Will Someone Offer Sheet Draisaitl?

[RGM81]

With the Connor McDavid contract expected to be announced tomorrow locking in the NHL MVP to a $13.25M per season cap hit, the Oilers are looking a little vulnerable under the cap.

While McDavid has one year left on his ELC, his wingman Leon Draisaitl is an RFA as of tomorrow.

The rumour mill has been swirling that he could get as much as $8M or even $10M per season on a new deal.

If you look at the Oilers cap situation: https://capfriendly.com/teams/oilers there's a lot of stress there. Big contracts for Lucic, Nuge, and Russell eat up quite a bit of cap, and they've already dealt away Eberle for the more cost-effective Strome.

If you're a rival GM do you seize the opportunity to get a legitimate top line player? Or at a minimum, further hamstring a rising team?

[bakemeister52]

I would trade off to get a legitimate top line player!

[tiger tiger]

I say no.

Not many teams have the cap room to sign Draisaitl to an offer sheet, since it will be in the $9M range to try to discourage Edm from matching. Plus it'll cost four 1st round picks. So unless you have a bunch of blue chip prospects already, there won't be anyone for Draisaitl to play with.

Not many playoff teams have cap room so it could be 4 lottery picks, which is pretty steep. And it'll be a huge cap hit too for the team giving the offer sheet.

Plus there's an unwritten rule that GM's don't screw over other GM's with other offer sheets. There's payback.

Last one was 4 years ago. Ryan O'Reilly by Flames.

It's cheaper and safer to go after UFA's or rental players.

Also, they can just dump RNH's contract and there's $6M there. And depends what happens with the cap next year when McDavid's contract kicks in. If it goes up $5M, then Edmonton is fine. Except now they will look to screw the team that did this to them. And they will have McD and Draisaitl locked up and those 4 first rounders will be low.

[rudeboy]

I would love to see Buffalo do it since Edmonton did it to us by sending an offer sheet to Vanek in 2008 Buffalo had to match it since they lost t Briere and Drury to free agency.

[tiger tiger]

I would love to see Buffalo do it since Edmonton did it to us by sending an offer sheet to Vanek in 2008 Buffalo had to match it since they lost t Briere and Drury to free agency.

yeah...but they're not going to do that until AFTER they get Eichel locked up on a long term deal.

[30ranfordfan]

Simple Answer: No.

Longer Version: NHL GMs are gutless, and are too worried about rocking the boat. Offer sheets are a dirty way of doing business (perceived that way) and not the "right way".

Nobody is going to sign him to an offer sheet, because they're too afraid of what other teams around the league will think.

Kevin Lowe was a (mostly) brutal GM for the Oilers. The fact that he went the route of offer sheets on more than one occasion... I'll give him credit for that.

The only thing is: You have to be in a position that you feel your team will be good enough that the 1st round picks you surrender won't be high.... but also cheap enough that you can absorb another huge contract.

10m per year, 8 years. Would the Oilers match that? I think they probably would... but it would be tough.

[RGM81]

I guess since McDavid took a paycut from the originally rumoured deal, they've got an extra $750K each year to play with.

But oh look, the Habs have finished signing almost everybody and still have a shade over $9M available... LOL

[tiger tiger]

I would think there would be more negotiations that go on before an offer sheet is given.

Habs could go to the Oilers and ask, are you willing to trade Draisaitl? If they say no. Then it would be asked if they would match an offer sheet of $9M/yr? If they say yes, then the Habs could ask, what do you want for Nugent Hopkins? If the price is too high, then Habs could say that we'd prefer to give up four 1st round picks for Draisaitl instead. If you give us a better deal for RNH, we'll take him instead and leave the offer sheet alone.

win-win for both sides.

[30ranfordfan]

Sure, but then the Habs lose all their leverage in that scenario.

Hypothetically: The Oilers are *WILLING* to go 9m x 8 years on Draisaitl (if they have to match) but they're trying for 8 years @ 7.5m, and expect to settle in the middle.

Montreal comes to them and says they will give the offer sheet, unless they trade RNH at a price they like.... and Edmonton doesn't like the price.

Edmonton also knows they can't keep RNH past next season, if they're spending that much on Draisaitl (Draisaitl's new contract will kick in for next year, but McDavid's isn't until the following season).

What incentive is there for Edmonton to trade RNH for cheap? They're better off letting the offer sheet happen, match it, and shop RNH the rest of this summer, next season, and next off season... until they get something they like.

If the Oilers really believe the offer is pending, they could just offer it themselves at that point too.

Habs could up their offer, make it an even 10 (figure out how to get under the cap later), and really force the issue - but if the Oilers are willing to pay that kind of money for him... just tell the Habs to do whatever they want, match it, and deal with the cap issues later is what they would (and should) do.

Only reason to negotiate with the offering team, IMO, is if you want something other than draft picks. If the Habs offered 9x8, and have to surrender 4 1st as compension: Oilers could come back and ask to make another trade to let the Habs keep the draft picks (look at the Shayne Corson offer sheet back in the 90s).

I would think there would be more negotiations that go on before an offer sheet is given.

Habs could go to the Oilers and ask, are you willing to trade Draisaitl? If they say no. Then it would be asked if they would match an offer sheet of $9M/yr? If they say yes, then the Habs could ask, what do you want for Nugent Hopkins? If the price is too high, then Habs could say that we'd prefer to give up four 1st round picks for Draisaitl instead. If you give us a better deal for RNH, we'll take him instead and leave the offer sheet alone.

win-win for both sides.