Contenders worth it?

[razzamaztaz]

Yeah I agree, Panini is usually incredibly good with the inserts. You don't think it got something to do with many people being ungrateful and screaming "UD is much better, like SPA!" so Paninin feels they must copy them? I would prefer a hundred times they stay their own.

[centrehice]

So you are telling me if I go into any casino in the states and spend $100, I will always make $97 back? no I won't. There are taxes on top of that. Canada's is tax free, so we make every penny we won back. Las Vegas slot machines pay out 95%... but how much of those are in big jackpots? Also the machines in Canada don't pay back 40% like you say, they pay around the same as Vegas ones.

Let's look at a slot machine, where it is all chance and is the most comparable to buying a box off the shelf:
-Slot machines payout 95% on average in Vegas. Yes that is true.
-Slot machines have big jackpots with a very, very small chance of winning. Also true
-If you put in $100 into a slot machine, you will walk out with $95. False.
Before you can argue this, here's the fact of the matter: the machine will pay out 95% over the course of an infinite amount of time, yes. This is where the "jackpot" comes into play. For every loss, the machine will put approx. 95% into the jackpot and 5% towards the casino revenue. That "Jackpot" will be the cause of the majority of that 95% cash out. Fact of the matter is, your odds of winning that jackpot is minimal. Also, your chance of making 95% on $100 is slim. If you played continuously on the same $1 machine with $100,000 and you go until you've spent exactly $100,000, odds are you will come close to making $95,000. However, in reality no one spends that much at once or sits at the same machine continuously playing. If you put in $100, you may not make even $25. It's all chance. Every time you hit the spin button, it's a random chance. There is no "you've paid so much you are due to win this much."

How does that relate to buying a box?
If you buy case after case after case after case at once on release date, you'll have a better chance of getting those big hits that can earn you cash back. I'll take my box buying over this year:
Product - cost - profit/loss
2011/12 Artifacts - $95 - +$15 (got some quick sales and a few nice pulls)
2011/12 Artifacts - $100 - -$75 (Got crap in the box, nothing good for resale)
2011/12 UD S1 - $75 - +$5 (9 total YGs in the box, 1 Exclusives, 1 canvas of Matt Read, got a lucky box with good YGs and a steal of a price)
2011/12 Certified pack - $10 - $0 (Pulled a Sedin FOTG prime /25 and sold it to a Sedin collector here)
2011/12 Artifacts - $100 - -$65 (Another box with bad players)
2011/12 UD S2 - $88 - -$50 (Got a Hagelin and Kassian YG, and sold the rest for the remainder)
2011/12 Captain C - $95 - N/A, based on ebay sales it's around -$30
2011/12 UD S2 - $85 - +$350+ (I hit the jackpot with the Nuge OPC team Canada Sigs and a few decent Young Guns and MVP Rookie, will make around $375)
2011/12 Limited/Certified 2 person 2 box draft - $100 - +5, have yet to sold every card, got lucky with the top pick and a Kopitar /5 Patch Auto from Certified (ebay averages for the rest is +$15)
2011/12 Limited - $102 - -$50 (Yet to sell anything, ebay averages)
2011/12 Certified - $102 - +$50 minimum (Nuge strikes again, should be +$25 extra on top after all the rest is sold)

In there, I sold and traded cards to fund some breaks, and got a free tin of the cup that landed me $190, and my GBs are about even except I haven't sold my latest stuff.

Total $$$ Spent: $1,052 $$$ Back (not including GBs or boxes given as gifts or won): $1,247

I'm having an awesome year breaking. Ironically, it's the first year I've stopped breaking for money and started doing it to collect and for fun.

Looking at my boxes, I hit this year's "jackpot" in RNH twice. The boxes I didn't hit stars or rare cards in, I took major losses, including UD products like Series 1. Reality is, if you sat down and broke open case after case of UD or Panini of the same product, you have a chance to hit cards that will make it worth it.

So, in the long run, slots and box breaking are on the same principals except for the added throw ins of the player/print run variations on a product :)

The first $1,000 won in the US is tax free. So if you win $1,000.00, then an hour later another $1,000 on a different machine, the casino pays you both sets of winnings separately and at no tax hit.

