Contenders worth it?

[Yipper]

I'm sorry, but this simply isn't true.

Your argument amounts to: Product costs me more to buy than it did them to make, so I lose. If you truly believe this, why would you ever collect? I'm being serious.

Of course products sell for more than it cost to manufacture them... cards, cars, homes, milk, gas... it is all manufactured or processed for LESS than what it costs in the marketplace. In fact, products are EVEN marked up if you are buying at the wholesale level (i.e. below retail). Manufacturing cost has NOTHING to do with the 'value' of that product, especially when you are talking about collectibles.

You can, however, compare retail price to collectible 'value'. Some products make it - Score, UD1 & UD2 (at least at initial release), BTP. Some products don't - SPGU, SPA (from some of the opinions here), Contenders (the OP's question).

I tend to agree with your comments on the 'value' of Contenders. Products which rely on RCs will live and die by that year's crop. This year, RNH and Landeskog will define a lot of these late products, no different than Eberle, Hall & Seguin defining most of last year's. Contenders does pack in more 'hits' then SPA and they are in the same neighborhood on price, so it's a natural comparison. SPA probably loses out on 'perceived' value - 1-2 booklets plus more patch autos per case seems to give collectors more to go after. SPA is a hit, though, for the same reason UD1 & UD 2 are - droves of collectors who don't even know the internet exists collect these sets in addition to the many of us who do.

The debate comes hand in hand with first fact I stated.

First thing, when you "collect" something, the whole concept revolves around taking something and treasuring as a good which satisfies yourself. As defined in a dictionary - collecting or a hobby is: "an activity or interest pursued for pleasure or relaxation and not as a main occupation."

So in that sense, whether something gives you a return monetarily is irrelevant. I collect and treat this as a hobby. Purchase what I want, when I want. Buy a box to have fun breaking it regardless of the return. If I sell something it is to use the funds for the next thing I want.

I understand what you mean and the application to daily stuff like a car, house, milk... but we continuously get questions in this hobby is this worth it? product A worth it? product B worth it?

You can't break it down like that cause 99% of the time you will lose and not get something "worth" what you paid. When you ask those questions and then question the manufacture why am I not getting my value back, it is exactly the same as telling them why don't you insert a Crosby auto or Gretzky or etc. into each box for me. I am sure they would love to, put they probably pay for the patch, jersey, and auto of the elite players close to the cost of a box. They mix these with all the other average joes. They make money when you don't get something good. Those are the boxes they actually profit on.

That is why I stated my second point. If you are looking for something that makes your money worth, Contenders is still not at the best bang for your buck stage. Maybe in a couple years when people become more familiar the product.

That or if UD struggles and disappears.

Treat this as I hobby. Honestly, if you are looking for your money back, I really think you should reconsider whether this hobby is for you. You will lose money on 99% of the boxes you break. Break Contenders, Cup, SPA, UD1, UD2, Score ... etc. for fun.

...

PS: I am not debating with you personally... just the whole concept of asking whether something is worth it. Way over-rated question cause it goes no where. The answer is always the same.

[flopfish]

The debate comes hand in hand with first fact I stated.

First thing, when you "collect" something, the whole concept revolves around taking something and treasuring as a good which satisfies yourself. As defined in a dictionary - collecting or a hobby is: "an activity or interest pursued for pleasure or relaxation and not as a main occupation."

So in that sense, whether something gives you a return monetarily is irrelevant. I collect and treat this as a hobby. Purchase what I want, when I want. Buy a box to have fun breaking it regardless of the return. If I sell something it is to use the funds for the next thing I want.

I understand what you mean and the application to daily stuff like a car, house, milk... but we continuously get questions in this hobby is this worth it? product A worth it? product B worth it?

You can't break it down like that cause 99% of the time you will lose and not get something "worth" what you paid. When you ask those questions and then question the manufacture why am I not getting my value back, it is exactly the same as telling them why don't you insert a Crosby auto or Gretzky or etc. into each box for me. I am sure they would love to, put they probably pay for the patch, jersey, and auto of the elite players close to the cost of a box. They mix these with all the other average joes. They make money when you don't get something good. Those are the boxes they actually profit on.

That is why I stated my second point. If you are looking for something that makes your money worth, Contenders is still not at the best bang for your buck stage. Maybe in a couple years when people become more familiar the product.

That or if UD struggles and disappears.

Treat this as I hobby. Honestly, if you are looking for your money back, I really think you should reconsider whether this hobby is for you. You will lose money on 99% of the boxes you break. Break Contenders, Cup, SPA, UD1, UD2, Score ... etc. for fun.

...

PS: I am not debating with you personally... just the whole concept of asking whether something is worth it. Way over-rated question cause it goes no where. The answer is always the same.

