The Official JAMEIS WINSTON Thread

[Jameis1of1]

Certainly agree with you on QB rating vs. QBR; I don't like QB rating that much either. However, even when you look at other numbers through 53 games, Winston isn't in the top-5 in any of them. If we look at completion % he's 29th

Again, the "through 53 games" isn't that important to me, especially when you've got a guy like Aaron Rodgers ahead of Jameis when Jameis was THREE YEARS YOUNGER when he played his 53rd game … the age thing is more important to me as it is a better predictor of career stats. I mean, imagine if I would have based my investment in Kobe Bryant on his "through 82 games" stats rather than on his age … I would have thought Kobe was garbage instead of thinking Kobe would end up in the Hall of Fame.

I also don't worry that much about comp % with Jameis, especially when your stat chart shows him just .18% worse than Brady and .38% worse than Drew Brees who might be the most accurate QB in history, and considering Jameis was WAY YOUNGER than both those guys over those 53 starts and considering Jameis is always near the top of the league in "air yards per pass attempt" meaning he's throwing longer passes than most any other QB, and considering he played half a season with a seriously injured throwing shoulder.

I mean … really … your chart shows Mark Bulger 18 spots better than Drew Brees … I respect the research, but it just doesn't mean much to me in regards to how I view Brees, Brady and Jameis, three guys in the bottom 1/3 of the chart.

Total yards he is 7th:

Indeed and 7th is awesome … he's ahead of Peyton Manning (who had 4 years in college and played with great run game support) and the ONLY QB ahead of him that was as young as he is, is Stafford … I love this list.

TD's he is 18th:

Yes he is … and he's ahead of Brady, Favre and Russell Wilson, and again, the ONLY QB ahead of him that was as young as him is Stafford … I love this list.

Yards per attempt he is 19th:

Yes, and that's fine as well, as he's ahead of Peyton Manning, Brady, Favre, Brees, etc … and this time, NONE of the QBs ahead of him on the list are as young as he is … I love this list too.

And adjusted yards per attempt he is 22nd:

Same as above … he's ahead of Brady, Manning, Favre, etc., and NONE of the QBs above him are as young as he is ...

So a few findings from the above: Based on the stats, compared to other QB's in NFL history who have played the same amount of games he has at this point, he is statistically around a top-25, maybe top-20 QB. So, my whole reason for joining this debate is to reveal how the original angle for analyzing his stats doesn't paint the whole picture of how his stats measure up to other QBs. However, even for him to be in the top-20 in some of theses stats in NFL history is certainly an accomplishment.

Yards and TDs are the most meaningful in my view and he's 7th and 18th, so around 12th on average ALL-TIME, which is fantastic … and again, on many lists he is the youngest guy on the list … I like all of the lists and none of them refute my statement that Jameis was the most statistically accomplished passer by the age of 24 in the history of the NFL … remember, I never said "Jameis is the most statistically accomplished passer through x games" … and while I can value "through x games" stats, I believe "through x age" is more valid in regards to predicting one's career statistics when all is said and done … for example, just imagine if Warren Moon would have been a QB1 at age 21 like Jameis … Moon would likely have 20,000+ more career passing yards and another 150+ TDs which would have meant he would have retired #1 ALL-TIME in both categories and made Marino's records look like child's play … age is very, very important in regards to projecting career stats.

FYI: I'm not a Winston hater, I do data analysis for a living and love this stuff so I totally geeked out when I saw your numbers. Love a friendly debate on stats!

Oh, no need to apologize or add a disclaimer or anything like that. I sincerely appreciate your posts and love the back and forth; you're an A+ poster in my book! I was telling a fella on Twitter today that if someone could go back through history and assign a Raw QBR to every QB season in history, that sort of info would be worth its weight in gold to someone like me … I love stats!

[Jameis1of1]

I think the important thing to remember on Jameis1of1 point is that where Winston is at for his age, the trajectory of his career as a high ceiling.

You are absolutely spot on.

If the NFL ended today, yeah Winston hasn't done much and his age is meaningless. If we are looking at the stats, most of the folks here are looking at it like this:

..............X
2015 - 2018 - 2021 - 2024 - 2027 - 2030 - 2033

Jameis1of1 is future casting based on present age and present statistical accomplishment:

.................................................. ....................X
2015 - 2018 - 2021 - 2024 - 2027 - 2030 - 2033

You are absolutely spot on again.

