickwork - ~$100 /pack at release - current is ~$170 (Blowout)

A lot of, probably most, boxes are cheaper down the road, but not all.

And, like I said, IF MacKinnon keeps on at his current pace, it'll be a steal... $300 is probably a low estimate of what the MacKinnon RC will be selling at out of the gate.

[Also, for the record, 05-06 Series I is currently listed for $400/box at D&A. There is, count 'em, 1 card driving that price...]

[KingKuba]

I think mackinnon will be closer to $500...
It is a /99 after all..

[theboxbreaker96]

I disagree. Some boxes go up in price post-release, thus they were a 'steal' on release day. Too many collectors forget that and focus only on the negative...

Quick Examples:
10-11 Ultimate Collection - ~$100 /pack at release - current is ~$150 (D&A)
13-14 ITG Stickwork - ~$100 /pack at release - current is ~$170 (Blowout)

A lot of, probably most, boxes are cheaper down the road, but not all.

And, like I said, IF MacKinnon keeps on at his current pace, it'll be a steal... $300 is probably a low estimate of what the MacKinnon RC will be selling at out of the gate.

[Also, for the record, 05-06 Series I is currently listed for $400/box at D&A. There is, count 'em, 1 card driving that price...]

You are correct 10-11 SPA can also be included in your list of rising box prices. However my point was that even if it did go up in price it doesn't mean the original price was a steal. To me every single product is overpriced on release day. If you hit that Mackinnon or Crosby then yes it looks like a steal.

I would not buy 10-11 ultimate for $100 let alone $150 same with the others. That was my point. I fully understand with what your saying I misread your first post.

[netsinah]

Whether a box price will increase a lot well beyond the release date, depends upon the product. In general, the initial release has limited availability so it sells out to create demand. The distributors purposely make a small amount of cases available for sale for the "first wave". After that, the distributors raise the price and hope there's a rush for the "second wave" (which they again limit) and they'll reap better profit. If that works in their favour, the "third wave" will then be offered at an even higher price, and on it goes.

There are times when the second wave falters and then a few months later, the box price goes back down to the original release price and if sales are stagnant in the following months, the product could eventually be offered at less than the original release price, to clear it out. It's all supply and demand however we as consumers should recognize that the supply side is being manipulated by the distributors to increase demand and raise prices.

Another common thing done by distributors with popular products, it to require a dealer to purchase less popular wax in order to get the popular wax. So to get the product that everyone's clamoring for, the dealer will be forced to buy a certain number of poor selling cases. The dealers recognize it'll be hard to move something that's not being sought after unless they discount its price, so they raise the price of the popular wax to make up for the lower price they'll market the poor selling boxes at.

Since the next Cup issue will contain rookies from 2 years (similar to the 05/06 year), I expect it'll be popular so the distributors will again limit the amount released and it will follow the usual pattern after that. The same will likely occur for Ultimate since it's a very popular wax and has its followers.

As for the 05/06 Cup, it's original release price was $330 including gst (Canadian tax), then the second wave went for around $400 and after that, it was around $450 then $500 then $600 until a dealer here in Edmonton was selling it for around $750/box and that was about a year to a year and a half after its initial release. It was hard to find anywhere at that point and rumour had it that many people were hoarding unopened cases/boxes, hoping to cash in on the Crosby/Ovechkin hype later down the road.

"theboxbreaker96" mentioned that most boxes won't have the content to justify the box price, since the popular/valuable hits will be few and far between. That's usually true for all wax...yet people still fork out the dough to gamble on the "big hit" with most people disappointed and few rewarded. Luckily for collectors chasing specific singles/sets, there are usually enough "gamblers" willing to spend $$$ opening wax hoping to do well and those same box openers later sell their cards to recoup their outlay...and usually they always lose money. It's extremely rare to find wax which gives you a matching return on its initial cost or anything close to it.

So as always, it's up to you how you collect and spend your hard-earned money. Is the thrill of opening new wax worth the money and the likely loss? If not, let others take the risk but hopefully you'll be reasonable with what you pay to buy their singles, knowing almost all of them have already taken a hit.

[KingKuba]

Ultimate Fail checklist released. ...
120 rookies, 60 unsigned. The usual group.
They somehow managed a late strome gibson auto's so they made two rookie versions of each is what it looks like.


Damian Brunner conacher are /99 rookies....enough said.
Going to be some rough box breaks.

[theboxbreaker96]

Ultimate Fail checklist released. ...
120 rookies, 60 unsigned. The usual group.
They somehow managed a late strome gibson auto's so they made two rookie versions of each is what it looks like.


Damian Brunner conacher are /99 rookies....enough said.
Going to be some rough box breaks.

Where did you get the checklist at????

[KingKuba]

Can't wait to get my case hit brian Flynn /99 rookie....

[10-4 collector]

Ouch if you get one of those case hits, just like in 11-12 with De Haan, Eakin and Irving #ed to 99. Those probably sell for 15$! But I will still take my chance on a case!