+1. I stopped breaking for money this year, and have bought my most boxes, somewhere's around 15 or so hobby boxes + 5 retail. I've enjoyed every second of it, and wouldn't trade all the cash I spent on anything else. I've had a ton of great pulls this year which helped fund the breaks, but it's been fun to break again. For Christmas I went through 3 retail tins of UD1, 1 blaster of UD1 and a blaster of Victory and it was A BLAST! Glad I got back into it for the right reasons.

[jsokol1626]

ya and then the autos of stars like weber etc can sell for 2$ instead of 6$

its called gambling, we cant all win
if we all won at casinos, what would he the point if casinos?


when you buy a pack or box, you are gambling
you are paying to gamble, if you dont like gambling, dont gamble, buy individual cards

i spent 53$ yesterday on 8 packs, got all base, and a nemisz auto
i gambled, i failed

contenders is still a good product

its a gamble

It is a gamble, sometimes a big one, and that's just not right. Legalized gambling is regulated and minors are prohibited from participating. However, in the sports card gambling world there are no regulations protecting the customer and anyone can buy whatever they want. You can get a redemption for a card that will never exist, damaged merchandise that cannot be replaced in kind, jerseys that were worn for 10 seconds at a photo shoot or total crap. Card companies need to be forced to guarantee the value of their products and that can be accomplished in 3 ways, prohibit redemptions, improve quality control to ensure better colation and lower pricing. There is no way in the world SPA should retail above $100, to cite just one example. High dollar athletes should not be paid exorbinant signing fees and rather, recognize the hobby as a valuable marketing tool that attracts fans and helps to fill arenas. If the gambling mentally persists much longer than card packaging should include a warning, stating very clearly that the item ou are purchasing may not be worth the price you paid.

One final comment, members of card sites have a tendency to post their breaks as a way to share their big hits or awesome boxes, rarely do you see posts that show the other side. As a result, potential buyers begin to see he product through rose colored glasses.

[RGM81]

The discussion of whether any single product is "worth it" is one that we seem to have every time a new release hits the market. And it's a valid question. Usually the answers/responses are the same each time out. Part of the problem in determining whether a break is "worth it" is us, the collector. If the most I'm willing to pay for the best hit in your $100 box is $30-$40, it's basically setting everybody up to lose badly. And yes, that $ figure wasn't arbitrarily chosen because that's pretty much the going rate for hard-signed autographs of the player I collect, barring premiums for low #'ing and so forth.

And a lot of that comes down to the supply - for just about every star player there are 30-40 autographs per season to choose from. There's not much that makes Auto Card A superior in the long run to Auto Card B. If I can get Auto Card A for $25 but somebody insists on getting their box value back by posting Auto Card B for $60...sorry, owner of Auto Card B. Especially if the owner of Auto Card B is the guy that has the Scott Gomez auto patch that he wants $80 for.

Contenders, like every product, has its highlights and there will be some great boxes out there that not only deliver desirable hits but also ones that ensure ROI. There will also be some boxes that do neither. Again, not really different from any other product out there.

[razzamaztaz]

SPA and Contenders are quite similar in value, and in price. Both are hit or miss. Average loose spa box usually generates a horribly bad result. What worse is, it was a lonjg time ago SPA had any nice design, last year's has been dull, grey, ugly, except for the patch autos, but then again, average loose box won't have any. At least Contenders got nice cards with good photo, and a 50% chance of patch auto or multi auto. Collecting wise it should win above SPA, but we all know the UD lovers and Panini bashers don't care about design, looks, or collectibility. If they did they make no sense. And as for value or overpriced, I don't have to hear another word about it from UD lovers until I forget SPGU exists. $180 (or more) for a pile of junk. And that is UD's best product this year. SPX? Horrible collation issues and very forgettable.

I must say so far ITG might steal the nr 1 spot as best product of the year though, as Captain C got tons speaking for it, hits, value, looks. Perhaps you should buy that one instead.

[razzamaztaz]

Kind of hard comparing prices 10 or even 15 years ago. You have to take into account the general inflation too, I mean if I go and shop groceries in the market today, it is at least 50% more expensive than 10 years ago.

Ironically the inflation for card values goes in the other direction...

[centrehice]

So if you get 97 cents for every dollar you put in, how come you don't always have $97 after you've spent $100? You'd be lucky to get that. Just like you would to be getting that much in a $100 box of cards.

That's when you stop gambling. The loss comes when people get greedy. They get above the odds by a wide margin, then instead of stopping, they take their chances on the next groups of odds thrown up all over again, instead of pocketing their winnings and stopping.

People get wiped out in casinos because they don't quit when they are $20.00 to the good, when they should. Casino gambling when faced with the best odds, is all about control.

You should not gamble at Casinos in Canada that offer the same odds as a Lottery Scratch Ticket.

[flopfish]

That's when you stop gambling. The loss comes when people get greedy. They get above the odds by a wide margin, then instead of stopping, they take their chances on the next groups of odds thrown up all over again, instead of pocketing their winnings and stopping.

