Ovechkin Young Guns.

[mooneyes]

I see the last sale on eBay for a PSA 10 was for 11,200.00 CDN!
Last year about this time one could be had for around 5 k I think.
One ending tomorrow current bid of 10K CDN.

Any guesses what final value will be?

I have to wonder what the ceiling on this card could be? If he breaks Gretzky's record, it couldn't be a 100k, or could it???

[RGM81]

As I understand it, the basketball people are getting in on Ovechkin. It's helping drive up the prices. Is it sustainable? Who knows. But wow if you have one sitting in the PC, it's got to make you smile.

I'm old enough to remember getting a raw for $50.

Times, they are a-changing.

[30ranfordfan]

As I understand it, the basketball people are getting in on Ovechkin. It's helping drive up the prices. Is it sustainable? Who knows. But wow if you have one sitting in the PC, it's got to make you smile.

I'm old enough to remember getting a raw for $50.

Times, they are a-changing.

I can remember passing on raw copies in that $50-$60 range for a long time... thinking "good deal!" just wasn't interested in getting an extra copy.


I do have to wonder about the ceiling on him. All the hype around the possibility of him breaking the goal record is what's driving this jump. If he does it (I think he will), does the end result in card values being akin to someone winning the Calder?

Most seasons, it's pretty obvious who is going to be named rookie of the year. Kaprisov, for example. When they win.... there is no bump in value, because people have been paying ROY prices for months.

I wonder if the same thing happens with OV. People are paying sky high prices for him, as if he's the all-time goal leader. How much room is there to grow when he breaks the record?

Also.... for anyone who wants to rehash his numbers, and the likelyhood of him breaking the record:

He signed a 5 year deal in the offseason, 2021-22 being the first of the 5 years. Let's assume he will play all five of those seasons, barring injury.

He started the year with 730 career goals, 165 shy of setting a new career record (Gretzky has 894).

Simple math says he needs to AVG 33 goals a year, for 5 years, and he's the new record holder. Considering he's only had one season where his goal total was lower than that (32, in 2010-11) if you ignore shortened seasons.... it did not seem crazy that he'd be able to pull it off.

Of course his age factors into things. Assume the NHL plays 5 full 82 games schedules, and Ovechkin stays healthy for the entire 5 years (misses a few games every year, but never anything major) - it's a lock, right?

Well, you have to think that at some point, age does catch up to him. I think most of us did not expect this year to be the season when that happens... but you have to think that as early as 2023-24 (the 3rd year of his deal) it could become a factor. The concern around the goal record is that his decline could be sharp, not gradual. He goes from a 35-40 goal guy, to a 15 goal guy, very quickly. (If you think those concerns are overblown that's okay too.... but this is the only kind of reasoning that could make anyone believe he won't break it).

If he puts up seasons of 40, 35, 18, 15, 12 (or something like that?): That's only 120, and he's still quite a bit back. If he remains elites into that third season... 40, 35, 35, 15, 15: That's 140, and still 25 back.

What I'm getting at, is that coming into this season, he needed to remain an elite goal scorer (35+ range) for four of the five seasons on this contract... which could be hard to do. While he shows no signs of slowing down, in 2024 it's very likely he will be.

What he is doing this year, IMO, has basically cemented the fact that it's a matter of "when" and not "if" he'll break the record.

He has 20 goals through 26 games. I think 60 is very likely... certainly 55+. Let's assume he scores 55, which is below his current pace.

That would leave him needing 110 goals to break the record, with 4 years left on his deal. He'd need to AVG 27.5 goals to do it, and that's below his lowest season total.

Assume he pops 55 this year, and 35 next year (big drop, but still good numbers) - That's 90 goals over two seasons, leaving him 75 from breaking the record.... he'd need just 25 a season for three years to do it.

His current pace of play makes my suggestion of 55 goals this year, and 35 goals next year, appear to be low. Instead of 90 goals over the two seasons, I bet he's closer to 100, and for the sake of numbers - let's say he scores 100 between this season & next.

He would need just 65 over the last three seasons of his deal to break the record - and if father time gives him a 3rd very productive season (35 goals in 2023-24 ?) and he goes into 2024 needing something small like 40 goals over two seasons to break the record: I don't see how it doesn't happen.