It's when you win $1,001.00 or more that you get an IRS Gaming Wins form that must accompany your tax return. If you are a non-resident and win over $1,000.00 you are taxed 30% at the machine.

They will give you a form and you used to be able to present this form and get back the withholding money when you get back to Canada. I don't know what it's like for other Nationals, but that is the way it used to be in the 90's. and early 2,0000.

And the odds are correct. Based on random selection and by law, Vegas odds must be shown be every casino based on the monetary selection they choose in regard to machine odds.

No you may not get 97 cents back on the first 100 you gamble, but over the course of time, you actually do. That is why it is imperative that you stop gambling completely when you are losing more than this ratio, and if you beat these odds by the margin suggested, you should then temper your wagering or pocket your winnings.

You must know how odds work based on random selection.

In relation to Cost per Box and what is returned. I am talking specifically about Contenders and SPGU this year.

Go to the Box Breaks thread, it's littered with box openings with cards that will net an SPGU buyer about $30.00-$40.00 return on his break, and Contenders with between $13.00-$20.00 return on his breaks.

Just because you pulled a couple of RNH cards, don't for one second think that this trend will continue over your lifespan. You happened to be fortuitous on a couple of occasions, nothing more.

You need to re-asses your Canadian odds. They are nowhere near Las Vegas. Las Vegas Casinos, Reno Casinos, Laughlin Casinos, Macau Casinos, and Atlantic City Casinos pay the best machine odds in World.

The are followed by Monaco, then Native American Casinos at around 90% return. The Canadian Casinos come in much lower than any on this list.

[flopfish]

The first $1,000 won in the US is tax free. So if you win $1,000.00, then an hour later another $1,000 on a different machine, the casino pays you both sets of winnings separately and at no tax hit.

It's when you win $1,001.00 or more that you get an IRS Gaming Wins form that must accompany your tax return. If you are a non-resident and win over $1,000.00 you are taxed 30% at the machine.

They will give you a form and you used to be able to present this form and get back the withholding money when you get back to Canada. I don't know what it's like for other Nationals, but that is the way it used to be in the 90's. and early 2,0000.

And the odds are correct. Based on random selection and by law, Vegas odds must be shown be every casino based on the monetary selection they choose in regard to machine odds.

No you may not get 97 cents back on the first 100 you gamble, but over the course of time, you actually do. That is why it is imperative that you stop gambling completely when you are losing more than this ratio, and if you beat these odds by the margin suggested, you should then temper your wagering or pocket your winnings.

You must know how odds work based on random selection.

In relation to Cost per Box and what is returned. I am talking specifically about Contenders and SPGU this year.

Go to the Box Breaks thread, it's littered with box openings with cards that will net an SPGU buyer about $30.00-$40.00 return on his break, and Contenders with between $13.00-$20.00 return on his breaks.

Just because you pulled a couple of RNH cards, don't for one second think that this trend will continue over your lifespan. You happened to be fortuitous on a couple of occasions, nothing more.

Yeah, exactly, over the course of an extended period of time you would. Look at people who break 3-4 cases on release day. They probably recoup 95% of what they put in. That also requires you to stop with your losses/gains. Who stops breaking open cards when they are on a hot streak? This is also the first time I've seen people post their dud boxes on here, as I've seen many bad breaks not get posted. I post them regardless of whether they are good or bad. I've also seen a few Contenders breaks this year that have yielded a ton in resale. Reality is, there is no such thing as a guaranteed return with sports cards as much as you want to say that there should be. On paper there should be, but you are investing money into A) a slot machine B) a stock market. Contenders and SPA this year will take a hit. Outside of RNH, few rookies sell for box value. Not even Landeskog or Cooter do.

The "stock market" for sports cards in product like contenders and SPA are the rookies. Let's look at rookie years:
2011/12: RNH, Cooter, Landeskog, Hodgson, there are 5 or 6 other good ones.
2010/11: Hall, Eberle, Seguin, Skinner, and Subban with a stronger supporting cast
2009/10: Hedman, Duchene, Tavares, Karlsson, Kane, Marchand, Couture with a stronger supporting cast than 2010/11
2008/09: Stamkos, Giroux Doughty, Pietrangelo, Turris, Schneider.
2007/08: Well, everyone knows about this year
2006/07: Kessel, Malkin, Staal
2005/06: Don't get me started on listing players.

