OFFICIAL 2012 Election Day Thread.

[tpeichel]

Intrade gives Obama a 73% chance to win.

For those that don't know what "Intrade" is, they are the "World's largest prediction market" where you can actually buy shares based on the predictions they make:

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/co...tractId=743474

^these guys WOULD NOT say this just for saying it, they have A LOT of money riding on this.

Nate Silver probably has his job/livelihood riding on his 92% prediction as well.


I'm a very scientific person, and when prediction models ALL point towards the same thing, chances are pretty good that those prediction models are correct!

Silver's predictions in the 2010 election sucked, so it's hard to say his model is fool proof. 2008 had historical Democratic turnout. If his model predicts the same level of turnout as 2008, then his model could easily be well off.

[MadMan1978]

Earlier I was driving home from work and was listening to the John Boy and Billy Show, which is based out of Charlotte, North Carolina I believe, and we get it here in Va from 99.3 The Fox. Every time they took a break from their show, it was nothing but Mitt Romney ads. I wanted to know, is North Carolina primarily for Romney?

Yes that is correct but too close to call in my opinion

[JustAlex]

Silver's predictions in the 2010 election sucked, so it's hard to say his model is fool proof. 2008 had historical Democratic turnout. If his model predicts the same level of turnout as 2008, then his model could easily be well off.

LOL, all the polls suggest one thing.....An Obama victory, but here you are talking about 2010 (a mid-term election).

[AUTaxMan]

LOL, all the polls suggest one thing.....An Obama victory, but here you are talking about 2010 (a mid-term election).

All the polls are heavily skewed with Democrat samplings.

[Wickabee]

All the polls are heavily skewed with Democrat samplings.

Of course they are. But a poll that favours Republicans isn't skewed whatsoever, right.

[AUTaxMan]

Of course they are. But a poll that favours Republicans isn't skewed whatsoever, right.

I never said that. I also have not seen a poll that sampled more republicans any time recently.

[Wickabee]

I never said that. I also have not seen a poll that sampled more republicans any time recently.

Of course. It's easy to tell when a poll is skewed. It says Democrats win.

[AUTaxMan]

Of course. It's easy to tell when a poll is skewed. It says Democrats win.

That's not true. I'd just like to see some that only have a 1-2% spread. There aren't any.

[tpeichel]

LOL, all the polls suggest one thing.....An Obama victory, but here you are talking about 2010 (a mid-term election).

"All the polls" most certainly do not.

[tpeichel]

LOL, all the polls suggest one thing.....An Obama victory, but here you are talking about 2010 (a mid-term election).

You're probably right, the huge conservative turnout in 2010 has no relevance in this election.