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10-29-2009, 08:23 AM #1
Is The Media Overhyping H1N1?
I saw a report on CNN this morning saying that 67,000 students stayed home from school yesterday with flu-like symptoms.
A few thoughts here...
1. 67,000 is a relatively small number. If you divide that by 50 states then an average of 1340 students per state stayed home. In my state we have 55 counties so using that number there were about 24 students in my county who stayed home with the flu yesterday. Big deal. We have around 5500 students so about .0004% of the student population has the flu...
In a county of 35,000 people, 24 students having the flu is hardly an epidemic.
2. How did they get that data so quickly? Schools on the west coast didn't close until 7PM EST and the report was at 8AM EST this morning, so they collected data from every school district in just 13 hours? I find that hard to believe. Something tells me that the media is coming up with estimates and quoting them as fact.
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10-29-2009, 08:32 AM #2
Minor correction but 24/5500 is 0.4% not 0.0004%, the point remains though. Personally, I don't think H1N1 is a huge concern to me at this point, and as such I have not bothered attempting to get vaccinated. I would say it is worth following a bit though as it sounds like it could get worse
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10-29-2009, 09:22 AM #3
Yeah, thats what I get for trusting a calculator instead of doing it myself LOL.
Between myself, my wife and my 3 kids, the only one of us to get vaccinated is my wife. So far none of us have gotten the flu but my wife currently has a bad head and chest cold. Myself and my 3 kids, perfectly fine.
Did the vaccine cause her cold? Of course not. But so far myself and the kids have been healthier from just drinking lots of orange juice and eating fruits, vegetables and oatmeal.
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10-29-2009, 10:24 AM #4
I've said from the very beginning the media is over-hyping it. The regular flu kills many more people every year than H1N1 has in it's entire history, yet it's the next plague. And what are the precautions for H1N1? The same thing people do every year during flu season...don't shake hands, don't cough or sneeze without covering your mouth and nose, if you're sick, stay home. Just more media fear mongering, nothing new.
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10-29-2009, 10:41 AM #5
I worked a few days with Mollen earlier this month, and they said the fear of H1N1 should be a bigger concern.
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10-29-2009, 11:26 AM #6
From what I've been told by family and friends that are doctors; H1N1 is actually less dangerous than the normal flu to the normal person but MORE dangerous to children and teens. For some reason the virus seems to be most dangerous to kids and teens only, as infection growth rates have spiked really significantly in this age group, but curiously not the elderly, although the docs have a theory that since H1N1 is similar to a lot of the viruses that were around in the 40s and 50s that they may have a natural immunity from their childhoods.
Nice run-on sentence there.
Anyway, that's what I've been able to ascertain so far.
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10-29-2009, 11:39 AM #7
The reason H1N1 is concerning is because of its effects on certain population. Now all I am about to say is preliminary, but it is concerning.
H1N1 seems to attack people under 30 more aggresively than other populations and has had a death rate of about 6% in this population from studies in Mexico, Central, and South America. Flu typically kills the very young and the very old. People in their late teens and mid-twenties are not suppose to die from the flu.
People in their maybe 40's and 50's and over seem to have some protection from this flu virus. The CDC thinks it maybe one of two things, a previous vaccine or similar flu in the 40's-60's.
People in the unexposed group may get a severe inflammatory reaction in their lungs which causes them to need to be intubated(placed on a breathing machine). They can not get enough oxygen to their whole body and they die.
A severe inflammatory reaction in the lungs causes a big fluid build-up in the organ. Think of anytime you get a burn. What happens? You get a blister. This is your body trying to heal itself. The lungs function by exchanging gas. If you place much fluid in the lungs, you can no longer exchange gas well. It is a side effect of our body trying to kill the virus which causes death. We have no idea who will have this response. No way to tell.
The effectiveness of anti-virals against H1N1 such as Tamiflu is not known currently. You have to have outcome data of pateints in different pathological states with the infection before anything can be stated. We might get preliminary data this spring as people get the virus, but I suspect nothing could be truthfully stated for another year at least.
Now the studies coming out show the vaccine is highly effective of protecting a person from the virsus. It is the only cure we have right now.
Personally, I would not take the risk and have already gotten my vaccine.
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10-29-2009, 12:46 PM #8
Data collection is faster now because the governemt is aware of how bad this could be. Anyone with a positive test is being reported to the health departments in their county. Since most of the reporting is electronic, data collection is faster.
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10-29-2009, 01:12 PM #9
only 2 months ago the administration released the "expected numbers" which were astronomical. The CDC followed either that day or the next saying that the number would be far less. Now why would the administration go against the CDC on a health issue and who works in the administration that is smarter than the cdc? That said, yes, I think the media is overhyping it.
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10-29-2009, 01:27 PM #10
At that time, the CDC had not released the information on the protection of the older populations. You can find fault in the adminstration on not communicating this to each other. Not much more though.
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Originally Posted by duane1969 
