The Dreaded #2 RC

[RGM81]

For the last couple of years I've noticed a bit of a trend when it comes to the early-season hot releases. The Hobby as a whole decides that Players A, B, and C are the cream of the crop, creating an instant tier separating them from the rest of the rookie class.

Within that upper echelon, usually there is one that stands out above the rest; he is THE ROOKIE to get for that year.

05-06 you had Crosby
06-07 you had Malkin
07-08 - this year is the anomaly with Price, Toews, and Kane
08-09 you had Stamkos
09-10 you had Tavares
10-11 you have Hall

In each of the past years--excluding 07-08--there was a player that seemingly would compete for that top rank but never fetched the hobby love & dollars the same way as the guy that was THE ROOKIE.

05-06 you had Ovechkin
06-07 you had Staal/Kopitar
08-09 you had Brunnstrom
09-10 you had Duchene

Not a bad group at all. Obviously if you pulled the Ovechkin YG or SP Authentic RC, you're pretty happy, but it still wasn't the Crosby. You had a top-tier guy but you knew you'd be lucky to get half of the big one. Didn't matter who won the Calder Trophy or was putting up the most points, your card just wasn't going to get the same return.

A couple years removed, and it's interesting to look at how the runner-up fares over the long haul.
Ovy is obviously still one of the hottest and most collectible players in the hobby. His stuff still doesn't fetch anywhere near what Sid's does, and so it shall likely always be.
Look at the 06-07 guys, though, and a fellow like Kopitar generates a ton of interest from the Kings fans that may arguably rival that of a Malkin.
08-09, well, things get weird here. Brunnstrom has practically dropped off the face of the Earth in terms of hobby value and actual on-ice play--the Stars actually waived him last week but there were no takers. Meanwhile, Stamkos has elevated to a whole new level while Drew Doughty has definitely taken over the #2 spot as far as that rookie crop goes. His stuff does very solid numbers but obviously won't touch that of Stamkos any time soon. Still, good things seem to lie ahead for this potential future Norris winner.
09-10...might be a little too early to tell. By the end of last season Duchene had clearly eclipsed Tavares on the ice, as did Calder winner Tyler Myers. I haven't looked at their sales on the new stuff lately, but I'd imagine that both have experienced something of a drop-off. Where they match up over the coming months will be fun to watch.

Which brings us to this year. It is still very possible that this season could end up like the fantastic 07-08 rookie crop. Right now Taylor Hall has the slight edge, not only because he's the #1 draft choice playing on a Canadian team but also because his first RC, Panini Certified, was a short-printed auto patch. I say slight edge in reference to PK Subban, who I think is easily the hottest Habs rookie since Price and is very likely to contend for the crown--never under-estimate how crazy we Habs fans are. LOL I also think that while those two go toe-to-toe it's going to leave Tyler Seguin in the dust. For all the talk about "Taylor vs. Tyler" this summer I don't think it was ever truly in doubt that Hall would be the #1 pick. Early sales on Certified have Hall with a roughly $30-$40 sales lead over Seguin.

So while Hall and Subban duke it out for top spot (the upcoming YGs will be their first real head-to-head), the rest are starting to filter out and the tiers have been established, and Seguin appears to be the dreaded runner-up.

[max91ess]

Nice comparaison, i believe that Subban will be On the top, maybe even higher than hall...habs fans are crazy, price wasnt even to close to be as good as kane or toews in 07-08 and still fetches more $$$

[skyride39]

great thread. Only come back to hobby since last year and definitely agree with your comments. I don't think this trend can continue though. Meaning the #1 pick isn't guaranteed to reach superstardom every year. One of these years, a 'Daigle' pick will come up again. Or is NHL scouting that good now? Even the NBA and NFL had recent #1 busts such as Oden and Russell. It should be the NHL's turn soon. Knowing the Leafs, I'm sure the year they finally get to pick #1, they'll find a way to pick the dud.

[JoexBondo]

Seguin is better at this point teamwise and statwise and is in a huge hockey market that will get alot of TV time as the season goes on, he'll surpass Hall before the season is over. Hopefully not, Id like to get a few of his cards :)

[Prime B]

Hall is top right now, but I think Seguin is the clear cut # 2 right now. Subban is good but I think Seguin will sell at the same levels as him and, eventually take him over.

