Is the Hockey Card Hobby Healthy?

[Goose97]

I tell anyone that asks.... you can't be in it for the money. I just think there are way too many people that are. As nice as it would be to say "that's their problem" the fact is they make a significant enough portion of the collectors out there, that if their money leaves, Upper Deck & ITG would be in big trouble.

Ranfordfan in looking back now, I have to recind a bit of what I said, and agree to to this.
The other way I look at it as well is that there are the ones in the hobby getting lucky on thier pulls and selling what they get, on the principle of sell it while it's hot, making thier money, and profiting. Usually they aren't after set or players or teams. they might have had interest at one time, but now see how easy it is to make a buck. Anyone with good math skills, and the resources to do this knows how it works.

Completly I agree that if thier money leaves, the card companies would suffer. Some guys that do this usually get bored a lot quicker, and find other things that peak thier interest. That's what UD or ITG have to hedge thier bets on that more people that figured this system out replace the ones that get bored and move on.

Me personally. Am not an expert on this. The thought has crossed my mind to try it. But maybe I'm oldschool, and really my intentions are collecting. trading off what I have to get what I want. Besides! The people I talk to are great! That's what drives me.

[MatsSundin13Rocks]

Ranfordfan in looking back now, I have to recind a bit of what I said, and agree to to this.
The other way I look at it as well is that there are the ones in the hobby getting lucky on thier pulls and selling what they get, on the principle of sell it while it's hot, making thier money, and profiting. Usually they aren't after set or players or teams. they might have had interest at one time, but now see how easy it is to make a buck. Anyone with good math skills, and the resources to do this knows how it works.

Completly I agree that if thier money leaves, the card companies would suffer. Some guys that do this usually get bored a lot quicker, and find other things that peak thier interest. That's what UD or ITG have to hedge thier bets on that more people that figured this system out replace the ones that get bored and move on.

Me personally. Am not an expert on this. The thought has crossed my mind to try it. But maybe I'm oldschool, and really my intentions are collecting. trading off what I have to get what I want. Besides! The people I talk to are great! That's what drives me.

Here is my 2 cents worth.

Some people are in it for the love of the hobby. They want to collect their favourite player, team, or sets and they are happy doing that and those collectors either bust packs or boxes plus buy/trade for singles they need or just buy singles they need. They aren't in it for the money but they are in it because they love collecting cards though they may hate some aspects of card collecting.

Some people are in it for the above but also realize that sometimes you may as well sell your big pulls instead of trading and buy the cards you need. I'm in this category. I love the hobby and have a Mats Sundin PC collection that has cost a lot of money but I'm happy with it. My goal is never to sell it if I don't have to and to keep growing it. I also am addicted to buying packs and boxes so I do that as well when I could just buy Sundins I need. For me from now on I'm selling my big hits and some smaller hits because I can. For me it is buy Sundin's, trade for Sundin's, buy boxes/packs, and sell what I can.

For others it is all about buy singles low and sell high or buy boxes/cases for as cheap as possible and pray to hit it big and sell. I've seen some greedy wheelers and dealers. Do whatever to make a buck. All about profit and reselling for a big increase.

Still need all of the above for the hobby to survive including dealers just need honest dealers that sell for a fair price.

[FrankToronto]

I agree with a lot of RGM's points. Despite all this talk of low print runs, when you add up all the product releases then add up all the individual singles of a player whether they are /25 or /4000, what you end up with is simply... over saturation. There is over production in the hobby today. It's just in a different form compared to what we refer to in the early 90's.

Most on this board are fairly serious collectors. Most collectors and definitely potential collectors are not on hobby boards. For them, following the product releases and making a decision on what to purchase with their money and hope not to take it in the pants is a crapshoot. Sure, you can say that you should just buy what you like and not worry about the money. But it's human nature to try to get the most out of your money. In fact, it's called being financially prudent. The problem escalates when the product being purchased has stated odds and therefore you can't expect a decent return for your money.

Going back to the issue of oversaturation... with all these cards produced each year, what happens is they all become less special since yet again another one is produced. Cards become "another one" as opposed to "the one". So now people are supposed to spend their money with no expectation of getting their money's worth for cards that aren't "special". You can see why potential collectors have a hard time getting into the hobby.

[SenatorsFan]

95% of the cards produced each year will inevitably begin plummeting in value (albeit at different paces) as the next product is released. People try to disguise the root of this problem as production mismanagement on the part of UD when in reality this trend is characterized by the market place, simple as that.

These trends emerge in any free marketplace in which commodities are being distributed. New products are introduced to the public annually and consumers seek out the latest goods which in turn devalues items of the previous year. Everyone desires what is fresh and new, everyone wants to buy low, and everyone wants to sell high. When the sellers outnumber the buyers, the value of the items will inevitably be reduced.

Don't fool yourself, this is how it all works. It has absolutely nothing to do with the state of the economy, the number of people interested in the hobby, or the manner in which the cards are produced or priced.

[FrankToronto]

The reason is Supply & Demand. That is the character of the marketplace. Not simply a matter of new products being released. But because numerous new products are released following the release of numerous old products. The supply of products and issue of singles is through the roof.

There's an old economic theory which I forget the name of. But here's a simple example. In general, if there are samples of jams for customers to taste in a grocery store they will walk away buying a jar of jam if they are given a sample of a half dozen jams. Give a potential customer twenty samples of jams and they are overwhelmed with a buying decision and will walk away without purchasing a single jar.

