Too many Young Guns?

[discomike]

A question for those who are still blindly buying Upper Deck's flagship product (Series 1/2/Extended). Do you think that the fact that there are now 150 Young Guns a year is going to water down the value of these cards? To put some perspective into this, 05-06 only had 87 total Young Guns (including chacklists) and this was arguably the greatest rookie crop in history. 150 Young Guns in a year when there are maybe 15 rookies one could arguably see as being even minor stars is excessive to say the least, in my opinion.

[manthis]

yepper i hear you.
but i gotta spend my money
on something..

[parco10]

Yes it's definitely a watered down product not just with the YGs but the product as a whole.

I think a lot of this can be attributed to the demand for the product, I see 'regular collectors' breaking 2,3,4 cases of the stuff. With this much product out there it will definitely affect the card values. Right now you can go on COMC and pickup most of the series 2 YG set for less than $1/card. To be devil's advocate here, Upper Deck is just trying to satisfy our appetite for product even if there is no actual value added.

Just my 2 cents!

[discomike]

Yes it's definitely a watered down product not just with the YGs but the product as a whole.

I think a lot of this can be attributed to the demand for the product, I see 'regular collectors' breaking 2,3,4 cases of the stuff. With this much product out there it will definitely affect the card values. Right now you can go on COMC and pickup most of the series 2 YG set for less than $1/card. To be devil's advocate here, Upper Deck is just trying to satisfy our appetite for product even if there is no actual value added.

Just my 2 cents!

And that's the thing. If you're a set builder, you now need to a case of three differnt products (at something like $1500-$2000 per case) in order to complete your set. Not that many people have that kind of coin to spend on a niche hobby like this, and even those that domay not want to considering how little value you get these days. And the only value is in the Young Guns, because the inserts are absolute garbage for the most part (Hundo P has to be the worst insert I've seen).

I stuck with MVP this year, and still managed to complete my set (including all redeemed rookies) without having to spend a small fortune. Will likely do the same thing next year, if I decide to do a set at all.

[mooneyes]

If you are a set builder the only sensible thing to do is buy a set already completed by case breakers.
I mean they could narrow down the YG's to 20 most likely decent players with 10 per box and everyone could complete one with 3-4 boxes, but than the star YG would be very common, and cheap. Not too mention some late round surprise future stars would be without a YG, which is a bummer.
As for inserts, some really stink, some are average, and a few are incredible. All depends on your taste, and age bracket. Something for everyone it seems, unless one is very old school and only wants base cards and base rookies. MVP sounds good for that.

[pwaldo]

Yup they are starting to kill a good thing. Happens with every sport, every product that is popular. The companies just slowly suck the life out of the product until it is no longer worth it and they eventually end up ruining it.

[Reenthelawman]

There are definitely too many Young Guns. Not only the 150 YG of the "base" set, but (a) the 90 YG of the Canvas set and (b) the 90 YG of the Canvas Black parallel set. To say nothing of French, Clear Cut, Exclusive and High Gloss parallels, as well as all of the inserts (like the 100-card 05-06 Retro subset, which itself contains 25 YGs and their parallels).

To me, this has devalued the low or mid prospect YGs, but it has also significantly increased the initial value of the high end rookies. The YGs for Zegras, Caufield, Seider, Raymond, Swayman and Knight came out of the gate smoking hot in terms of pricing.

I can see how Upper Deck would be reaping the immediate benefits, but I really believe there is a significant risk that many collectors will drop off in the midterm because putting together a complete set has just become prohibitive financially.

[RGM81]

There are definitely too many Young Guns. Not only the 150 YG of the "base" set, but (a) the 90 YG of the Canvas set and (b) the 90 YG of the Canvas Black parallel set. To say nothing of French, Clear Cut, Exclusive and High Gloss parallels, as well as all of the inserts (like the 100-card 05-06 Retro subset, which itself contains 25 YGs and their parallels).

To me, this has devalued the low or mid prospect YGs, but it has also significantly increased the initial value of the high end rookies. The YGs for Zegras, Caufield, Seider, Raymond, Swayman and Knight came out of the gate smoking hot in terms of pricing.

I can see how Upper Deck would be reaping the immediate benefits, but I really believe there is a significant risk that many collectors will drop off in the midterm because putting together a complete set has just become prohibitive financially.

The bolded section I think is the key one for UD's decision-making process. If they're able to spread out the top guys across *three* products it allows them to have those guys driving additional demand to match the increased supply. Meanwhile, adding in the retros/parallels of the key guys from S1/S2 in Extended also gives it additional life and value.

The crucial aspect of ePack is what drives all of this, IMO. They've got a lot invested in the platform and clearly it's paying off big time for them. It doesn't matter that much if 45 of the 50 YG's per set are $3 or less on COMC, they're selling out every time on there. That's guaranteed revenue without having to connect the middle man (distributors, card shops, etc.) so it's all for them.

[discomike]

The bolded section I think is the key one for UD's decision-making process. If they're able to spread out the top guys across *three* products it allows them to have those guys driving additional demand to match the increased supply. Meanwhile, adding in the retros/parallels of the key guys from S1/S2 in Extended also gives it additional life and value.

The crucial aspect of ePack is what drives all of this, IMO. They've got a lot invested in the platform and clearly it's paying off big time for them. It doesn't matter that much if 45 of the 50 YG's per set are $3 or less on COMC, they're selling out every time on there. That's guaranteed revenue without having to connect the middle man (distributors, card shops, etc.) so it's all for them.

To paraphrase the bolded part of you're response - basically Upper Deck has figured out they can gouge their customers for more coin by spreading out the Young Guns between 3 overpriced producrs rather than two. Let's not kid ourselves, it's a cash grab and nothing more.

[RGM81]

I mean, they're a business doing business. It's not like there's anything unique about that approach.