I would say most of the time someone makes back at least 50% sales of the box.

Cases are the easiest bet, because you hit case hits. And breaking a product that just came out also will generate more money. I can almost bet if you got a case of Upper Deck Series 1 the day it came out, you would most likely break even.

Well, I'd say 50% in return value is a little ambitious. I mean, I look at the box break section and watch youtube breaks, and then look up the cards on Ebay, and in most cases people are lucky to get even 30% value in return. Especially if the product is 2-3 years old.

I think you may be referring to book value, and if this is the case then you're correct, a lot of times a box will generate 50% return value in terms of BV. But when you convert the return value into actual, feasible estimated sales amounts, its not pretty most of the time. Sure, you'll hit a nice card once in a while, but this certainly does not make up for all the other duds.