NHL Draft Lottery Tonight - Primer

[RGM81]

Big night tonight as the NHL will conduct the annual Draft Lottery. Here's what you need to know for unique and highly-complicated event tonight.

These are the full odds of getting the #1 selection and, presumably, Alexis Lafreniere, per nhl.com:

Team	P%	Odds
1. Detroit Red Wings	.275	18.5%
2. Ottawa Senators	.437	13.5%
3. Ottawa Senators*	.437	11.5%
4. Los Angeles Kings	.457	9.5%
5. Anaheim Ducks	.472	8.5%
6. New Jersey Devils	.493**	7.5%
7. Buffalo Sabres	.493**	6.5%
8. Team A	n/a	6.0%
9. Team B	n/a	5.0%
10. Team C	n/a	3.5%
11. Team D	n/a	3.0%
12. Team E	n/a	2.5%
13. Team F	n/a	2.0%
14. Team G	n/a	1.5%
15. Team H	n/a	1.0%

For the top 7 teams, nothing has changed. Those were their odds of getting the #1 overall pick before the re-jigged format.

This is where the fun begins.

If All Three Draws Are Won by Teams in #1-7 Group . . .
* The winning teams receive the respective top three selections in the 2020 NHL Draft. The remaining four teams in the #1-7 group not selected in the three draws are assigned NHL Draft positions 4 through 7 in inverse order of their points percentage at the time of the regular-season pause. The next eight Draft positions (8 through 15) will be assigned to the eight teams that do not advance from the Qualifying Round, in inverse order of their points percentage at the time of the regular-season pause. In these circumstances, Phase 2 of the Draft Lottery would not be necessary.

What I gather from this is that say Detroit-Ottawa-Buffalo ends up being 1-2-3. Great, easy. Ottawa's other pick is #4, then you get LA-Anaheim-NJ rounding out the top 7. 8-15 are based off who gets knocked out in the play-in round. Pittsburgh gets no advantage at all when if they get knocked out by Montreal--they don't "move up" to what would have been Montreal's #8 spot. It's all based on the points percentage so they're still going to be 15th because they had such a strong regular season record.

Now for the goofy stuff...

If the lotto ball for either 1-2-3 falls to a team in 8-15, the draw for that spot will take place after the qualifying round, and will be comprised of the 8 teams who don't advance. This is the ultimate wild card here:

* In each Phase 2 draw, all participants will have the same odds.

So if you're a fan of maximum chaos, let's continue with the notion of the Habs knocking off the Penguins. The 1st overall pick gets nabbed by a Phase 2 team. Any team that doesn't advance through the qualifying round has an equal 1-in-8 chance to win the lottery. Pittsburgh, despite being the highest-ranked regular season team that didn't get a bye into the first round, could jump all the way from 15th to 1st overall. They'd have to endure the humiliation of wasting a really strong regular season and the ignominy of losing to the Habs in a best-of-five series, but they'd have Alexis Lafreniere on their roster next season.

So there you have it - get ready for what could be a very interesting night.

[cygnusx1]

It would be pretty cool to see the Sens nab the top 2 picks. They went through a pretty rough couple years in terms of poor decision making, scandals, and general fan apathy, but they've put together a lot of young talent lately. If they put together a decent team I might actually take the 40 minute bus ride to an arena filled with the opposing team's fans to check it out (yes, that is what the Ottawa fan experience is like, in case you've never been)

[RGM81]

It's showtime!

While we wait for the draw, make sure to check out the SCF Traders Group - info is here: https://www.sportscardforum.com/thre...-Traders-Group

Sign up today and we will be starting on July 1st.

Who's going to be the lucky team?

[RGM81]

Bill Daly announces that a playoffs qualifying team has moved into the Top 3!

[RGM81]

Detroit has fallen to 4th!

[RGM81]

How displeased are you right now, if you're a Red Wings fans?

[RGM81]

Pretty solid for Ottawa - 3rd and 5th.

[RGM81]

Oh boy - 1st overall selection will be determined in a Phase 2 draft!

[RGM81]

Draft Order, pending Phase 2 selection:

1. TBD
2. Los Angeles Kings
3. Ottawa Senators (via San Jose)
4. Detroit Red Wings
5. Ottawa Senators
6. Anaheim Ducks
7. New Jersey Devils
8. Buffalo Sabres

[cygnusx1]

Imagine if Pittsburgh or Edmonton win the 1st overall pick