Case Busting, Is It A Losing Venture?

[barrow]

Hey everyone,
I'm thinking about taking my box breaks to the next level and bust cases, but i'm real weary that I'm not going to come even close to recouping my costs. I'm not looking to make a killing off busting cases, if anything I'd be happy breaking even from eBay sales.

So what does everything think? Is it hard to make your money back on a case? Is it possible to profit from a case? Any tips?

Thanks!

[02ViperACR]

You may be able to make your money back but you'd have to hit some BIG cards .. .and the odds of that are not very good ... id stick with Boxes.


C

[sivjosh]

Over the long haul, if you could make money opening packs/boxes/cases and selling the singles, Topps/UD/Donruss would stop putting cards in packs/boxes/cases and sell the singles.

[barrow]

Thanks for the responses guys. It's not so much making money, I'm more looking to break even or come somewhat close to breaking even. Anyone bust cases on the regular?

I guess it's back to boxes! I can still see myself splurging on a case to feed that temptation.

[CubFan777]

I think every once in awile cases would be good.I think getting a case of 07 Bowman Chrome might be a good investment right now.

[mikeko0925]

Question, if you are just going to sell the cards to make about the same amount, why not just keep the money

[barrow]

Question, if you are just going to sell the cards to make about the same amount, why not just keep the money

Because I'm addicted to crackin wax, I'm a fiend. I'm also launching a live box breaks website in the coming weeks. So either way I'm going to be busting more boxes than I have in the past, but never having busted a case before it seems real appetizing.

[parsetdx]

Mike - That is a very simple, but great point. Now let me take it one step further.

If you start looking at this whole thing financially, then we're actually talking about making an INVESTMENT in the hopes of yielding a higher RETURN. I would tell you there are much better ways to invest your money in the hopes of a short-term return, or at the very least similar ways that bear the same or LESS RISK. If you really want to look at this financially, then you should be looking at % Return, which is at the most basic level Profit / Cash Outlay. So on a $1000 case of Bowman Chrome, if you somehow beat the odds and manage to eek out $1200 by reselling the cards (which is a HUGE if - i.e. the risk of this proposition is quite high), then you're only really looking at a 20% Return. Most likely though, you wouldn't even get close to making back the $1000 through reselling, let alone turning any profit at all. Now it's not so attractive financially and should really only attract the very highest risk seekers - if we're looking at this from a pure financial perspective of course.

Now, if you want to take to the next level, you can actually calculate the Expected Value of purchasing a case. It's a simple calculation, not perfect - but simple nonetheless. You know the odds of pulling X from the case because you know the odds of pulling X in opening so many packs. You turn all those into percentages, then you calculate the average value of each of those "X" types of cards - if you can even get this type of information of course. Then you multiply it out, add it up, and you arrive at your final expected value for opening a case. Now, again, from a purely financial perspective you'll almost always see that this is a losing proposition. So again, you have to BEAT THE ODDS and BEAR THE RISK in order to even break even, let alone turn a profit.

So what's my point? My point is also quite simple - if you are opening packs, boxes, or cases in the hopes of turning a profit and seeing a RETURN on your INVESTMENT then you should be putting your money into a lower risk instrument than baseball cards that will likely earn you a better financial return over the long run. Or, if you prefer to bear the high risk in exchange for the potential high reward, I would tell you again you're better off playing Blackjack where the odds are MUCH more in your favor than cracking a case of cards. The only possible way you can break even with baseball cards is if you place an intangible and undefinable value on obtaining the cards, above and beyond the financial component.

In sum? If you're in the hobby purely as an investment or "way to make money" then bail out immediately before you lose your shirt. If you actually gain non-financial-related joy from pulling a card of an upcoming prospect or your favorite team's star player, then you're in it for the right reasons and you're willing to take a potential financial loss in exchange for the joy you get from owning that card - not selling it. And only when you're in that mindset should you be taking a risk like buying a case - at the end of the day if you don't hit the big card and you can't turn your pulls into gold, then you have to be happy with the stacks of cards you have sitting in front of you.

[barrow]

Thanks Parset. I really appreciate your breakdown. I think everyone has me confused for someone looking to make a quick buck off of busting boxes. On a $1,000 case I'd be happy to get $900.

Great insight guys.

[golfermatt91]

It just depends on the product you bust... obviously you have better odds of getting something huge in some stuff then others.