I assure you that if there were less card releases each year then there would be more collectors entering the hobby and more demand for the singles. It would be a less overwhelming hobby to enter, any given rookie card, for example, would maintain greater value because all collectors will be chasing the same cards from the same products as opposed to the broad spectrum there is today, and you'd find that a single with a higher print run would have greater demand for it than the numerous that are only /25. When a manufacturer prints hundreds of short printed cards of the same player they're really just diluting the market because at the end of the day a jersey card isn't a scarce commodity when there are so many others printed just like it.


I'll agree that values decrease year over year as a result of set collectors moving onto the new product. But that's supply and demand working still. Not simply because a new product is released. Other collectors will still show an interest in the same cards collectors were buying at the time of release to complete their sets if they are unique and not one of many others produced for many other product releases they are overwhelmed by.

[SenatorsFan]

The reason is Supply & Demand. That is the character of the marketplace. Not simply a matter of new products being released.

Exactly, but the continuous release of products dilutes the market and thereby creates much more supply than demand, therefore lowering the value of the commodity. The two concepts go together hand in hand. We're on the same page.

I assure you that if there were less card releases each year then there would be more collectors entering the hobby and more demand for the singles. It would be a less overwhelming hobby to enter, any given rookie card, for example, would maintain greater value because all collectors will be chasing the same cards from the same products as opposed to the broad spectrum there is today.

Very true, but in the end, the manufacturers attain maximum profits by releasing numerous products every year, they're just feeding the consumers. I mean, the hobbyists will buy anything UD throws at them, so why would UD refrain from doing so? To help sustain a prosperous secondary marketplace? Not likely. But yes, that would be ideal wouldn't it?

[FrankToronto]

I see we're on the same page now.

As for attaining maximum profits, none of us can see UD's financial statements. But we do know this about the hobby. It has been decreasing steadily over the past 20 years. Profits can't be maximized without growth. As board members we tend to think about the hobby from the perspective of current collectors. But the hobby as a whole is dependent on all collectors and that base continues to decrease for all the reasons mentioned.

It takes more than serious collectors spending their money on case breaks to keep the hobby thriving. You need thousands more spending here and there on packs from low end to high end. It's those thousands that are dwindling.

[SenatorsFan]

As for attaining maximum profits, none of us can see UD's financial statements.

I can assure you that producing various sets throughout the year generates more profit than a one-set-a-year system would.
1) The manufacturer can produce sets that accommodate low, mid, and high spenders.
2) The manufacturer can produce sets that appease different types of collectors (ex: autos, jerseys, rookies, base-sets, team oriented sets such as habs centennial, etc)
3) Of course, consumers love to buy stuff that is new and fresh. Releasing a new product every two-weeks is ideal.
I guarantee you that as a business, UD has taken every nuance of the hobby marketplace into account when forming a line of products best suitable for the attainment of maximum profit.

It takes more than serious collectors spending their money on case breaks to keep the hobby thriving. You need thousands more spending here and there on packs from low end to high end. It's those thousands that are dwindling.

There certainly aren't as many collectors these days as there was two decades ago, but this is not a cause of market dilution. The manufaturer sells the majority of their inventory, they make money. The consumers now have the cards. If the number of hobbyists began to grow, the manufacturer would simply increase their inventory to accomodate the higher number of consumers. We'd still be in the same position, more supply than demand, its an inevitability.

Essentially, what I'm trying to get across is that hightened interest in the hobby does not equal a more stable secondary market.

I don't necessarily expect everyone to fully rationalize what I'm saying, but that's fine. Mind you its the truth.

[FrankToronto]

I can assure you that producing various sets throughout the year generates more profit than a one-set-a-year system would.

Thanks, but we all know that. That has nothing to do with this topic.

There certainly aren't as many collectors these days as there was two decades ago, but this is not a cause of market dilution.

It's definitely one of the reasons.

Essentially, what I'm trying to get across is that hightened interest in the hobby does not equal a more stable secondary market.

We're talking about the hobby, in general. Not the secondary market on it's own. The secondary market is a direct result of the health of the hobby as a whole. If the primary market is hurt - and there are a lot less collectors today than in the past and the ones that are still here are tighter with their money - then the secondary market is aligned.

I don't necessarily expect everyone to fully rationalize what I'm saying, but that's fine. Mind you its the truth.

I don't think you fully understand every aspect of the hobby today. You make good points, but it's not that simple as you've pointed out.

[30ranfordfan]

That may be true. Heightened interest doesn't necessarily equal a more stable secondary market. I can guarantee you though, the inverse is 100% true:

An unstable secondary market will lead to a further drop in interest.

This is not me arguing that I'm not making enough money, or getting a very good return on my investment. As I've said in a few other posts, I don't really care a whole lot. I don't spend enough money on this stuff to really be out so much that it's killing me.... and more importantly, I like doing it.

That all being said.... how many people can afford to, year after year, afford to break $700 worth of wax, to put together a set worth $500, that would sell for $300, MAX, in two years time? And do this every single year? Even if you can afford to be doing that.... most people are going to get very frustrated very quickly. This hobby won't hold onto people for much longer than 3-5 years (I would imagine you'll start seeing that wave of people who picked it up in the 05-06 season start dropping out, en masse, any time now..... if they haven't already).

Essentially, what I'm trying to get across is that hightened interest in the hobby does not equal a more stable secondary market.