People get wiped out in casinos because they don't quit when they are $20.00 to the good, when they should. Casino gambling when faced with the best odds, is all about control.

You should not gamble at Casinos in Canada that offer the same odds as a Lottery Scratch Ticket.

So you are telling me if I go into any casino in the states and spend $100, I will always make $97 back? no I won't. There are taxes on top of that. Canada's is tax free, so we make every penny we won back. Las Vegas slot machines pay out 95%... but how much of those are in big jackpots? Also the machines in Canada don't pay back 40% like you say, they pay around the same as Vegas ones.

Let's look at a slot machine, where it is all chance and is the most comparable to buying a box off the shelf:
-Slot machines payout 95% on average in Vegas. Yes that is true.
-Slot machines have big jackpots with a very, very small chance of winning. Also true
-If you put in $100 into a slot machine, you will walk out with $95. False.
Before you can argue this, here's the fact of the matter: the machine will pay out 95% over the course of an infinite amount of time, yes. This is where the "jackpot" comes into play. For every loss, the machine will put approx. 95% into the jackpot and 5% towards the casino revenue. That "Jackpot" will be the cause of the majority of that 95% cash out. Fact of the matter is, your odds of winning that jackpot is minimal. Also, your chance of making 95% on $100 is slim. If you played continuously on the same $1 machine with $100,000 and you go until you've spent exactly $100,000, odds are you will come close to making $95,000. However, in reality no one spends that much at once or sits at the same machine continuously playing. If you put in $100, you may not make even $25. It's all chance. Every time you hit the spin button, it's a random chance. There is no "you've paid so much you are due to win this much."

How does that relate to buying a box?
If you buy case after case after case after case at once on release date, you'll have a better chance of getting those big hits that can earn you cash back. I'll take my box buying over this year:
Product - cost - profit/loss
2011/12 Artifacts - $95 - +$15 (got some quick sales and a few nice pulls)
2011/12 Artifacts - $100 - -$75 (Got crap in the box, nothing good for resale)
2011/12 UD S1 - $75 - +$5 (9 total YGs in the box, 1 Exclusives, 1 canvas of Matt Read, got a lucky box with good YGs and a steal of a price)
2011/12 Certified pack - $10 - $0 (Pulled a Sedin FOTG prime /25 and sold it to a Sedin collector here)
2011/12 Artifacts - $100 - -$65 (Another box with bad players)
2011/12 UD S2 - $88 - -$50 (Got a Hagelin and Kassian YG, and sold the rest for the remainder)
2011/12 Captain C - $95 - N/A, based on ebay sales it's around -$30
2011/12 UD S2 - $85 - +$350+ (I hit the jackpot with the Nuge OPC team Canada Sigs and a few decent Young Guns and MVP Rookie, will make around $375)
2011/12 Limited/Certified 2 person 2 box draft - $100 - +5, have yet to sold every card, got lucky with the top pick and a Kopitar /5 Patch Auto from Certified (ebay averages for the rest is +$15)
2011/12 Limited - $102 - -$50 (Yet to sell anything, ebay averages)
2011/12 Certified - $102 - +$50 minimum (Nuge strikes again, should be +$25 extra on top after all the rest is sold)

In there, I sold and traded cards to fund some breaks, and got a free tin of the cup that landed me $190, and my GBs are about even except I haven't sold my latest stuff.

Total $$$ Spent: $1,052 $$$ Back (not including GBs or boxes given as gifts or won): $1,247

I'm having an awesome year breaking. Ironically, it's the first year I've stopped breaking for money and started doing it to collect and for fun.

Looking at my boxes, I hit this year's "jackpot" in RNH twice. The boxes I didn't hit stars or rare cards in, I took major losses, including UD products like Series 1. Reality is, if you sat down and broke open case after case of UD or Panini of the same product, you have a chance to hit cards that will make it worth it.

So, in the long run, slots and box breaking are on the same principals except for the added throw ins of the player/print run variations on a product :)

[Johnsson]

Personally, I feel that this years Contenders shows us exactly why cards have such low value today. It is products like these that floods the market, ask yourself: what does it add that we haven't got already or will get in SPA?
My answer: Nothing at all!

Instead of building on some of the more interesting inserts from last years Contenders (Golden Ticket, Leather Larceny or Against the Glass), Panini peeked on it's more successful rival and decided to make a carbon copy of it, rather than man up and develope its own product further. Base, inserts, Rookies, Autos and even the Patch-cards follow the same formula (print run/ number of cards in set) as SP Authentic.

That said, there are more products like this on the market: Artifacts, SPx, SPGU, Certified, Elite adds very little to the market other than being the "first release" with GU, Rookie-autos and whatelse.

[jsokol1626]

Copy Catting? Think it might have anything to do with the recent staff changes?