2017-18 Tim Hortons Production Run... is this for real? lol

[tbcurran1]

Random project today while bored haha.. I was looking at eBay and noticed that there are tons of CCP and TE cards for sale, but I also noticed that they are all selling at a very good rate of return. It made me wonder about the production run and other than the jersey cards and autos, I couldn't find info on the regular inserts other than the pack ratios. Anyway, put this together below based on the information from the back of a pack (hope it's right)... I found it very interesting and thought I'd share it in case others were ever curious about the same thing.

2017-18 Upper Deck Tim Hortons NHL Autograph Jersey (1:69,434) * 150 cards produced = 10,415,100 packs (31,245,300 total cards):

2017-18 Upper Deck Tim Hortons (100) 2:1
2017-18 Upper Deck Tim Hortons Game Day Action (15) 1:3
2017-18 Upper Deck Tim Hortons Top 100 (7) 1:4
2017-18 Upper Deck Tim Hortons Stat Makers (15) 1:5
2017-18 Upper Deck Tim Hortons Platinum Profiles (12) 1:9
2017-18 Upper Deck Tim Hortons Clear Cut Phenoms (14) 1:16
2017-18 Upper Deck Tim Hortons Triple Exposure (12) 1:24

Base = 10,415,100*2/100 = 208,302 cards of each player (20,830,200 total cards)

Game Day Action = 10,415,100/3/15 = 231,446 cards of each player (3,471,690 total cards)

Top 100 = 10,415,100/4/7 = 371,968 cards of each player (2,603,776 total cards)

Stat Makers = 10,415,100/5/15 = 138,868 cards of each player (2,083,020 total cards)

Platinum Profiles = 10,415,100/9/12 = 96,436 cards of each player (1,157,232 total cards)

Clear Cut Phenoms = 10,415,100/16/14 = 46,496 cards of each player (650,944 total cards)

Triple Exposure = 10,415,100/24/12 = 36,164 cards of each player (433,968 total cards)

Unless I'm way off, this is some interesting, eh? In other words, there are 36,164 McDavid TE's out there and each seem to fetch $30-$40 US (or more)! Huge supply, but even bigger demand! Hard to imagine why McDonald's gave up this market here in Canada... dumbos! lol :)

[RGM81]

If nothing else, these figures show why the Crosby auto is a $1,500 card eh? The proverbial needle in a haystack!

[tbcurran1]

No kidding, eh!

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[jim bradt]

Yikes. I think I will go to the casino. Probably better odds there.

[atruong317]

I'm glad that a lot of people are buying and enjoying these cards. It's not my cup of tea but getting more people in the Hobby is always a good thing.

Those are some crazy print runs though.
To give some perspective to this, the 2016-17 SP Authentic Update Young Guns, only an estimated 5000 of each YG was produced.
So you have a Gunetzel YG selling for around the same range as the TE Connor McDavid at an estimated print run of 36,164.

[MacDuff77]

Yeah, the Timmy’s release is an interesting phenomenon. I drink TH tea everyday, so it was a no brainer to pick up packs. It’s an attainable set to complete with the Clear Cuts and TEs holding values. I’ve found them hard to come by, so maybe part of the reason they hold value. Fun set to casually build. And my kids find them neat to look at and open, so that’s cool!

[tbcurran1]

It's definitely great for the hobby and I love seeing all the trading. I buy a ton myself every year... and really, based of these production runs and how much the better inserts fetch on the market, it's actually a decent low-risk investment (compared to buying/selling other UD products).

[pwaldo]

Seems about right for the print run. People always underestimate how big the print runs of stuff is and if this is going to be sold at Tim Horton's across Canada you have to figure a lot was printed. Much more than for stuff that goes to card shops and the like.

[Sharky94]

As I seem to recall, the previous two years there was something like 8 or 9 million total cards each year. So your PR of over 30 million seems a bit high.

[tbcurran1]

Sharky94 perhaps you recall hearing 8 to 9 million packs? If that was the case, then the total cards number I have above would be pretty accurate. Based on the per pack odds provided for jersey and auto cards, the math adds up... in other words, how else would you interpret this?

2017-18 Upper Deck Tim Hortons NHL Autograph Jersey (1:69,434 packs) * 150 cards produced = 10,415,100 packs (31,245,300 total cards)?