Bedard effect

[Nickwire]

Just curious on opinions.....
Do we think boxes might be tough to find because people will hoard them? Knowing full well the value will only go up and up.

And secondly, any educated guesses on his yg or fwa price in the first weeks of release? At what point do you bite the bullet and just buy his card instead of the upper deck lottery?

[mooneyes]

I think FOMO (fear of missing out)is going go to big with him. A raw McDavid YG goes for around $1,200.00. That sets the bar to some extent. Collectors won't want to miss out and have to pay that much.

I think it should be $150 but I bet it comes out on eBay at $5-600.00

[Nickwire]

I can't remember, for reference, what was mcjesus at on release?

[mooneyes]

I can't remember, for reference, what was mcjesus at on release?

$250

[SabresGuy]

It was crazy when Kirill Kaprizov was about $400 out of the gate.

[cjb]

Just curious on opinions.....
Do we think boxes might be tough to find because people will hoard them? Knowing full well the value will only go up and up.

And secondly, any educated guesses on his yg or fwa price in the first weeks of release? At what point do you bite the bullet and just buy his card instead of the upper deck lottery?

Naaaaaa. Upper Deck is going to overproduce the heck of this this stuff like they've been doing for the last 2 years. With overproduction unopened boxes will probably never go up, regardless of who's inside the box. At best, the price of a hobby box will stay the same in the long run

Unopened product from 19-20 and before have gone up in price because it was under-produced and interest in card collecting was low. In 20-21 interest was starting to heat up and the prices for unopened product for this year are stable. 21-22-23 is when things really heated up, as a result Upper Deck overproduced, and unopened products are still available at discounted prices.

The best time to invest in unopened product is when there is relatively low interest in the hobby and people stop caring about card collecting Don't know when that day will be. Probably in 3-4 years.

I'm guessing his card will open at about $350 and then settle down and about $225

[Savard18]

Well, let me start off by saying that as a Hawks fan of the last 40+ years I'm so enthused and PUMPED about this team and the direction it's headed, the Hawks are going to be real good in the next few years.. Connor Bedard is a magician, his shot is something I have never seen - fans often talk about Auston Matthews shot, but MAN - Bedard is in his own category.. Look, I'm not trying to be hyperbolic but Bedard really is a mix of McDavid, Matthews and MacKinnon - if you took their best attributes and put them into one player - you'd get Bedard... He's also a very humble kid, he has no ego or narcissism about him at all - he's just a really good kid that's obsessed with hockey and improving his game (as if he needs to improve anything, lol).....So I suppose my point is that he's indeed a really special player - and I think his Young Gun values will reflect that and emulate McDavid's or Matthews when they were released, perhaps more considering Bedard's YG is going to be in Series 2 so if he gets off to a hot start the first half of the season I could see his YG going for $400 conservatively on eBay right off the get-go..

So yea, I'm going to try to buy as much Series 2 as possible, and I will be everywhere around my area buying as much as I can at retail prices the day it's released - I'm going to every Walmart, every Target and every retail outlet around here buying all of it at retail prices -- because I know for a fact the card shops are going to charge an arm and a leg for boxes - even retail and blaster boxes... Obviously I can only get blasters and fat packs at Walmart, Target etc - but I'm fine with that because they'll only be $18-25 each (USD) - and there is zero doubt in my mind the LCS' will try to sell them for $50, and I'm sure hobby boxes will be AT LEAST $300...

So yea, prices are going to get really weird really soon, at least for products that contain Bedard considering what their secondary market values will be when they're finally released... It's going to be bonkers..

So yea, expect to shell-out at least $400 for a Bedard Young Gun on release day, perhaps even more depending on what he does the first half of the season.... Now will they come down?? I don't know -- did Matthews ever come down?? McDavid?? no they didn't, perhaps they did a little bit after the release day frenzies surrounding those cards - but they progressively went back up after that..

That's just my .02 cents.

[30ranfordfan]

Minimum $350, wouldn't be surprised if it's pushing $500. That assumes he's having an "okay" year.

If he's the front runner for the Calder (likely) and a top 15 (or better) scorer in the league (possible) it could dwarf that. $700 or $800 is very realistic.

McDavid was the last "generational" player to come along. Bedard is being talked about like that. McDavid was $250 out the gate.... but that was in a time when there were (about) 15 Young Guns, all time, that sold for $100+

Bedard will also have had months to live up to the hype, and he may very well do that. This is going to be a very expensive card, I think.

[Savard18]

Minimum $350, wouldn't be surprised if it's pushing $500. That assumes he's having an "okay" year.

If he's the front runner for the Calder (likely) and a top 15 (or better) scorer in the league (possible) it could dwarf that. $700 or $800 is very realistic.

McDavid was the last "generational" player to come along. Bedard is being talked about like that. McDavid was $250 out the gate.... but that was in a time when there were (about) 15 Young Guns, all time, that sold for $100+

Bedard will also have had months to live up to the hype, and he may very well do that. This is going to be a very expensive card, I think.

I totally agree which is why I think Dave & Adams pre-sale for Series 2 is bonkers for $200 bucks a box.. Let's not forget that Matthews was $200-250 as well right off the bat.. It's going to be really interesting to see what happens with Bedard YG's, especially with all of these "professional breakers" breaking cases every week and flooding the market with ultra-modern cards... I mean there is no doubt the entry fee to get into a Bedard YG will be $350-400, but how much of that is going to be based on hype, and not so much supply and demand?? that's what intrigues me... Keep in mind because of these "professional breakers" we really haven't seen a "high value Young Gun" in a while -- at least not a YG that has maintained it's value. I know Caufield and Zegras were up there for a little bit, but they fell off and they're barely fetching $50 at the moment..

I should start a thread about this but I think these "professional breakers" really hurt the hobby by flooding the market with cards that would be considered "rare" or very desirable in normal circumstances and that really destroys the value of these cards, because 5-7 years ago before the "Covid hobby boom" there weren't "professional breakers" flooding the market - so these "rare" or highly desirable cards came to market slowly/progressively - and THAT set the value - but now supply and demand isn't a "thing" with modern cards, because due to the breakers the supply outweighs the demand... And to make matters worse they sell cards for $3.99 buy it now that would be $20-25 dollar cards if they were coming to market naturally er progressively by collectors breaking a box or two at a time... And this is really starting to piss me off as an economics guy because this is a good way to destroy the hobby - because at the end of the day collectors WANT rare cards - and I'm not saying YG's are particularly rare, but they WERE much more scarcer when 85% of the supply were still in unopened material, as opposed to today where only 40-50% of the supply is in unopened material because the breakers broke half the supply off the bat...

And look, no doubt the breakers are hear to stay so it's going to be up to the card companies to do something about this - I mean they're going to have to cut supply down or Short Print, er Super Short Print the more desirable cards like Young Guns - because the direction the hobby is going at the moment is NOT sustainable.... I mean these breakers are breaking for the high-end case hits, for the high-end collectors that can afford to drop $2500 on a card and they're leaving the "garbage" for the more humble or modest collectors, essentially devaluing the "box hit" that most collectors view as "higher-end" cards..

Sorry for the breaker rant, but Bedard is certainly going to be a good case study, and proof of how these professional breakers negatively effect and affect the hobby... Because you know, these breakers could care less about the Bedard YG's - naw, they want the Bedard Clear Cut's, High Gloss /10, Exclusives /100, the French Variants + the Canvas and obviously the Hobby inserts - the high-end stuff... So we'll see what happens.