Both Seguin and Subban are on original 6 clubs but because Subban is a dman, no matter how good you are, you'll always fall short of the offensive forward in sales. (see Stamkos vs Doughty)

I am surprised no one has mentioned them yet but look out for dark horses like Eberle and Paajarvi.

If either of those kids goes on a tear or puts up consistently solid numbers throughout the season (and both have outperformed the aforementioned Hall so far) they might take the # 2, or # 1 spot.

[SkyFire47]

interesting observations but i'd argue Steve Mason was arguably fighting for the #2 spot after Stamkos in 08-09.

[Prime B]

interesting observations but i'd argue Steve Mason was arguably fighting for the #2 spot after Stamkos in 08-09.

During the season, I would have to agree with you on that one Kev, no doubt.

Crazy how most have almost forgotten the immense hype about that guy in a little over a year.

[30ranfordfan]

An interesting take on things. While I've already started my 10-11 hobby purchases, the big day for me will be the release of UDS1. Here's a list of who I think the 'bigger' name RCs will be from that set:

201 Cam Fowler
203 Alexander Burmistrov
211 Jeff Skinner
219 Taylor Hall
220 Jordan Eberle
223 Brayden Schenn
231 P.K. Subban
238 Derek Stepan
239 Jared Cowen
240 Sergei Bobrovsky
247 Nazem Kadri
250 Checklist - Taylor Hall/P.K. Subban/Nazem Kadri

(I used 'bigger' in quotes on purpose here. Many of these won't be $20 cards, IMO - but it helps illustrate the classes).

No question in my mind, Hall will be the most expensive one of the bunch. We'll probably see similar selling prices as Tavares last year. They'll start at $100ish out the gate, and slip as the season goes on (unless he really catches fire).

I woul suspect Subban stays right behind him, and sells in the $75 range right off the bat. Again... as more RCs, in higher end sets hit the market - we should see a drop in selling price.

Eberle may actually be right in the same range as Subban. My perception is that Subban will be very popular becuase of some well deserved hype, and becuase of the 'Montreal Bump'. Eberle though, I think will have more appeal right across Canada (I cite the case of Eberle vs. World as proof) and could see a high priced number too.

Kadri, despite is current demotion to the minors, will get the Leaf's bump. Will sell (IMO) better than Pogge did out the gate. (I think you're looking at AT LEAST $30 here - maybe more).

Brayden Schenn will also get the Leafs bump. How does that make sense? Beleive me - many in Ontario wouldn't know who he was, if his brother wasn't alreadying playing on the Leafs blue line. The last name will drive his sales up, and I would expect he to go for, at least, $25 right out the gate. Maybe more.

The remainder on my list - I think are all going to be cards that sell for at least $10 right away. Maybe more. Depends on how popular YGs are this season (with some compition.... I expect the demand goes down, just a little bit).

Series 2 is when we'll see Seguin, Paajarvi, Niderator, and Ekman. If Seguin looks like a ROY - that card will be going for a lot. If not, I suspect he falls somewhere between Eberle and Kadri for value. Paajarvi in the same range as Schenn, and Niderator & Ekman will fall into the "other group".


To sum it up - I suspect we may very well have another 07-08ish class on our hands. Hall may beat out Subban and Eberle for sale prices a bit, but I don't think by a whole lot. In terms of overall depth to the RC class though, I think this is the best year we've seen since the double-cohort in 05-06.

[netsinah]

Great thread and thanks for those insights. It would be nice to do a "5 years later...rookie review thread" on an annual basis, to see where the hot rookies are 5 years down the road with both their play (points; ice time) and hobby love for RC pricing.

[max91ess]

Guys you forget that Subban IS DOMINENT WITH THE HABS RIGHT NOW

He shutdown crosby in last playoffs, he does 5 spins a game 6 points till now, he is DOMINENT, easily best def in habs after MArkov, i watch him play a lot...

here is an exemple of habs crazy fans:

Eller cards used to sell low, rlly low

not a draft board is 200$-300$..(kane or toews sells 300$)

I mean Subban is way better than eller..

his victory rookie sells 6-10$..

Thats a lot