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08-22-2007, 08:15 PM #1
My New Trading Philosophy
Time and time again I was swept away by the craving for a game used or autographed card in a pack of cards. I found myself spending countless amounts of money in search of decent "hits" and coming up empty every time. I have recently discovered a new found appreciation for the rookie card. I'm not talking about the new rookie cards from new products. Im talking about the rookies of players like manny ramirez and gary sheffield and frank thomas, the star players of the 90's. If you look at a tony gwyn rookie today it is worth well over $40. Imagine the value of the rookie cards of star players years down the road. The majority of game used cards in affordable products wind up being worth $8-$10. Some of these rookies are worth the same if not more. The difference is that the rookie cards have the potential to grow in value! I can guarantee you that the gwyn rookie was not worth $40 in the 80's but look at it's value now. The majority of GU/ Auto is affordable products will only decrease in value because the are overproduced. An fine example of this trend can be seen in a GU card I recently traded. It was an 01 UD MVP Bat Duos Carlos Delgado/Jose Vidro dual bat card. In the january 02' edition of beckett baseball card monthly this card was valued at $25. Now it is valued at $15 dollars.
Am I right in my thinking about the pricing of cards? What do you all think of my thoughts?
Please dont tell me "you can get high valued gu cards on ebay at a good price". Im not looking for that response. I am looking to generate a thourough and mature discusion for all to participate in.
I guess what Im trying to say is that I feel like a key avenue for collectors is being missed out on not because they are unaware of it, b ut because they are distracted by all the glitz and glam dished out by the card companies.
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08-22-2007, 09:22 PM #2
Actually I remember Tony Gwynn's 1983 Topps RC being around $30 or so.
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08-22-2007, 09:27 PM #3
its really a crap shoot though.....while gwynn was cheap in the late 80s, guys like sandberg and boggs (from the same set) booked more back then than currently.
i think football is more stable than baseball when it comes to 80s stuff just because it was much less collected back then.
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08-22-2007, 11:26 PM #4
I tend to agree here. What I fall on the ground laughing so hard at is when I see some average rookie's Exquisite card sell for $500. Truth is, that value has nothing to do with their talent nor potential necessarily, it's just because of the high end/rare product itself, and card companies and collectors turning loony. Imagine there was a Hanna Mottola Exquisite rookie card in 2001 selling for hundreds of dollars, LMAO.
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08-24-2007, 01:17 PM #5
I recently too had "The Rookie Card Realization". I used to almost exclusively collect game used and autograph cards of the teams I like, but am now trying to get into the rookie card scene as well.
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08-26-2007, 10:58 AM #6
Originally Posted by JayJagFan
I was big on the game used and autos as well but recently traded or sold the last of them away. I feel that the rookies are less publicized and advertised by the card companies and dealers. Everybody wants to go out and get the GU or auto. People want the rookies too, but they aren't in as high demand. Plus, if a prospect hits it big and you had their rookie card that you obtained at a low rate you'd be a very happy collector.
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09-05-2007, 12:30 AM #7
Rookies, as a baseball fan, are great mostly if you go for sleepers. Take some of Joba's cards right now, or even the person I collect most, Clayton Kershaw. I'm sure some of these cards will only go down in value, because hype is often not what counts.
A guy I talk to a lot at my favorite card shop has a great story about going into a card show with $100 during Shaq mania. Bought one box, got a Shaq rookie. Sold that for $100, got another box, two Shaq rookies. Long story short, the guy walks out with $1800.
Essentially, you have to find players underhyped or who are total sleepers for rookies to be REALLY good.
But, rookies are also fun for me to go and look back at. Who made it and who makes you laugh at yourself for thinking they stood a shot makes rookie collecting great for me.
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09-05-2007, 09:14 AM #8
Well I must say it is alot cheaper trying to get good RC cards instead of GU and Autos.
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09-05-2007, 09:45 AM #9
It's all a question of how long you can delay your gratification...do you want the instant gratification of the big name guy right now...or can you set the little guys aside for a few years in hopes that they will pan out. I've thought many times about just getting my hands on as many RCs as I can and setting them back, because you never know who's gonna be the next big thing in a few years. It is a really nice way to kind of hedge your bets....you're not putting nearly as much money into them and there's a better chance of a high upside than average/below average GU/auto.
I don't collect GU/autos at all unless they are of the players I collect. If I pull one from a pack, I'm somewhat psyched...but only because I know I'm going to try to use that GU/auto to get one of my players. My collecting philosophy is I want everything I can get of the players I collect...whether it's a $200 Auto or a Topps Total base card.
One way to watch for the sleeper RCs that's somewhat easy is just keep all the RCs that nobody really wants. You can trade off the Calvins and Adrians and Bradys and keep the lesser guys. That way you still have good tradebait with the big name RCs, but you also still get to keep a bunch who may end up being huge down the line...and it costs you less to do so.
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09-05-2007, 01:54 PM #10
Originally Posted by OnePimpTiger
That is the path to the darkside...seriously, remember how many people were dumping tons of money on Ben McDonald, Danny Ferry and Gregg Jefferies? Remember when CCP listed Al Leiter's '88 Donruss at $1.25? Al Leiter! While in the other end of the same set, you had guys like Matt Williams and Tom Glavine going for $0.15.
Unfortunately, you don't get many sleepers anymore. At least not for more than a couple of months. And all of the prospects are so over-hyped and over-priced that there really isn't a cheap alternative to the rookie of the week. I remember when people wouldn't touch minor league sets with a 10 foot pole, now they'll drop $60 or more on a box of Just Minors filled with chrome and autographs (mostly of guys who will never make it to the bigs).
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