There is room for both to be correct when looking at it in their particular lens.

Correct, and again, some people read my stats and pretended I was making a case that Jameis was the best QB of his age in history or the most accomplished QB through x amount of years in history, and I never made either claim and would not make either claim. My claim has always been that Jameis was the most statistically accomplished passer "of his age" in history. If one reads through this thread one can see that I specifically name other QBs who were "better" at a certain age or through x amount of seasons, or even other young QBs that are "better" at various aspects of their game than Jameis is. It's just that people see the stats I post, don't like what they show and then freak out … it is what it is but I'm thrilled this thread now seems to be populated mostly by people who love stats and are extremely sensible and logical … that is awesome and makes it all that much more fun!

Here's an example. In 1984 the general consensus was Montana was the superior QB to Marino. Some guy named Marino1of1 would write in to a newspaper columnist and say that for Marino's age he is most statically accomplished QB compared to others like Montana, Fouts, Anderson, etc and that he is putting up HoF numbers. Marino1of1 was looking at where things are now in '84 and to where the career trajectory would be in the year 2000 when making the claim and they would be arguing with someone named 34walterzone about it ;).

That's a great analogy, especially as Marino ended up obliterating Montana's career passing yards & TDs and is considered perhaps the greatest statistical monster the NFL has ever seen. GREAT ANALOGY!


Now, personally … I do also think Marino was a "better" QB than Montana though I would rank Montana higher on a GOAT list than Marino, as I know "team success" is generally always factored into GOAT lists … for me the Mount Rushmore of QBs is: Otto Graham, Tom Brady, Joe Montana and Peyton Manning … and I don't think there's a close 5th as the big-time "winners" like Bradshaw and Aikman don't measure up statistically and the big-time stats guys like Marino, Favre, Rodgers and Brees don't have the same "team success".

[jplcom]

I do also think Marino was a "better" QB than Montana

I will never abide by any proclamations of Marino being better than Montana in anything other than being listed higher in the alphabet or having a numerically inferior number (it's a simple fact that 13 < 16). I refer you to my previous post regarding this subject.

https://www.sportscardforum.com/show...1#post14635233

But Montana/Marino aside, I'm looking forward to reading more of this thread as the season winds down.

[Jameis1of1]

I will never abide by any proclamations of Marino being better than Montana in anything other than being listed higher in the alphabet or having a numerically inferior number (it's a simple fact that 13 < 16). I refer you to my previous post regarding this subject.

https://www.sportscardforum.com/show...1#post14635233

But Montana/Marino aside, I'm looking forward to reading more of this thread as the season winds down.

THAT linked to post was a classic; A++++

[Jameis1of1]

QBs around the league who didn't play in a dome or in nice weather had a rough week while RBs went nuts ... you know it's winter time!

TEN running backs went over 100 yards this week, while just two QBs topped 300 yards and 6 QBs passed for under 150 yards, including Marcus Mariota who played the entire game and even got a "W" while passing for just 88 yards.

All of that coupled with the shocking result tonight of the Nick Foles led Eagles beating the Rams and it was one wild week.

As for Jameis ... he had a rough game as expected in rainy Baltimore, had his first real turnover in the last 5 games, and while his coach said he threw the ball great and his receivers dropped a bunch of balls, his QBR was bad and he'll likely drop to around #6 in the league come Tuesday ... Dak looks like he'll drop to around #25 and Jared Goff who was torching the league earlier in the season has dropped a great deal and looks like he'll be down at #13 or so come Tuesday.

However, Jameis did provide one of his standard, HOLY COW plays that he seems to pull off at least once every game... enjoy:

[Devlin]

Coming back for 019......no big surprise. Not too many alternatives

[Rabs]

Coming back for 019......no big surprise. Not too many alternatives

He will have yet another head coach.

[Jameis1of1]

Today was PERFECT, PERFECT, PERFECT for a Bucs fan! I'm not even a Bucs fan (just an investor in and fan of Jameis) but I've been inundated with messages on Twitter and Bucs fans are just over the moon after today!

Jameis played an almost PERFECT game (345 passing yards, 4 TDs, 1 fluke INT that wasn't on him, a TD pass to give them a late 4th quarter lead) AND the Bucs defense managed to lose the game at the end (as they almost always do) which secured the #5 pick in the NFL Draft! And then, Dirk Koetter was FIRED.... just a PERFECT day for many Tampa fans!