Look at the SPA FWA of those years. Only Hall and Seguin pay for box value now in 2010/11, only Tavares in 2009/10, Stamkos and Giroux in 2008/09.

Reality is only a few cards in products like SPA or Contenders pay for a box, and that is heavily dependent on the rookie crop.

[centrehice]

It's part of the reason that I stopped opening boxes in 2004. Slowly, based on rising cost, card companies were starting to make up their total issue with "Filler Cards"

A good example of a filler card is a full set of between 250-300 plus players and producing a Jersey for every one of them This results in about 200 plus Filler Game Used Cards with a negligible re-sale of between 50 cents and $3.00.

Other great filler examples are all these set manufactured by both UD and Panini that have Serial Numbered parallels starting at #/2999 or even #/999 and actually thinking that the collector is pulling value, when in fact they are not.

It's one thing to manufacture only 150 cases of a product and include a Serial Numbered Card to #/999, but when you are manufacturing 3,000 cases and doing the same short printing at #/999, the card is virtually worthless.

This is what is happening now, and will continue to do so until the secondary market shuns simple worthless game-used cards that are now piling up in collections with no hope of ever changing hands.

Once the common jersey has run it's course, of which we are almost at the saturation point, then the next thing to drag down in value will be Patches.

It has to happen simply because the manufacturers will not stop with these types of products.

Certainly your 1/1's with a spiffy patch will hold some value over time dependent on how the player ends his career, especially if he makes the Hall. You will find that over time that these players in the Upper Deck "The Cup" issue that bow out after 1-4 NHL seasons, or those that have been produced and are already out of the NHL, their ARP cards will sell for less than $8.00 when the initial cost was between $85.00 and $100.00 per card when opened from a fresh box.

The economies of supply and demand will eventually rule the Game-Used market no differently than they have the Base Card market of the 1970's Topps cards.

It will happen, there's nothing that can stop it.

[cammy118]

I understand the risk with breaking each box. I've been doing this for a long time and have no signs of stopping.

I was merely asking for the best odds of hitting your monies worth. I realize that you will evatually make your cash back, but I was merely curious to see everyones opinions.

The key is:

Breaking is fun, whether you make cash or not. Getting a nice hit you pull from a box is always a better feeling then just buying a card off ebay.

[odjickfan]

SPA Products from 1997-2003 were $75.00 per box for those years other than when people went off their heads thinking that Milan Hejduk was going to be the next Gretzky and the 98-99 SPA went for $115.00 for a while until people were caught holding the bag because of Hejduk.

If SPA is now over $100.00 retail, there isn't enough value in that when you look at the bigger picture.

No amount of cajoling can convince me.

02-03 SPA was so strong. With a short list of signed rookies, most of them were top players. First year of the signed rookie patches too. There was a crazy hype around them.

[cammy118]

SPA is the best product IMO. Consistent, quality hits. Certified is close second.

[frankiefives]

Yeah, exactly, over the course of an extended period of time you would. Look at people who break 3-4 cases on release day. They probably recoup 95% of what they put in.

You're kidding, right? I break multiple cases of almost every product and my return is nowhere near 95%. If it was, I'd be ecstatic! Heck, I'd take 80%. Return on investment (box or case doesn't matter) is around 50% overall. That's been the big problem of late. Value isn't there anymore. Autos and jerseys have flooded the market to the point where people don't want to spend much on them anymore. It's seriously time for an overhaul of the system. Less auto/GU hits and a drop in retail prices

[frankiefives]

It's one thing to manufacture only 150 cases of a product and include a Serial Numbered Card to #/999, but when you are manufacturing 3,000 cases and doing the same short printing at #/999, the card is virtually worthless.

Wouldn't it be the opposite??? If you only produce 150 cases, almost every break will yield that card #/999. However, if you mass produce a product, the cards #/999 will become harder to pull therefore make them more valuable. Why do you think the high numbered inserts from the 90's sell so well?

[jonpop]

Follow Topps lead. Let the presses continue to run and increase production numbers by say, 20-30%, for example on Bowman this year, and the "coloured" refractors go through the roof because they don't show up every break. Baseball collectors bust through piles of worthless boxes looking for a diamond in the rough with that stuff.