BGS Grading Averages (chart included) for Young Gun Rookies

[kovyheater]

It can seem like a "game" - trying to get a 10 these days

[pwaldo]

It can seem like a "game" - trying to get a 10 these days

It has always been like that but now it seems like PSA and especially BGS try to fan the flames of people trying to "rig" the grading system.

[sparty07]

This is why I never quite understood the focus on young guns, there are 4,057 9.5 McDavid's out there, and yet they still sell for over $100 for a wildly common card

[jcharles66]

I added Toews to the chart below, and included a second chart with some Canvas young guns. I don't think there's a Toews, Kane, Crosby, or Ovechkin canvas rookie version.

	Young Guns BGS Grade
Young Guns	7	7.5	8	8.5	9	9.5	10	Total
Auston Matthews	3	7	15	29	227	1296	131	1,708
Connor McDavid	2	9	20	80	599	4057	350	5,117
Sidney Crosby	7	8	25	77	544	1615	106	2,382
Jack Eichel	2	9	7	23	179	1152	105	1,477
Alex Ovechkin	11	10	52	158	560	1389	51	2,231
Patrick Kane	1	4	9	72	387	365	0	838
Jonathan Toews	0	3	9	34	167	427	18	658
Total	26	50	137	473	2,663	10,301	761	14,411
%	0.18%	0.35%	0.95%	3.28%	18.48%	71.48%	5.28%	100.00%
	Young Guns Canvas BGS Grade
Young Guns	7	7.5	8	8.5	9	9.5	10	Total
Auston Matthews	0	0	0	0	9	67	65	141
Connor McDavid	0	0	1	3	12	290	267	573
Jack Eichel	0	0	0	1	19	322	271	613
Total	0	0	1	4	40	679	603	1,327
%	0.00%	0.00%	0.08%	0.30%	3.01%	51.17%	45.44%	100.00%

[michaelpatko]

This chart also expresses a point regarding rarity vs. demand.
Everyone knows that there are thousands of YG cards produced for a certain player, yet they are still more highly sought after than say a Trilogy numbered to 299.
Smaller print run does not automatically = value

[Taxi]

This is why I never quite understood the focus on young guns, there are 4,057 9.5 McDavid's out there, and yet they still sell for over $100 for a wildly common card

The issue is that there are so many cards that are stamped "rookie". The collecting community is likely to focus on one card as the real rookie card. UD S1/S2 is the iconic set in hockey cards now, with all the other companies being defunct and/or losing their licenses.

Also production doesn't really matter as long as demand outweighs production. There's also an appeal in collecting a "rookie card" that is still accessible to the masses and the average collector. For me, seeing all these limited cards out of /99, 299, etc... makes them lose their appeal, and they seem like one giant category of parallels. So if there's a neat one I'm into, I'll grab it, but otherwise it just doesn't have the same appeal as a YG. Obviously there are exceptions for cards like a RPA from the Cup, as those cards have become iconic in their own right.

[Simonja]

Would be interesting to see Toews and Price added to the chart as they are also from the tough 2007-08 year and are key Young Guns. Any chance you can add them?

Toews at 18
Price at 1
Kane at 0

Wasnt only Cup with brutal condition issues in 07-08. Makes the chase more fun anyway....but...none of em will come cheap thats for sure.

[kovyheater]

The issue is that there are so many cards that are stamped "rookie". The collecting community is likely to focus on one card as the real rookie card. UD S1/S2 is the iconic set in hockey cards now, with all the other companies being defunct and/or losing their licenses.

Also production doesn't really matter as long as demand outweighs production. There's also an appeal in collecting a "rookie card" that is still accessible to the masses and the average collector. For me, seeing all these limited cards out of /99, 299, etc... makes them lose their appeal, and they seem like one giant category of parallels. So if there's a neat one I'm into, I'll grab it, but otherwise it just doesn't have the same appeal as a YG. Obviously there are exceptions for cards like a RPA from the Cup, as those cards have become iconic in their own right.

The ultimate test of value is time. I think majority of these cards will be worth a whole lot less in about 20 years. There are just too many of them. Look at the Young Guns from the early 2000s. How many of those are worth what people are paying for common rookies from 2015-16 or more recent? I am currently sitting on about 500 Young Guns from 2005-06 through 2010-11 and I can't find a soul who will pay $1 for them.
Sure there will always be a Crosby every few years, but the vast majority of true rookie cards are worthless. As you said above, demand must outweigh production, which is truth in my mind.

I personally like serial numbered, hard-signed rookie autos. I avoid the event-worn patch fad that has consumed the market.

[Taxi]

The ultimate test of value is time. I think majority of these cards will be worth a whole lot less in about 20 years. There are just too many of them. Look at the Young Guns from the early 2000s. How many of those are worth what people are paying for common rookies from 2015-16 or more recent? I am currently sitting on about 500 Young Guns from 2005-06 through 2010-11 and I can't find a soul who will pay $1 for them.
Sure there will always be a Crosby every few years, but the vast majority of true rookie cards are worthless. As you said above, demand must outweigh production, which is truth in my mind.

I personally like serial numbered, hard-signed rookie autos. I avoid the event-worn patch fad that has consumed the market.

They didn't short print YGs in 2000. Since they started doing that, they have held value. Players like Nash and Datsyuk, who are stars but not generational players, have held value well.


You'll never be able to sell common YGs beyond a couple years from release. However any consistent NHL regular will have some demand, even if only a dollar.

You're right though, no one knows what will happen to YG value in 10 years. Since they started short printing about a dozen years ago, they have held value though. Maybe only a couple players from each year have enough star power to have real value, but that's not something exclusive to YGs.

[kovyheater]

Actually, from my recollection, since 2000-01, they have always been "short printed" and seeded about 1:4 packs. in 2002-03, they super short printed them to 1:24 packs for series 1 (Zetterberg, Nash), but not for Series 2 (Spezza). On
e could argue that 200-2004, the YGs were more rare than the 2005 to present YGs due to increased overall production of Upper Deck base cards.