Crash coming

[30ranfordfan]

I hope not! I see some people complaining about how expensive a Lafreniere YG is. Isn't it a good thing that you can get some value and even profit from buying and opening product? It is also nice to look through your stash and find some of your cards are actually worth something and gained value. An Ovechkin prizm card for example. Yeah people say you should not collect for value but honestly who wants to collect something that will eventually be worth next to nothing? The honest answer is not many people. I hope hockey catches up to the ther sports.
I think for already established star players the boom will continue especially when supply becomes scarce.

Bingo!

The amount of complaining I saw in FB groups, regarding the price of Lafreniere, was unbelievable. We complain when we bust a box and get nothing close to the value, and then we complain if the cards are too expensive. It doesn't make sense.

With UD Series 1, I think a lot of the complaints about high prices... it has to do with very reason why YGs are such a hot commodity, despite their high print run. A ton of people collect these. Set building is a big deal. It's a "standard" rookie card - SP'd enough to make it something people will chase, but not so SP'd that people can't get one. The prices on the top guys are going through the roof.... so it should come as no surprise that the most hyped prospect in a few years (I'd say since Matthews) is commanding a big premium.

I have not built one of these sets since 2015-16, but I'm guessing a lot of people build theirs like I used to. Buy 2 or 3 boxes. That'll get you a base set, 18 YGs, and hopefully few decent cards for trading. The extra hits you don't want - flip them for some other YGs, and after three boxes and some trades.... you can easily be at (roughly) half the YG set. Then buy the ones you need to complete it. Most years, the top guy didn't break $100 out the gate - so you could do the whole thing for $350 or less.

Now? If you have to buy the top card, that's cost $250. Wax is being cracked at a record pace.... so it's shooting up in cost too. What I just described: You're looking at $360 just for the three boxes now (easily) so it's going to be tough to put together a set for under $600, if you don't pull Lafreniere.

To a degree, yes.... it's "collect what you like". I think if you become obsessed about the value, then you're going to have a hard time being happy in this hobby.... but you have to be mindful of it, and of course everyone wants to know that their cards are "worth" something decent.

I know if I tried to sell of my Ranford collection tomorrow, I'd never get back the cash I've put into it. I've outbid myself too many times.... and it's unlikely that his cardboard is ever going to take a sharp rise. That's okay..... but I do know if I wanted to sell the stuff off, there would be a market for it, and there has to be - otherwise people (in general) are just not going to buy it anymore.

As long as hockey doesn't turned into football and basketball, with prices for wax going to an insane level(Panini's fault?). I mean, when a box of Donruss sells for $350 + tax in Canada, I am priced out of the hobby. But with UD hobby now selling for almost $200 a box a week after releasing, I am afraid the same is happening in hockey too.

It is happening, but I can see this being a temporary thing. The "post pandemic" crash that the OP speculates on... I'm betting this is a trend that goes away, at least to a degree.

I don't believe it's anything Upper Deck (or Panini) would be doing, other than letting their distributors play pricing games (I'm guessing they could set a "max" price that boxes can be sold for, if they're coming directly from the manufacturer). When the secondary market is as hot as it is though... hard not to expect that to happen.

If distributors get the box for $75, and sell it the LCS for $85, who sells it to a consumer for $95...... everyone is happen. If that consumer then flips it on Facebook for $140: You know that the other three levels are all going to want their piece of that, if they can get it. So the distributor starts selling it for $105, and the LCS has to raise their costs to $120.... mean while it drops on ePack too.... and starts out at $120 there.

[cwpucks]

their have been many good points made and i agree the rookies of players like Gretzky, Hull, Orr, Roy, Crosby, Ovie, Matthews and McDavid will hold their value. However i do think the other stars like Mackinnon, Kane, Point, Aho, Petterson..... will see a drop a in value when all the fly by night card collectors start to leave and sell of what they got.

It may not be in 12-15 months but i do think card companies are over producing product that is not numbered like they did in the junk wax 1990s. The hobby like with what happens in the stock market will see a sell off. My guess is because hockey is the 4th sport for card collecting we will not see as much of the change. But in the other 3 sports my guess is a lot of people will not be happy.

like with Art and other collectable things that can sell for $$$$. you hear of the stories that some one found or inhabited a collection and sold it off for $$$$$$. but that is few and far between. most people that make $$$$ are the dealers. like with the Gold Rush in the 1800's few struck it rich mining for gold most lost $$$ but the big winners were the people that sold the miners the equipment food and entertainment. so in our hobby that would be the card companies and full time card dealers.

I collect mainly vintage in G and VG condition and some current stuff of players i like. i dont really care about value because i will never sell them so i guess they are just cardboard with pictures on them to me in that sense. so the price increase has not really effected me that much. I just have seen and read things that got me thinking that the HOT sports card market maybe in for a big correction at some point and wanted to see what everyone else thought.

[mooneyes]

I've noticed some of the current stars Canvas YG's are getting scarce, at least on Ebay which helps create value. Perhaps not a true rc but I have never cared about that. It's like the next best thing to a YG but much more rare. Low # OPC Platinum rc's also command big dollars as another example of why things will never be like the 90's.