Will Ovie catch Gretz ...Goals ?

[Devlin]

Alex only 30 yrs old, 411 goals to catch the great one

Total points, I believe gretz is pretty safe

[JEG]

Be tough i would say no. Even if he has 8 consecutive 50 goal seasons he is still just out of reach. He will certainly be top 5 and at best 2nd.

[30ranfordfan]

I would be shocked if he caught him.

He's on pace for 43 this year (has 8 already). Let's just round up and say he finishes at 45. He'd end his season wtih 520 (good for 35th all time).

Let's then say he plays another 4 seasons (ages 31, 32, 33, 34) at the same pace, adding another 180 to his total. He'd be 34 years old, and have 700 career goals. That'd be good for 8th all time.

Then at the ages of 35 and 36, he has two more 40 goal seasons. That gets him to 780, and 3rd all time (maybe 4th. Jagr - though unlikely - could still top 780).

Then at the ages of 37 and 38 he pops 35 goals in each season. Brings him to 850.

Then he has a 30 goals season at age 39, for 880 total.

He comes back at age 40, and needs to score 15+ to set a new record.



Think any of that is realistic? I mean, that he could pop 20 goals in the NHL still when he's 40 isn't crazy.... if he had Jagr level of dedication to his fitness..... but keeping up a pace of 40+ until he's 36?? I doubt he'll still be hitting the 40 goal mark past the age of 33.

Gretzky played 20 years in the NHL... and while ignoring things like injuries & lockouts.... it's really simple to say that he averaged 45 goals per season (44.7 to be exact). He beat that average in each of his first 8 seasons, 9 of his first 10, but never beat that number from season 11 and onward. In his first 13 seasons, his lowest goal total was 31 (that was in his 13th season: 1991-92). He only broke 30 once after that.



Gretzky & Ovechkin are certainly not the same type of player, but it's unlikely Ovechkin will keep up these numbers long enough to catch Gretzky. Almost nobody stays in this league into their 40s, and it's hard to keep up your "prime" numbers much past the age of 27 or 28.... and near impossible to keep your numbers up when you're into your mid 30s.

Ovechkin, if I had to guess, finish (somewhere) between 700 and 750 career.

[30ranfordfan]

I would be shocked if he caught him.

He's on pace for 43 this year (has 8 already). Let's just round up and say he finishes at 45. He'd end his season wtih 520 (good for 35th all time).

Let's then say he plays another 4 seasons (ages 31, 32, 33, 34) at the same pace, adding another 180 to his total. He'd be 34 years old, and have 700 career goals. That'd be good for 8th all time.

Then at the ages of 35 and 36, he has two more 40 goal seasons. That gets him to 780, and 3rd all time (maybe 4th. Jagr - though unlikely - could still top 780).

Then at the ages of 37 and 38 he pops 35 goals in each season. Brings him to 850.

Then he has a 30 goals season at age 39, for 880 total.

He comes back at age 40, and needs to score 15+ to set a new record.



Think any of that is realistic? I mean, that he could pop 20 goals in the NHL still when he's 40 isn't crazy.... if he had Jagr level of dedication to his fitness..... but keeping up a pace of 40+ until he's 36?? I doubt he'll still be hitting the 40 goal mark past the age of 33.

Gretzky played 20 years in the NHL... and while ignoring things like injuries & lockouts.... it's really simple to say that he averaged 45 goals per season (44.7 to be exact). He beat that average in each of his first 8 seasons, 9 of his first 10, but never beat that number from season 11 and onward. In his first 13 seasons, his lowest goal total was 31 (that was in his 13th season: 1991-92). He only broke 30 once after that.



Gretzky & Ovechkin are certainly not the same type of player, but it's unlikely Ovechkin will keep up these numbers long enough to catch Gretzky. Almost nobody stays in this league into their 40s, and it's hard to keep up your "prime" numbers much past the age of 27 or 28.... and near impossible to keep your numbers up when you're into your mid 30s.

Ovechkin, if I had to guess, finish (somewhere) between 700 and 750 career.

Who was the dummy that wrote that? lol


I'm sure there was a more recent thread on here (I know at some point in either late 2020 or early 2021 I changed my tune. I do expect that Ovechkin will break the goal record.

Everything I wrote in 2015 was correct. It's damn near impossible to score at a 40+ pace in your 20s... or early 30s.... much less mid-late 30s.

Ovechkin's 50 goals this year is the most ever by a 36 year old. He now has 780 career goals. 21 back of Gordie Howe, and 114 back of Gretzky.

Sometime in the first half of next season, unless a major injury happens, Ovechkin will pass the 800 goal mark, and then pass Howe to be the 2nd leading goal scorer of all time.

He's 4 seasons of 30 goals away from the record.... and if 2021-22 is any indication, he should best that number by a lot next year.... anyone doubt he can get 80 over the next two seasons? (22-23 and 23-24, I mean). That would leave him 34 shy, and 38 years old.

[creasecollector]

I think he does break the record. Being so close, I think he will keep going until he gets it and the Capitals will have no issues allowing him to do so.

It's always fun to look back at these types of hockey threads, because everything stated is correct and yet Ovechkin's numbers have risen so far above that because of how great of a goal scorer he really is. That is what makes hockey (and sport overall) so fun. You just never know what is going to happen next or when history will need to be rewritten.

Maybe this thread will once again be bumped up when he breaks the record... time will tell.