As for Jameis ... during this final game of the season he moved into 2nd place ALL-TIME in NFL HISTORY in both passing TDs and passing yards before the age of 25!

He missed out on being #1 ALL-TIME in the passing yards category by just 14 yards, but as he's missed 10+ games (basically 10 games and 3 quarters) in his first 4 seasons, I have little doubt he can make that up next year, as had he played all those games, he'd probably have 3,000+ more passing yards and be 3,000+ ahead of everyone who's ever played at the same age.

Jameis also had an amazing Raw QBR in the Falcons game and ended the year 5th in the entire NFL, which again, is astounding as he may have by far the worst rushing attack and worst O-Line of any of those other top 6 QBs.

And, for another little "bonus", and one that actually shocked even me when I crunched the numbers, after he came back in week 12 and made his last 6 starts of the year, he actually had the 4th best INT % in the entire NFL, behind only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, and if you take out the end of game hail-mary heave that got picked, the ONLY QB IN THE NFL with a better INT % than Jameis over the last 6 games of the season (a quality sample size) was Aaron Rodgers ... that is pretty shocking and impressive for a true gunslinger like Jameis who was still slinging over those last 6 games (with (3) 300+ yard passing games and (4) games with 2 or more TD passes).

As for that #5 pick ... I am hopeful the Bucs can draft the top Offensive Tackle in the draft, Alabama's Jonah Williams. And, I'm hopeful they may even be able to trade down with the Giants, who sit at #6, pick up a couple extra 3rd round picks and a 4th round pick (the exact haul the 49'ers received to move down just one spot in the 2017 Draft when the Bears needed a QB) and still draft Jonah, after the Giants take Dwyane Haskins.

All in all ... it was A GREAT DAY IN TAMPA BAY TODAY!!!!!!!

[Jameis1of1]

Bucs GM Jason Licht, a rather obvious reader of my Twitter feed, just dropped the hammer on the local Tampa media members - many of whom have been infected with "Winston Derangement Syndrome" as they've bought into the absurd negative and erroneous narratives the national media spin against Jameis on the regular - and sounded like he was quoting me directly:

“Jameis Winston will be here – we have him under contract for a year ... he has done some amazing things for a young, 24 [year-old] – turns 25 in a week – quarterback. [He] has accomplished more than most of the elite quarterbacks have at his age through that time span. There’s a lot to like about Jameis. Jameis will be here next year.”

Bravo Mr. GM, bravo!!!!!!

Now, if only Licht and the Glazers listen to me on who the next coach should be ... I've been trumpeting Bruce Arians ever since he left the Cardinals, and while I had reporters and others telling me it would never happen and Arians would only return to coaching for the Browns job as he has a personal affinity for Cleveland, it was just revealed after Koetter was fired that Bruce Arians went on the record to say that he would listen to the Bucs pitch ... and to date there has been no word that he has any intentions of meeting with the Browns now and that they may have turned to Mike McCarthy instead. I sincerely hope the Bucs can land Arians and that their owners don't low-ball him on their offer, as Arians has raved about Jameis for years and stated:

"He'd be fun to coach. No doubt about it. He's a winner and a great leader and obviously a heck of a young quarterback."

[Jameis1of1]

After THE BELOW news dropped (though mind you, I have been tweeting about Arians to the Bucs for months and already had a media member confirm my suspicions and inform me that Arians wanted the Bucs job a short while back):

a2.JPG

I just had some fun putting the media on blast with a similar tweet (but sent to members of the media of course) as the below tweet from my main page:

a1.JPG
Now, it has also been reported that the hottest Offensive Coordinator candidate, the Chiefs Eric Bieniemy, turned down an interview with the Cardinals, but is sitting down for an interview with the Bucs.

It is HILARIOUS how absolutely transparent the media's bias against Jameis Winston is ... there have been article after article written about how Tampa is the worst head coach job opening available in the NFL and that no coach would want to take the job because of Jameis, yada, yada, yada ... and yet, as usual, the media is 100% wrong and the EXACT OPPOSITE thing is true ... the #1 coaching candidate WANTS the job and the #1 O.C. turned down the Cardinals but wanted the Bucs interview ... the biased media cracks me up!

All of Tampa, Florida should THANK GOD that JAMEIS WINSTON has made their team relevant again to the point that the top coaching canidates want to coach their sorry team, rather than teams with much better 2018 records, better fans, better history, etc!