What are the Odds?

[FootballCardFreak]

Writing Team Trial 5/5

By Kyle Hymel aka FootballCardFreak

Fluke. That is all I have to say about the rookie quarterback situation last year. Both of the first round quarterbacks came into the league and put up good rookie seasons. The vast majority of the time, quarterbacks are not as successful in their rookie season. Many times, heavily hyped rookie quarterbacks will not have a higher value for their cards than when they first did in their rookie seasons.

I just laugh when I see collectors paying as much for a Mark Sanchez rookie auto as some do for a Peyton Manning auto. Why buy right now? Even if you have to get a piece of your team's new player, at least wait until the hype dies off a little bit because chances are rookie quarterbacks won't return the investment at least in the first year or two.

With all of that said, this is also a very weak draft class. Stafford was only the number one pick because Tebow and Bradford decided to wait one more year to enter the pros. The reason Sanchez entered the draft was because those two passed on the draft this year, and Freemen might not have even been a first round pick if Tebow and Stafford would have declared for the NFL draft.

Matt Ryan at least had a chance to do some good in his situation. Ryan had some targets to throw to as well as a great running game to support the passing game. If you look at Stafford's situation, all he has is Calvin Johnson. The Lion's offensive line was horrible last year, and they did little to improve that weak point. The Lions are possibly the worst team in NFL history yet collectors are paying top dollar for Stafford's products. I'll pass.

If you really want to invest in a rookie QB like Stafford, Sanchez, or Freemen; at least wait until the hype goes down a bit. I can guarantee that by at least mid season 2 of these quarterback's card values will decline significantly if not all 3 of their card values.

If you look back to 2007 you will see that the 6th selected quarterback, Trent Edwards, has arguably been the most successful of the top 6 which include JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, and Drew Stanton. If you want to look back to 2006, Vince Young and Matt Leinert got most of the attention while Jay Cutler slipped under the radar of many collectors. Now, Cutler is a pro bowl quarterback while Young and Leinert don't even start for their teams. Should I further my case with 2005? Alex Smith, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, and David Greene were all busts. Alex Smith was the number one overall pick. Aaron Rodgers looks to be a star, but he makes my point for waiting until the hype goes down. One year after Rodgers was drafted, his cards could be bought for very cheap compared to his rookie year hype. Now his cards are worth a lot of money again and if you held off for the honeymoon period you got a nice return on your investment.

In conclusion, the odds are not good for quaterbacks in their first few years. If you must own some cards of a certain player, at least wait for the hype to die down.

[Glebe]

Hopefully this provides more insight for "prospect" collectors..most of those high prospects NEVER pan out..it's always been that way so I don't see why they waste thousands of dollars on them..good read.

[sports collector]

Could make the same case in baseball

People who are spending 4 figures on Bryce Harper autos need to take a look at reality because he might never make it to the majors

[Glebe]

I don't even know prospect names..but I looked bryce up just to see..

haahhhaha

http://cgi.ebay.com/Bryce-Harper-USA...d=p3286.c0.m14

[sports collector]

Not even an auto...

Here is his auto

I guess they did die down already...last time I checked they were at $2000

But that was right after his appearence on SI

Here is a patch auto

http://cgi.ebay.com/2008-2009-USA-BB...d=p3286.c0.m14

Yeah right

[gladdyontherise]

Harpers Patch/Auto in the latest beckett was 1,000. Thats 2x + more than Strasburg's same card..

[gmoney168]

What are the Odds?

By Kyle Hymel aka FootballCardFreak

Fluke. That is all I have to say about the rookie quarterback situation last year. Both of the first round quarterbacks came into the league and put up good rookie seasons. The vast majority of the time, however, quarterbacks are not as successful in their rookie season. Many times heavily-hyped rookie quarterbacks will not have a higher value for their cards than when they first did in their rookie seasons.

I just laugh when I see collectors paying as much for a Mark Sanchez rookie auto as some do for a Peyton Manning auto. Why buy right now? Even if you have to get a piece of your team's new player at least wait until the hype dies off a little bit because chances are rookie quarterbacks won't return the investment at least in the first year or two.

With all of that said this is also a very weak draft class for the NFL. Matthew Stafford was only the number one pick because Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford decided to wait one more year to enter the pros. The reason Sanchez entered the draft was because those two passed on the draft this year and Josh Freemen might not have even been a first round pick if Tebow and Stafford would have declared for the NFL draft.

Matt Ryan at least had a chance to do some good in his situation. Ryan had some targets to throw to as well as a great running game to support the passing game. If you look at Stafford's situation all he has is Calvin Johnson. The Lion's offensive line was horrible last year and they did little to improve that weak point. The Lions are possibly the worst team in NFL history yet collectors are paying top dollar for Stafford's products. I'll pass.

If you really want to invest in a rookie QB like Stafford, Sanchez, or Freemen at least wait until the hype goes down a bit. I can guarantee that by at least mid-season two of the three of these quarterback's card values will decline significantly, if not all three.

If you look back to 2007 you will see that the sixth selected quarterback, Trent Edwards, has arguably been the most successful of the top six which include JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck and Drew Stanton. If you want to look back to 2006 Vince Young and Matt Leinart got most of the attention while Jay Cutler slipped under the radar of many collectors. Now Cutler is a pro bowl quarterback while Young and Leinart don't even start for their teams. Should I further my case with 2005? Alex Smith, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, and David Greene were all busts. Alex Smith was the number one overall pick. Aaron Rodgers looks to be a star but he makes my point for waiting until the hype goes down. One year after Rodgers was drafted his cards could be bought for very cheap compared to his rookie year hype. Now his cards are worth a lot of money again and if you held off for the honeymoon period you got a nice return on your investment.

In conclusion the odds are not good for quarterback’s values to go up much in their first few years. If you must own some cards of a certain player at least wait for the hype to die down.

[pootshwan]

I just laugh when I see collectors paying as much for a Mark Sanchez rookie auto as some do for a Peyton Manning auto.

Great read. I couldn't agree with you more. This ALWAYS baffles me.

[gmoney168]

Articles: https://www.sportscardforum.com/articles/?p=743
Digg: http://digg.com/football/What_are_th...Forum_Articles
Prop: http://www.propeller.com/story/2009/...orum-articles/
Buzz: http://buzz.yahoo.com/article/1:0433...the-Odds?usc=1

[BruteJJR]

look at david carr also a #1 overall bust
i guess the people paying the big bucks are hoping for the rookies to become superstars maybe like what happened with adrian peterson which i dont foresee in this year's rookie QBs